Races · Governor · 2022 · New Hampshire

Governor · open seat

Tom Sherman vs Chris Sununu

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Safe RR +23.2 forecast· 26 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Sherman (D)
99% Sununu (R)
Win probability
Tom Sherman1% (D)
Chris Sununu99% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +23.2
80% CIR+35.2 → R+11.2
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +23.2 · 80% CI R+35.2 → R+11.2
Actual result R+15.5 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tossup · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+1) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+23.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+35.2 (10th pctile) to R+11.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +23.2

80% CI: R +35.2 → R +11.2 · win prob 1%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · high

Polls used	26
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+15.5
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Polling average

POLL DOTSCI BAND
20253035404550556065SUNUNU 54.8SHERMAN 39.1MAR '22JUL '22NOV '22
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 26 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag

Date	Pollster · trust signals	n · pop	Lean	Bias · track	vs raters	D · R
Nov 5	Phillips Academy	1,056 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +1.24 tracked	+1.7aligned	36 · 58
Nov 5	University of New Hampshire+2For · University of New Hampshire	2,077 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.912 tracked	+0.3aligned	43 · 55
Nov 4	InsiderAdvantage+1	700 · LV	R-LEAN	R +2.838 tracked	-0.5aligned	40 · 56
Nov 4	Data for Progress+2	1,995 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.151 tracked	+0.8aligned	40 · 58
Nov 4	Wick InsightsFor · Wick Insights	725 · LV	R-LEAN	R +4.59 tracked	-0.6aligned	43 · 53
Oct 31	Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling	850 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	36 · 57
Oct 28	Saint Anselm College+2For · Saint Anselm College	1,541 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +1.74 tracked	+1.0aligned	37 · 55
Oct 25	co/efficient	1,098 · LV	R-LEAN	R +5.413 tracked	-3.4r lean	34 · 52
Oct 24	UMass Lowell/YouGovFor · UMass Lowell/YouGov	600 · LV	D-LEAN	D +3.46 tracked	+3.0d lean	35 · 51
Oct 22	InsiderAdvantage+1	600 · LV	R-LEAN	R +2.838 tracked	-0.5aligned	37 · 54
Oct 18	Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling	727 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	40 · 52
Oct 18	Fabrizio, Lee & Associates+1	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+3.9decoupled	40 · 57
Oct 18	Data for Progress+1	1,392 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.151 tracked	+0.8aligned	40 · 53
Oct 5	Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research+1	500 · LV	D-LEAN	—	+0.8aligned	41 · 55
Sep 29	Data for Progress+1	1,147 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.151 tracked	+0.8aligned	39 · 52
Sep 27	Saint Anselm College+1For · Saint Anselm College	901 · RV	NEUTRAL	R +1.74 tracked	+1.0aligned	34 · 50
Sep 25	Suffolk University+1For · Suffolk University	500 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.221 tracked	+0.8aligned	36 · 53
Sep 18	American Research Group	555 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +0.77 tracked	+0.2noisy	38 · 53
Sep 18	University of New Hampshire+1For · University of New Hampshire	870 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.912 tracked	+0.3aligned	37 · 55
Sep 14	Emerson College+2For · The first Emerson College	800 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	37 · 52
Aug 10	Saint Anselm College+2For · Saint Anselm College	1,898 · RV	NEUTRAL	R +1.74 tracked	+1.0aligned	29 · 48
Jul 5	Public Policy Polling+2For · Yahoo News	601 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	33 · 43
Apr 17	University of New Hampshire+1For · University of New Hampshire	868 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.912 tracked	+0.3aligned	29 · 55
Apr 7	Phillips AcademyFor · The Phillips Academy Poll	533 · A	NEUTRAL	R +1.24 tracked	+1.7aligned	24 · 62
Mar 23	Saint Anselm College+1For · Saint Anselm College	1,265 · RV	NEUTRAL	R +1.74 tracked	+1.0aligned	24 · 51
Jan 11	Saint Anselm College+1	1,215 · RV	NEUTRAL	R +1.74 tracked	+1.0aligned	45

· 26 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 3 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet

2Sherman · 67%
Sununu · 33%1
Endorsements tracked
Tom Sherman2 · 67%
Chris Sununu1 · 33%
Total3
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

DTom Sherman2 endorsers

Most notable · American Federation of Teachers · New Hampshire

Organizations2

RChris Sununu1 endorser

Most notable · NRA Political Victory Fund

Other1

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R5

The Cook Political Report

Safe R

Mar 3

Elections Daily

Safe R

Nov 6

538

Safe R

Aug 25

Inside Elections

Safe R

Sep 22

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Aug 17

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified26 / 26deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filings—no filings yet

Endorsements3 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks