| 11/6/2022 | Phillips Academy | 0.79 | —(R+1.2) | 1056 | — | LV | 🟡4 scored polls🟡1281d old+2- 🟡
4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
1281d old Poll was fielded 1281 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Chris Sununu 58.0 · Tom Sherman 36.0 | pollarch |
| 11/6/2022 | University of New Hampshire | 1.00 | —(R+0.9) | 2077 | — | LV | 🟡1281d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+4- 🟡
1281d old Poll was fielded 1281 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias R+0.9pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt. - 🔵
n=2,077 Sample size of 2,077 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
| Chris Sununu 55.0 · Tom Sherman 43.0 | pollarch |
| 11/5/2022 | InsiderAdvantage | 0.92 | R(R+2.6) | 700 | — | LV | 🟡bias R+2.6pt🟡1282d old+3- 🟡
bias R+2.6pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt. - 🟡
1282d old Poll was fielded 1282 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Chris Sununu 56.0 · Tom Sherman 40.0 | pollarch |
| 11/5/2022 | Data for Progress | 1.00 | —(D+1.0) | 1995 | — | LV | 🟡1282d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+4- 🟡
1282d old Poll was fielded 1282 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
n=1,995 Sample size of 1,995 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+1.0pt Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.
| Chris Sununu 58.0 · Tom Sherman 40.0 | pollarch |
| 11/5/2022 | Wick Insights | 0.74 | R(R+4.0) | 725 | — | LV | 🟡1282d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
1282d old Poll was fielded 1282 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 17 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Chris Sununu 53.0 · Tom Sherman 43.0 | pollarch |
| 11/1/2022 | Emerson College | 1.00 | —(D+0.7) | 850 | — | LV | 🟡1286d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+3- 🟡
1286d old Poll was fielded 1286 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
| Chris Sununu 57.0 · Tom Sherman 36.0 | pollarch |
| 10/29/2022 | Saint Anselm College | 0.81 | —(R+1.7) | 1541 | — | LV | 🟡4 scored polls🟡1289d old+4- 🟡
4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
1289d old Poll was fielded 1289 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
n=1,541 Sample size of 1,541 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 20 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Chris Sununu 55.0 · Tom Sherman 37.0 | pollarch |
| 10/26/2022 | co/efficient | 0.71 | R(R+5.4) | 1098 | — | LV | 🟠historical bias R+5.4pt🟡1292d old+3- 🟠
historical bias R+5.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+5.4pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
1292d old Poll was fielded 1292 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
R+4.4pt vs editors Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.4pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Chris Sununu 52.0 · Tom Sherman 34.0 | pollarch |
| 10/25/2022 | UMass Lowell/YouGov | 0.93 | L(D+3.4) | 600 | — | LV | 🟡1293d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+1- 🟡
1293d old Poll was fielded 1293 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Chris Sununu 51.0 · Tom Sherman 35.0 | pollarch |
| 10/23/2022 | InsiderAdvantage | 0.92 | R(R+2.6) | 600 | — | LV | 🟡bias R+2.6pt🟡1295d old+3- 🟡
bias R+2.6pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt. - 🟡
1295d old Poll was fielded 1295 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Chris Sununu 54.0 · Tom Sherman 37.0 | pollarch |
| 10/19/2022 | Emerson College | 1.00 | —(D+0.7) | 727 | — | LV | 🟡1299d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+3- 🟡
1299d old Poll was fielded 1299 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
| Chris Sununu 52.0 · Tom Sherman 40.0 | pollarch |
| 10/19/2022 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | 1.00 | R | 600 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1299d old+3- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1299d old Poll was fielded 1299 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 14 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Chris Sununu 57.0 · Tom Sherman 40.0 | pollarch |
| 10/19/2022 | Data for Progress | 1.00 | —(D+1.0) | 1392 | — | LV | 🟡1299d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+3- 🟡
1299d old Poll was fielded 1299 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+1.0pt Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.
| Chris Sununu 53.0 · Tom Sherman 40.0 | pollarch |
| 10/6/2022 | Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research | 1.00 | L | 500 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1312d old+3- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1312d old Poll was fielded 1312 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Chris Sununu 55.0 · Tom Sherman 41.0 | pollarch |
| 9/30/2022 | Data for Progress | 1.00 | —(D+1.0) | 1147 | — | LV | 🟡1318d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+3- 🟡
1318d old Poll was fielded 1318 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+1.0pt Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.
| Chris Sununu 52.0 · Tom Sherman 39.0 | pollarch |
| 9/28/2022 | Saint Anselm College | 0.81 | —(R+1.7) | 901 | — | RV | 🟡4 scored polls🟡1320d old+3- 🟡
4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
1320d old Poll was fielded 1320 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 20 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Chris Sununu 50.0 · Tom Sherman 34.0 | pollarch |
| 9/26/2022 | Suffolk University | 1.44 | neutral(D+0.1) | 500 | — | LV | 🟡1322d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+3- 🟡
1322d old Poll was fielded 1322 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Chris Sununu 53.0 · Tom Sherman 36.0 | pollarch |
| 9/19/2022 | American Research Group | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 555 | — | RV | 🟡3 scored polls🟡1329d old+3- 🟡
3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
1329d old Poll was fielded 1329 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 6 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Chris Sununu 53.0 · Tom Sherman 38.0 | pollarch |
| 9/19/2022 | University of New Hampshire | 1.00 | —(R+0.9) | 870 | — | LV | 🟡1329d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+3- 🟡
1329d old Poll was fielded 1329 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias R+0.9pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
| Chris Sununu 55.0 · Tom Sherman 37.0 | pollarch |
| 9/15/2022 | Emerson College | 1.00 | —(D+0.7) | 800 | — | LV | 🟡1333d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+4- 🟡
1333d old Poll was fielded 1333 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
university-sponsored: The first Emerson College Commissioned by The first Emerson College, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
| Chris Sununu 52.0 · Tom Sherman 37.0 | pollarch |
| 8/11/2022 | Saint Anselm College | 0.81 | —(R+1.7) | 1898 | — | RV | 🟡4 scored polls🟡1368d old+4- 🟡
4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
1368d old Poll was fielded 1368 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
n=1,898 Sample size of 1,898 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 20 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Chris Sununu 48.0 · Tom Sherman 29.0 | pollarch |
| 7/6/2022 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 601 | — | LV | 🟡1404d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+3- 🟡
1404d old Poll was fielded 1404 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Chris Sununu 43.0 · Tom Sherman 33.0 | pollarch |
| 4/18/2022 | University of New Hampshire | 1.00 | —(R+0.9) | 868 | — | LV | 🟡1483d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+3- 🟡
1483d old Poll was fielded 1483 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias R+0.9pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
| Chris Sununu 55.0 · Tom Sherman 29.0 | pollarch |
| 4/8/2022 | Phillips Academy | 0.79 | —(R+1.2) | 533 | — | A | 🟡4 scored polls🟡adult sample+2- 🟡
4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
adult sample Adult-population sample (no voter screen) — useful for general public opinion but not directly comparable to LV polls for predicting elections. - 🟡
1493d old Poll was fielded 1493 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
| Chris Sununu 62.0 · Tom Sherman 24.0 | pollarch |
| 3/24/2022 | Saint Anselm College | 0.81 | —(R+1.7) | 1265 | — | RV | 🟡4 scored polls🟡1508d old+3- 🟡
4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
1508d old Poll was fielded 1508 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 20 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Chris Sununu 51.0 · Tom Sherman 24.0 | pollarch |
| 1/12/2022 | Saint Anselm College | 0.81 | —(R+1.7) | 1215 | — | RV | 🟡4 scored polls🟡1579d old+3- 🟡
4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
1579d old Poll was fielded 1579 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 20 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Chris Sununu 45.0 | pollarch |