Races · Governor · 2026 · Oklahoma
Governor · open seat · provisional matchup
Oklahoma Governor
Likely matchup — the Republican nominee isn't settled. Shown as a provisional party matchup, not confirmed nominees.
Info · primary pending
The Republican nominee hasn't been chosen yet
5 Republican candidates remain. See the republican primary →
Primary June 16, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 99% R
With limited polling, prediction markets imply Safe R (D win prob 10%, market-derived).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+24.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+35.5 (10th pctile) to R+13.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
This race was decisive in 29.7% of chamber-control simulations — one of the most consequential seats this cycle.
Uncertainty score: 100/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (22.0pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · safe-r · high-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
100
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width73
22.0pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution73 / 100
Measured22.0pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement69
13.8pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution69 / 100
Measured13.8pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +24.6
80% CI: R +35.5 → R +13.6 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.57pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +38.4
80% CI R +43.4 → R +22.8
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +13.8
no interval
market-implied
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yetRRepublican0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · May 20
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- RealClearPolitics · Jun 4
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 1
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RRealClearPolitics
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
27 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
27 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles27
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
0.00
Coverage lean (D−R) · first week of data
Net favorability
Score0.00
Week-over-weekfirst week of data
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
Neutral 100%
0% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets0%
Neutral100%
R-leaning outlets0%
0% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
Where Oklahoma’s Governor candidates stand on education
K
Oklahoma Chronicle: Analyzing the 2026 primary election results
A
Oklahoma Governor Primary Election Live Results 2026
K
Oklahoma election board says party changes are frozen before Aug. 25 runoff voting
O
Voters narrow Oklahoma GOP gubernatorial field
O
Oklahoma voters select gubernatorial candidates heading to runoff
N
Voters narrow Oklahoma GOP gubernatorial field
N
Oklahoma Governor's primary results: Drummond, Mazzei advance to GOP runoff, Munson takes Dem ticket
K
Cyndi Munson wins Oklahoma Democratic Gubernatorial Primary Election
T
Trump-backed candidate heads to runoff in GOP primary for Oklahoma governor
Page 1 of 3
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements18 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage27 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks