Pollster · 181 of 1769
Data Orbital
Polls scored
7
Mean error
2.8 pt
Signed bias
R+1.51
Aggregation weight
1.42
Composite quality score
0–100 · weighted of 5 measured components66
of 100 · tier · strong
Strong on the components we measure; one or two areas pull the composite below the elite threshold.
Pollster vs editorial consensus
alignedAcross 15 graded races, Data Orbital's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of -0.3pp. That's well-aligned with the consensus — useful as a sanity check, less useful as a contrarian signal.
Mean delta
-0.3pp
Median delta
+0.0pp
Std-dev
3.1pp
N graded
15
Recent activity
Total all time
36
Last 30d
0
Last 90d
0
Last 180d
0
Per-cycle debrief appearances
| Cycle | Rank | Polls | MAE | Signed bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | #18 / 36 | 3 | 3.74 pt | R+3.74 pp |
| 2016 | #1 / 19 | 3 | 1.96 pt | D+1.96 pp |
Recent polls
- 1/19/2025Arizona · Governor · 2026Andy Biggs 32.0 · Karrin Taylor Robson 12.0 · Kimberly Yee 7.0
- 10/27/2024Arizona · Senate · 2024Ruben Gallego 45.0 · Kari Lake 45.0
- 4/28/2024Arizona · Senate · 2024Ruben Gallego 48.0 · Kari Lake 44.0
- 11/5/2022Arizona · Governor · 2022Kari Lake 50.0 · Katie Hobbs 47.0
- 11/5/2022Arizona · Senate · 2022Mark Kelly 48.0 · Blake Masters 47.0 · Marc Victor 2.0
- 11/4/2022Arizona · Senate · 2022Mark Kelly 48.2 · Blake Masters 46.5
- 10/18/2022Arizona · Governor · 2022Kari Lake 47.0 · Katie Hobbs 44.0
- 10/17/2022Arizona · Governor · 2022Katie Hobbs 44.2 · Kari Lake 46.7
- 2/12/2022Arizona · Governor · 2022Kari Lake 43.0 · Katie Hobbs 41.0
- 2/12/2022Arizona · Governor · 2022Karrin Taylor Robson 37.0 · Katie Hobbs 42.0