Pollster · 250 of 1053

Data Orbital

GRADE A+ NEUTRAL LEAN
↗ Wikipedia
Polls scored
20
Mean error
2.8 pt
Signed bias
R+0.18
Aggregation weight
1.42
Composite quality score
0–100 · weighted of 6 components
79
of 100 · tier · strong

Strong on the components we measure; one or two areas pull the composite below the elite threshold.

Aggregator weight 71
Verification rate 65
Sample size median 65
Citation rate 100
Outlier rate (inv.) 100
Rater alignment 98
Pollster vs editorial consensus
aligned

Across 15 graded races, Data Orbital's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of -0.3pp. That's well-aligned with the consensus — useful as a sanity check, less useful as a contrarian signal.

Mean delta
-0.3pp
Median delta
+0.0pp
Std-dev
3.1pp
N graded
15
Sample races (links to detail):
us-senate-2024-azus-governor-2022-azus-governor-2022-az
Recent activity
Total all time
20
Last 30d
0
Last 90d
0
Last 180d
0

Last poll 10/28/2024 (558d ago) · status dormant

Per-cycle debrief appearances
Cycle Rank Polls MAE Signed bias
2022 #18 / 36 3 3.74 pt R+3.74 pp
2016 #1 / 19 3 1.96 pt D+1.96 pp
Recent polls