NonpartisanIndependent, data-first coverage of US elections — polls, forecasts, and prediction markets, refreshed daily.Updated daily.What's new·Methodology·Send feedback
Pollster · 131 of 1769

American Research Group

GRADE CWEIGHT TIER T1NEUTRAL LEAN</> Embed
Polls scored
13
Mean error
4.8 pt
Signed bias
D+1.53
Aggregation weight
1.51
Composite quality score
0–100 · weighted of 5 measured components
53
of 100 · tier · moderate

Moderate quality. Worth checking individual signals before relying on this pollster's headline.

Aggregator weight76
Verification rate3
Sample size median65
Citation rate14
Outlier rate (inv.)not yet measured
Rater alignment99
Pollster vs editorial consensus
noisy

Across 6 graded races, American Research Group's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of +0.2pp. Noisy — high variance vs the consensus, hard to characterize.

Mean delta
+0.2pp
Median delta
+1.0pp
Std-dev
8.8pp
N graded
6
Recent activity
Total all time
241
Last 30d
0
Last 90d
0
Last 180d
0

Last poll 9/18/2022 (1387d ago)· status dormant

Per-cycle debrief appearances
CycleRankPollsMAESigned bias
2002#1 / 342.23 ptD+0.45 pp
Recent polls