NonpartisanIndependent, data-first coverage of US elections — polls, forecasts, and prediction markets, refreshed daily.Updated daily.What's new ↗·Methodology·Send feedback
Races · Senate · 2022 · New Hampshire
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
Senate · class III · open seat

Maggie Hassan vs Don Bolduc

← North Dakota SenateNevada Senate →
Likely DD +5.8 forecast· 64 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
83% Hassan (D)
17% Bolduc (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +5.8 · 80% CI R+6.2 → D+17.8
Actual result D+9.2 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tossup · model 83% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+1) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+5.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+6.2 (10th pctile) to D+17.8 (90th pctile), giving D a 83% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +5.8
80% CI: R +6.2 → D +17.8 · win prob 83%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used64
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+9.2
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

2025303540455055HASSAN 49.0BOLDUC 46.3BOLDUC 45.5MORSE 46.6SMITH 45.6FEB '21DEC '21NOV '22
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 64 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Nov 5, 22Phillips Academy1,056 · LVNEUTRALR +1.24 tracked+1.7aligned48 · 45
Nov 5, 22University of New Hampshire+2For · University of New Hampshire2,077 · LVNEUTRALR +0.912 tracked+0.3aligned50 · 48
Nov 4, 22InsiderAdvantage+1700 · LVR-LEANR +2.838 tracked-0.5aligned49 · 48
Nov 4, 22Data for Progress+21,995 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned50 · 47
Nov 4, 22Wick InsightsFor · Wick Insights725 · LVR-LEANR +4.59 tracked-0.6aligned48 · 48
Nov 4, 22InsiderAdvantage700 · unknownR-LEANR +2.838 tracked-0.5aligned49
Nov 4, 22Phillips Academy1,056 · unknownNEUTRALR +1.24 tracked+1.7aligned48
Nov 3, 22Wick725 · unknownNEUTRAL——48
Nov 3, 22University of New Hampshire Survey Center2,077 · unknownNEUTRAL——50
Nov 3, 22Data for Progress+11,995 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned50
Oct 31, 22Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling850 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned49 · 45
Oct 31, 22The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,241 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean46 · 47
Oct 30, 22Trafalgar Group1,241 · unknownR-LEANR +2.16 tracked-4.1r lean46
Oct 30, 22Emerson College850 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned50
Oct 28, 22Saint Anselm College+2For · Saint Anselm College1,541 · LVNEUTRALR +1.74 tracked+1.0aligned47 · 48
Oct 27, 22Saint Anselm College Survey Center1,541 · unknownNEUTRAL——47
Oct 25, 22co/efficient1,098 · LVR-LEANR +5.413 tracked-3.4r lean45 · 45
Oct 24, 22UMass Lowell/YouGovFor · UMass Lowell/YouGov600 · LVD-LEAND +3.46 tracked+3.0d lean51 · 41
Oct 24, 22co/efficient1,098 · unknownR-LEANR +5.413 tracked-3.4r lean45
Oct 22, 22InsiderAdvantage+1600 · LVR-LEANR +2.838 tracked-0.5aligned48 · 47
Oct 22, 22InsiderAdvantage600 · unknownR-LEANR +2.838 tracked-0.5aligned48
Oct 19, 22University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion600 · unknownNEUTRAL——51
Oct 18, 22Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling727 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned48 · 45
Oct 18, 22Fabrizio, Lee & Associates+1600 · LVNEUTRAL—+3.9decoupled49 · 47
Oct 18, 22Data for Progress+11,392 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned50 · 44
Oct 17, 22Fabrizio, Lee & Associates600 · unknownNEUTRAL—+3.9decoupled49
Oct 17, 22Emerson College727 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned50
Oct 15, 22Data for Progress1,392 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned50
Oct 5, 22Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research+1500 · LVD-LEAN—+0.8aligned52 · 45
Oct 3, 22Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research500 · unknownNEUTRAL——52
Sep 29, 22The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,081 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean48 · 45
Sep 29, 22Data for Progress+11,147 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned50 · 43
Sep 27, 22Saint Anselm College+1For · Saint Anselm College901 · RVNEUTRALR +1.74 tracked+1.0aligned49 · 43
Sep 27, 22Trafalgar Group1,081 · unknownR-LEANR +2.16 tracked-4.1r lean48
Sep 26, 22Data for Progress1,147 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned50
Sep 26, 22Saint Anselm College Survey Center901 · unknownNEUTRAL——49
Sep 25, 22Suffolk University+1For · Suffolk University500 · LVNEUTRALD +1.221 tracked+0.8aligned50 · 41
Sep 24, 22Suffolk University500 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.221 tracked+0.8aligned50
Sep 18, 22American Research Group555 · RVNEUTRALD +0.77 tracked+0.2noisy53 · 40
Sep 18, 22University of New Hampshire+1For · University of New Hampshire870 · LVNEUTRALR +0.912 tracked+0.3aligned49 · 41
Sep 16, 22American Research Group555 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.77 tracked+0.2noisy53
Sep 16, 22University of New Hampshire Survey Center870 · unknownNEUTRAL——49
Sep 14, 22Emerson College+2For · The first Emerson College800 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned51 · 40
Sep 13, 22Emerson College800 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned51
Jul 7, 22Data for Progress+1903 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned49 · 45
Jul 7, 22Data for Progress+1903 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned49 · 46
Jul 7, 22Data for Progress+1903 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned49 · 45
Jun 26, 22Change Research+1704 · LVD-LEAND +3.718 tracked+5.7noisy49 · 40
Apr 17, 22University of New Hampshire+1For · University of New Hampshire868 · LVNEUTRALR +0.912 tracked+0.3aligned47 · 46
Apr 17, 22University of New Hampshire+1For · University of New Hampshire868 · LVNEUTRALR +0.912 tracked+0.3aligned44 · 46
Apr 17, 22University of New Hampshire+1For · University of New Hampshire868 · LVNEUTRALR +0.912 tracked+0.3aligned45 · 44
Apr 7, 22Phillips AcademyFor · The Phillips Academy Poll533 · ANEUTRALR +1.24 tracked+1.7aligned45 · 40
Apr 7, 22Phillips AcademyFor · The Phillips Academy Poll533 · ANEUTRALR +1.24 tracked+1.7aligned43 · 40
Mar 23, 22Saint Anselm College+1For · Saint Anselm College1,265 · RVNEUTRALR +1.74 tracked+1.0aligned44 · 39
Mar 23, 22Saint Anselm College+1For · Saint Anselm College1,265 · RVNEUTRALR +1.74 tracked+1.0aligned43 · 36
Mar 23, 22Saint Anselm College+1For · Saint Anselm College1,265 · RVNEUTRALR +1.74 tracked+1.0aligned44 · 34
Jan 11, 22Saint Anselm College+11,215 · RVNEUTRALR +1.74 tracked+1.0aligned43 · 36
Jan 11, 22Saint Anselm College+11,215 · RVNEUTRALR +1.74 tracked+1.0aligned41 · 27
Jan 11, 22Saint Anselm College+11,215 · RVNEUTRALR +1.74 tracked+1.0aligned42 · 24
Dec 11, 21The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,041 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean46 · 40
Dec 11, 21The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,041 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean46 · 38
Oct 17, 21University of New Hampshire+1For · University of New Hampshire979 · LVNEUTRALR +0.912 tracked+0.3aligned47 · 42
Jul 18, 21University of New Hampshire+2For · University of New Hampshire1,540 · LVNEUTRALR +0.912 tracked+0.3aligned51 · 41
Feb 21, 21University of New Hampshire+2For · University of New Hampshire1,676 · LVNEUTRALR +0.912 tracked+0.3aligned52 · 39
· 64 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 20 total

Source · Wikipedia · 4 candidates with no endorsements yet
20Hassan · 100%
DMaggie Hassan20 endorsers
Most notable · Kamala Harris · 49th vice president of the United States (2021–2025)
Other11
Organizations8
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
RDon Bolduc0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
REPDonald C. Bolduc0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RChuck Morse0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RKevin Smith0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-28
Don BolducS0NH00326 ↗
Receipts
$4.2M
Disburse
$4.2M
Cash on hand
$53.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Restaurants & drinking$12.0K
Top contributors
ENTREPRENEUR$15.3K
LOS PRIMOS MEXICAN RESTAURANT$12.0K
SLEEPNET CORPORATION$6.7K
NEW ENGLAND DIE CUTTING INC.$5.8K
ASPECT HOLDINGS$5.8K
Maggie HassanS6NH00091 ↗
Receipts
$37.0M
Disburse
$39.2M
Cash on hand
$124.1K
Debts
$357.1K
Top industries
Securities & investment$113.3K
Education$43.2K
Internet$37.7K
Top contributors
HARVARD UNIVERSITY$43.2K
FIDELITY INVESTMENTS$38.8K
GOOGLE$37.7K
GOLDMAN SACHS$37.4K
APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT$37.1K
Chuck MorseS2NH00249 ↗
Receipts
$1.8M
Disburse
$1.7M
Cash on hand
$109.6K
Debts
$343.0K
Top industries
Electric utilities$17.4K
Crop production$15.7K
Real estate$14.3K
Top contributors
GEMINI ELECTRIC$17.4K
LIFE COPING, INC.$17.4K
SALEM MANUFACTURED HOMES, LLC$17.4K
CANOBIE LAKE PARK$17.4K
CEDAR'S FOODS$17.4K
Kevin SmithS2NH00231 ↗
Receipts
$873.6K
Disburse
$858.8K
Cash on hand
$14.8K
Debts
$9.0K
Top industries
Real estate$11.6K
Top contributors
ENTREPRENEUR$32.0K
STEVEN LEWIS INC.$7.8K
PFMG MANAGEMENT CO, INC.$5.8K
TWO INTERNATIONAL GROUP$5.8K
NEW BALANCE$5.8K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$64.6M
D side
$43.9M · 68%
R side
$20.7M · 32%
Top spender
SMP
For / against split
For Hassan $9.8M
Against Bolduc $34.2M
Against Hassan $18.2M
For Bolduc $2.5M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
SMPD$35.4M55%against Don Bolduc
THE SENTINEL ACTION FUNDR$12.4M19%against Maggie Hassan
WHITE MOUNTAIN PACR$9.2M14%for Chuck Morse
RESTORATION PACR$5.0M8%against Maggie Hassan
PA LAWYER FUNDD$5.0M8%for Maggie Hassan
LCV VICTORY FUNDD$4.0M6%against Don Bolduc
EDF ACTION VOTESD$4.0M6%against Don Bolduc
FAMILY FRIENDLY ACTION PACD$1.8M3%for Maggie Hassan
DSCCD$1.6M3%against Don Bolduc
STAND FOR NH PACR$1.1M2%for Kevin Smith

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean D5
Tilt D1
The Cook Political Report
Lean D
Aug 17
DDHQ
Lean D
Oct 23
The Economist
Lean D
Oct 31
538
Lean D
Oct 31
Inside Elections
Tilt D
Jun 30
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
Aug 30

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified40 / 64deterministic
Polls flagged2needs review
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-28
Endorsements20 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks