Races · Senate · 2022 · NH
Senate · class II · open seat

Maggie Hassan vs Don Bolduc

Tossup · 54 polls · 0 markets Last poll 1281d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 54 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Tossup

tossup

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 54 results

54 of 54 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
11/6/2022Phillips Academy0.79(R+1.2)1056LV
4 scored polls1281d old+2
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 1281d old
    Poll was fielded 1281 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Maggie Hassan 48.0 · Don Bolduc 45.0pollarch
11/6/2022University of New Hampshire1.00(R+0.9)2077LV
1281d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+4
  • 1281d old
    Poll was fielded 1281 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias R+0.9pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
  • n=2,077
    Sample size of 2,077 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Maggie Hassan 50.0 · Don Bolduc 48.0pollarch
11/5/2022InsiderAdvantage0.92R(R+2.6)700LV
bias R+2.6pt1282d old+3
  • bias R+2.6pt
    Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt.
  • 1282d old
    Poll was fielded 1282 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Maggie Hassan 49.0 · Don Bolduc 48.0pollarch
11/5/2022Data for Progress1.00(D+1.0)1995LV
1282d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+4
  • 1282d old
    Poll was fielded 1282 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • n=1,995
    Sample size of 1,995 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • accurate · bias D+1.0pt
    Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.
Maggie Hassan 50.0 · Don Bolduc 47.0pollarch
11/5/2022Wick Insights0.74R(R+4.0)725LV
1282d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 1282d old
    Poll was fielded 1282 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 17 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Maggie Hassan 48.0 · Don Bolduc 48.0pollarch
11/1/2022Emerson College1.00(D+0.7)850LV
1286d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 1286d old
    Poll was fielded 1286 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Maggie Hassan 49.0 · Don Bolduc 45.0pollarch
11/1/2022The Trafalgar Group0.89R(R+3.4)1241LV
historical bias R+3.4pt1286d old+2
  • historical bias R+3.4pt
    Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 1286d old
    Poll was fielded 1286 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Maggie Hassan 46.0 · Don Bolduc 47.0pollarch
10/29/2022Saint Anselm College0.81(R+1.7)1541LV
4 scored polls1289d old+4
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 1289d old
    Poll was fielded 1289 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • n=1,541
    Sample size of 1,541 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 20 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Maggie Hassan 47.0 · Don Bolduc 48.0pollarch
10/26/2022co/efficient0.71R(R+5.4)1098LV
historical bias R+5.4pt1292d old+3
  • historical bias R+5.4pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+5.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 1292d old
    Poll was fielded 1292 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • R+4.4pt vs editors
    Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.4pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Maggie Hassan 45.0 · Don Bolduc 45.0pollarch
10/25/2022UMass Lowell/YouGov0.93L(D+3.4)600LV
1293d old✓ verified 5d ago+1
  • 1293d old
    Poll was fielded 1293 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Maggie Hassan 51.0 · Don Bolduc 41.0pollarch
10/23/2022InsiderAdvantage0.92R(R+2.6)600LV
bias R+2.6pt1295d old+3
  • bias R+2.6pt
    Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt.
  • 1295d old
    Poll was fielded 1295 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Maggie Hassan 48.0 · Don Bolduc 47.0pollarch
10/19/2022Emerson College1.00(D+0.7)727LV
1299d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 1299d old
    Poll was fielded 1299 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Maggie Hassan 48.0 · Don Bolduc 45.0pollarch
10/19/2022Fabrizio, Lee & Associates1.00R600LV
no scored polls1299d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 1299d old
    Poll was fielded 1299 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 14 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Maggie Hassan 49.0 · Don Bolduc 47.0pollarch
10/19/2022Data for Progress1.00(D+1.0)1392LV
1299d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3
  • 1299d old
    Poll was fielded 1299 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • accurate · bias D+1.0pt
    Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.
Maggie Hassan 50.0 · Don Bolduc 44.0pollarch
10/6/2022Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research1.00L500LV
no scored polls1312d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 1312d old
    Poll was fielded 1312 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Maggie Hassan 52.0 · Don Bolduc 45.0pollarch
9/30/2022The Trafalgar Group0.89R(R+3.4)1081LV
historical bias R+3.4pt1318d old+2
  • historical bias R+3.4pt
    Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 1318d old
    Poll was fielded 1318 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Maggie Hassan 48.0 · Don Bolduc 45.0pollarch
9/30/2022Data for Progress1.00(D+1.0)1147LV
1318d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3
  • 1318d old
    Poll was fielded 1318 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • accurate · bias D+1.0pt
    Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.
Maggie Hassan 50.0 · Don Bolduc 43.0pollarch
9/28/2022Saint Anselm College0.81(R+1.7)901RV
4 scored polls1320d old+3
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 1320d old
    Poll was fielded 1320 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 20 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Maggie Hassan 49.0 · Don Bolduc 43.0pollarch
9/26/2022Suffolk University1.44neutral(D+0.1)500LV
1322d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 1322d old
    Poll was fielded 1322 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias D+0.1pt
    Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Maggie Hassan 50.0 · Don Bolduc 41.0pollarch
9/19/2022American Research Group1.00(D+1.1)555RV
3 scored polls1329d old+3
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 1329d old
    Poll was fielded 1329 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 6 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Maggie Hassan 53.0 · Don Bolduc 40.0pollarch
9/19/2022University of New Hampshire1.00(R+0.9)870LV
1329d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3
  • 1329d old
    Poll was fielded 1329 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias R+0.9pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
Maggie Hassan 49.0 · Don Bolduc 41.0pollarch
9/15/2022Emerson College1.00(D+0.7)800LV
1333d old✓ verified 5d ago+4
  • 1333d old
    Poll was fielded 1333 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • university-sponsored: The first Emerson College
    Commissioned by The first Emerson College, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Maggie Hassan 51.0 · Don Bolduc 40.0pollarch
7/8/2022Data for Progress1.00(D+1.0)903LV
1402d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3
  • 1402d old
    Poll was fielded 1402 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • accurate · bias D+1.0pt
    Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.
Maggie Hassan 49.0 · Don Bolduc 45.0pollarch
7/8/2022Data for Progress1.00(D+1.0)903LV
1402d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3
  • 1402d old
    Poll was fielded 1402 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • accurate · bias D+1.0pt
    Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.
Maggie Hassan 49.0 · Chuck Morse 46.0pollarch
7/8/2022Data for Progress1.00(D+1.0)903LV
1402d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3
  • 1402d old
    Poll was fielded 1402 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • accurate · bias D+1.0pt
    Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.
Maggie Hassan 49.0 · Kevin Smith 45.0pollarch
6/27/2022Change Research0.61L(D+3.7)704LV
historical bias D+3.7pt1413d old+3
  • historical bias D+3.7pt
    Across 18 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 1413d old
    Poll was fielded 1413 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 30 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Maggie Hassan 49.0 · Don Bolduc 40.0pollarch
4/18/2022University of New Hampshire1.00(R+0.9)868LV
1483d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3
  • 1483d old
    Poll was fielded 1483 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias R+0.9pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
Maggie Hassan 47.0 · Don Bolduc 46.0pollarch
4/18/2022University of New Hampshire1.00(R+0.9)868LV
1483d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3
  • 1483d old
    Poll was fielded 1483 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias R+0.9pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
Maggie Hassan 46.0 · Bruce Fenton 40.0pollarch
4/18/2022University of New Hampshire1.00(R+0.9)868LV
1483d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3
  • 1483d old
    Poll was fielded 1483 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias R+0.9pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
Maggie Hassan 44.0 · Chuck Morse 46.0pollarch
4/18/2022University of New Hampshire1.00(R+0.9)868LV
1483d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3
  • 1483d old
    Poll was fielded 1483 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias R+0.9pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
Maggie Hassan 45.0 · Kevin Smith 44.0pollarch
4/8/2022Phillips Academy0.79(R+1.2)533A
4 scored pollsadult sample+2
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • adult sample
    Adult-population sample (no voter screen) — useful for general public opinion but not directly comparable to LV polls for predicting elections.
  • 1493d old
    Poll was fielded 1493 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
Maggie Hassan 45.0 · Don Bolduc 40.0pollarch
4/8/2022Phillips Academy0.79(R+1.2)533A
4 scored pollsadult sample+2
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • adult sample
    Adult-population sample (no voter screen) — useful for general public opinion but not directly comparable to LV polls for predicting elections.
  • 1493d old
    Poll was fielded 1493 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
Maggie Hassan 43.0 · Chuck Morse 40.0pollarch
3/24/2022Saint Anselm College0.81(R+1.7)1265RV
4 scored polls1508d old+3
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 1508d old
    Poll was fielded 1508 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 20 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Maggie Hassan 44.0 · Don Bolduc 39.0pollarch
3/24/2022Saint Anselm College0.81(R+1.7)1265RV
4 scored polls1508d old+3
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 1508d old
    Poll was fielded 1508 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 20 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Maggie Hassan 43.0 · Chuck Morse 36.0pollarch
3/24/2022Saint Anselm College0.81(R+1.7)1265RV
4 scored polls1508d old+3
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 1508d old
    Poll was fielded 1508 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 20 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Maggie Hassan 44.0 · Kevin Smith 34.0pollarch
1/12/2022Saint Anselm College0.81(R+1.7)1215RV
4 scored polls1579d old+3
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 1579d old
    Poll was fielded 1579 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 20 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Maggie Hassan 43.0 · Don Bolduc 36.0pollarch
1/12/2022Saint Anselm College0.81(R+1.7)1215RV
flagged on verification4 scored polls+3
  • flagged on verification
    Automated verification flagged this poll: results sum to 68.0% (expected ~100; n=2 cands, floor=70). Either the scrape misread the source table or the source itself looks unusual. Cross-check the citation URL before relying on this row.
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 1579d old
    Poll was fielded 1579 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 20 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Maggie Hassan 41.0 · Chuck Morse 27.0pollarch
1/12/2022Saint Anselm College0.81(R+1.7)1215RV
flagged on verification4 scored polls+3
  • flagged on verification
    Automated verification flagged this poll: results sum to 66.0% (expected ~100; n=2 cands, floor=70). Either the scrape misread the source table or the source itself looks unusual. Cross-check the citation URL before relying on this row.
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 1579d old
    Poll was fielded 1579 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 20 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Maggie Hassan 42.0 · Kevin Smith 24.0pollarch
12/12/2021The Trafalgar Group0.89R(R+3.4)1041LV
historical bias R+3.4pt1610d old+2
  • historical bias R+3.4pt
    Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 1610d old
    Poll was fielded 1610 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Maggie Hassan 46.0 · Don Bolduc 40.0pollarch
12/12/2021The Trafalgar Group0.89R(R+3.4)1041LV
historical bias R+3.4pt1610d old+2
  • historical bias R+3.4pt
    Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 1610d old
    Poll was fielded 1610 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Maggie Hassan 46.0 · Chuck Morse 38.0pollarch
11/18/2021The Tarrance Group3.77(D+1.1)500LV
3 scored polls1634d old+4
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 1634d old
    Poll was fielded 1634 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 5 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • weight 3.77
    Aggregation weight is 3.77 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
Maggie Hassan 47.0 · Corky Messner 45.0pollarch
10/22/2021Saint Anselm College0.81(R+1.7)1323RV
4 scored polls1661d old+3
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 1661d old
    Poll was fielded 1661 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 20 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Maggie Hassan 41.0 · Chris Sununu 46.0pollarch
10/18/2021University of New Hampshire1.00(R+0.9)979LV
1665d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3
  • 1665d old
    Poll was fielded 1665 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias R+0.9pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
Maggie Hassan 47.0 · Don Bolduc 42.0pollarch
10/18/2021University of New Hampshire1.00(R+0.9)979LV
1665d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3
  • 1665d old
    Poll was fielded 1665 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias R+0.9pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
Maggie Hassan 44.0 · Kelly Ayotte 43.0pollarch
10/18/2021University of New Hampshire1.00(R+0.9)979LV
1665d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3
  • 1665d old
    Poll was fielded 1665 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias R+0.9pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
Maggie Hassan 42.0 · Chris Sununu 45.0pollarch
8/26/2021Saint Anselm College0.81(R+1.7)1855RV
4 scored polls1718d old+4
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 1718d old
    Poll was fielded 1718 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • n=1,855
    Sample size of 1,855 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 20 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Maggie Hassan 41.0 · Chris Sununu 49.0pollarch
7/19/2021University of New Hampshire1.00(R+0.9)1540LV
1756d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+4
  • 1756d old
    Poll was fielded 1756 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias R+0.9pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
  • n=1,540
    Sample size of 1,540 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Maggie Hassan 51.0 · Don Bolduc 41.0pollarch
7/19/2021University of New Hampshire1.00(R+0.9)1540LV
1756d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+4
  • 1756d old
    Poll was fielded 1756 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias R+0.9pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
  • n=1,540
    Sample size of 1,540 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Maggie Hassan 49.0 · Kelly Ayotte 45.0pollarch
7/19/2021University of New Hampshire1.00(R+0.9)1540LV
1756d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+4
  • 1756d old
    Poll was fielded 1756 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias R+0.9pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
  • n=1,540
    Sample size of 1,540 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Maggie Hassan 48.0 · Chris Sununu 49.0pollarch
3/6/2021Saint Anselm College0.81(R+1.7)871RV
4 scored polls1891d old+3
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 1891d old
    Poll was fielded 1891 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 20 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Maggie Hassan 41.0 · Chris Sununu 47.0pollarch
2/22/2021University of New Hampshire1.00(R+0.9)1676LV
1903d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+4
  • 1903d old
    Poll was fielded 1903 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias R+0.9pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
  • n=1,676
    Sample size of 1,676 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Maggie Hassan 52.0 · Don Bolduc 39.0pollarch
2/22/2021University of New Hampshire1.00(R+0.9)1676LV
1903d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+4
  • 1903d old
    Poll was fielded 1903 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias R+0.9pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
  • n=1,676
    Sample size of 1,676 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Maggie Hassan 48.0 · Kelly Ayotte 43.0pollarch
2/22/2021University of New Hampshire1.00(R+0.9)1676LV
1903d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+4
  • 1903d old
    Poll was fielded 1903 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias R+0.9pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
  • n=1,676
    Sample size of 1,676 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Maggie Hassan 53.0 · Corey Lewandowski 34.0pollarch
2/22/2021University of New Hampshire1.00(R+0.9)1676LV
1903d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+4
  • 1903d old
    Poll was fielded 1903 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias R+0.9pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
  • n=1,676
    Sample size of 1,676 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Maggie Hassan 46.0 · Chris Sununu 48.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 20 total
Maggie Hassan (D)
20 endorsements · source
Elected officials (1)
  • Kamala Harris — 49th vice president of the United States (2021–2025) [ 6 ]
Organizations / unions (8)
  • American Israel Public Affairs Committee — [ 7 ]
  • Council for a Livable World — [ 9 ]
  • Feminist Majority PAC — [ 12 ]
  • Humane Society of the United States — Legislative Fund [ 15 ]
  • League of Conservation Voters — [ 17 ]
  • National Women's Political Caucus — [ 20 ]
  • Natural Resources Defense Council — [ 21 ]
  • Population Connection Action Fund — [ 23 ]
Other (11)
  • Brady Campaign — [ 8 ]
  • EMILY's List — [ 10 ]
  • End Citizens United — [ 11 ]
  • Giffords — [ 13 ]
  • Human Rights Campaign — [ 14 ]
  • Jewish Dems — [ 16 ]
  • Let America Vote — [ 18 ]
  • NARAL Pro-Choice America — [ 19 ]
  • Planned Parenthood — [ 22 ]
  • Pro-Israel America — [ 24 ]
  • Sierra Club — [ 25 ]

Money in this race

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-28
Total IE spending
$85.1M
For candidates
$22.8M
Against candidates
$62.3M
Latest filing: 12/28/2022
Source: FEC Schedule E
$2.5M for · $34.2M against
Cash on hand
$54K
Total raised (cycle)
$4.2M
Total spent
$4.2M
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
$9.8M for · $18.2M against
Cash on hand
$124K
Total raised (cycle)
$37.0M
Total spent
$39.2M
Debts
$357K
Source: FEC
$9.4M for · $9.6M against
Cash on hand
$110K
Total raised (cycle)
$1.8M
Total spent
$1.7M
Debts
$343K
Source: FEC
$1.1M for · $349K against
Cash on hand
$15K
Total raised (cycle)
$874K
Total spent
$859K
Debts
$9K
Source: FEC
$0 for · $3K against
Cash on hand
$0
Total raised (cycle)
$226K
Total spent
$285K
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
$0 for · $302 against
Cash on hand
$0
Total raised (cycle)
$328
Total spent
$79K
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
Bruce Fenton (?)
$0 for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$84K
Total raised (cycle)
$1.8M
Total spent
$1.8M
Debts
$1.8M
Source: FEC

Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

6 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Lean D Aug 18 +3.5
DDHQ Lean D Oct 24 +3.5
The Economist Lean D Nov 1 +3.5
538 Lean D Nov 1 +3.5
Inside Elections Tilt D Jul 1 +1.3
Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean D Aug 31 +3.5

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 43 months ago (11/6/2022) last market quote rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (5 changes)
  • 5/3/2026 Tossup via pvi held 1279d
  • 11/1/2022 Lean D D+4.8 via polls held 38d
  • 9/24/2022 Likely D D+5.1 via polls held 45d
  • 8/10/2022 Lean D D+4.3 via polls held 30d
  • 7/11/2022 Likely D D+5.9 via polls