Races · Senate · 2020 · New Hampshire
Senate · class II · open seat
Jeanne Shaheen vs Corky Messner
Where this race stands
VerifiedTossup · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+1) suggests Tossup.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+17.1 with an 80% CI ranging from D+5.2 (10th pctile) to D+29.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +17.1
80% CI: D +5.2 → D +29.1 · win prob 99%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
| Polls used | 23 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | D+15.6 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 23 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 20 | American Research Group | 600 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.77 tracked | +0.2noisy | 57 · 40 |
| Oct 27, 20 | University of New Hampshire+1For · University of New Hampshire | 864 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +0.912 tracked | +0.3aligned | 54 · 43 |
| Oct 25, 20 | Saint Anselm College+1 | 1,018 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +1.74 tracked | +1.0aligned | 54 · 39 |
| Oct 25, 20 | YouGov/UMass Lowell | 757 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +4.63 tracked | — | 57 · 38 |
| Oct 11, 20 | University of New Hampshire+1For · University of New Hampshire | 899 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +0.912 tracked | +0.3aligned | 55 · 40 |
| Oct 11, 20 | Suffolk University+2For · The Boston Globe | 500 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +1.221 tracked | +0.8aligned | 51 · 36 |
| Oct 3, 20 | Saint Anselm College+1For · Saint Anselm College | 1,147 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +1.74 tracked | +1.0aligned | 53 · 38 |
| Sep 30, 20 | Emerson College+1 | 700 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.7118 tracked | +0.8aligned | 55 · 40 |
| Sep 27, 20 | American Research Group | 600 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.77 tracked | +0.2noisy | 56 · 40 |
| Sep 27, 20 | University of New Hampshire+1For · University of New Hampshire | 972 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +0.912 tracked | +0.3aligned | 54 · 41 |
Endorsements · 18 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet18
Endorsements tracked
Jeanne Shaheen18 · 100%
Corky Messner0 · 0%
Total18
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DJeanne Shaheen18 endorsers
Most notable · Amy Klobuchar · U.S. senator (MN); former 2020 presidential candidate
Organizations9
Organizations · 9
- Council for a Livable World
- Feminist Majority PAC
- Humane Society of the United States · Legislative Fund
- J Street PAC
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- League of Conservation Voters
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare
- Natural Resources Defense Council · Action Fund
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
Other6
Other · 6
- Brady Campaign
- EMILY's List
- End Citizens United
- National Organization for Women
- Population Connection
- Sierra Club
Elected officials3
Federal 3State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 3
- Amy Klobuchar · U.S. senator (MN); former 2020 presidential candidate
- Elizabeth Warren · U.S. senator (MA); former 2020 presidential candidate
- Kirsten Gillibrand · U.S. senator (NY); former 2020 presidential candidate
RCorky Messner0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RDon Bolduc0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20Jeanne ShaheenS0NH00219 ↗
Receipts
$18.2M
Disburse
$17.5M
Cash on hand
$1.1M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$55.8K
Education · $55.8K
- Dartmouth College · $39.6K
- Harvard University · $16.2K
Individuals $55.8K · PACs $0
Securities & investment$26.8K
Securities & investment · $26.8K
- Fidelity Investments · $26.8K
Individuals $26.8K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$26.7K
Lawyers / law firms · $26.7K
- Ropes & Gray LLP · $26.7K
Individuals $26.7K · PACs $0
Air transport$25.8K
Air transport · $25.8K
- Raytheon · $25.8K
Individuals $25.8K · PACs $0
Top contributors
DARTMOUTH COLLEGE$39.6K
CAPITAL GROUP$37.1K
FIDELITY INVESTMENTS$26.8K
ROPES & GRAY LLP$26.7K
RAYTHEON$25.8K
Don BolducS0NH00326 ↗
Receipts
$1.1M
Disburse
$1.0M
Cash on hand
$32.2K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Casinos / gambling$5.6K
Casinos / gambling · $5.6K
- Hanna Capital Mgmt · $5.6K
Individuals $5.6K · PACs $0
Top contributors
WORLDWIDE LANGUAGE RESOURCES LLC$19.3K
IMPERATIVE ENTEPRRISES LLC$11.2K
PRIMARY BANK$9.4K
COWLES PARKWAY FORD, INC$8.4K
RESEACH AFFILIATES LLC$5.6K
Corky MessnerS0NH00334 ↗
Receipts
$7.2M
Disburse
$7.1M
Cash on hand
$58.3K
Debts
$793.4K
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$33.0K
Lawyers / law firms · $33.0K
- Messner Reeves, LLP · $27.4K
- Levy Law PC · $5.6K
Individuals $33.0K · PACs $0
Restaurants & drinking$16.0K
Restaurants & drinking · $16.0K
- Chipotle Mexican Grill · $16.0K
Individuals $16.0K · PACs $0
Govt employees$7.9K
Govt employees · $7.9K
- US Army · $7.9K
Individuals $7.9K · PACs $0
Education$5.6K
Education · $5.6K
- Sandra Williams Smith Foundation · $5.6K
Individuals $5.6K · PACs $0
Crop production$5.6K
Crop production · $5.6K
- Golden Age Farm · $5.6K
Individuals $5.6K · PACs $0
Top contributors
MESSNER REEVES, LLP$27.4K
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL$16.0K
HUBBARD BROADCASTING$11.2K
US ARMY$7.9K
SOFI$7.5K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$3.2M
D side
$1.1M · 36%
R side
$2.1M · 64%
Top spender
SENATE CONSERVATIVE…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $1.4M | 43% | for Don Bolduc |
| SMP super pac · boosts D
| D | $796.4K | 25% | for Jeanne Shaheen |
| NEW HAMPSHIRE FREEDOM AND LIBERTY PAC, INC. super pac · boosts R
| R | $335.9K | 10% | against Jeanne Shaheen |
| PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES super pac · boosts D
| D | $290.2K | 9% | for Jeanne Shaheen |
| AMERICAS PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $283.2K | 9% | against Jeanne Shaheen |
| SEAL PAC SUPPORTING ELECTING AMERICAN LEADERS PAC pac · boosts R
| R | $150.0K | 5% | for Don Bolduc |
| PROGRESSIVE TURNOUT PROJECT super pac · boosts D
| D | $70.7K | 2% | for Jeanne Shaheen |
| GUN OWNERS OF AMERICA, INC. pac · boosts R
| R | $33.8K | 1% | for Corky Messner |
| NATIONAL ASSOCIATION FOR GUN RIGHTS INC PAC pac · boosts R
| R | $1.6K | 0% | for Corky Messner |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Oct 28
- DDHQ · Nov 2
- 538 · Nov 1
- Inside Elections · Oct 27
Likely D1
Likely D · 1 rater
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Nov 1
The Cook Political Report
Safe DDDHQ
Safe D538
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified23 / 23deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements18 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks