Races · Governor · 2022 · Nebraska

Governor · open seat

Carol Blood vs Jim Pillen

← Minnesota Governor New Hampshire Governor →

Safe RR +18.3 forecast· 2 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Blood (D)
99% Pillen (R)
Win probability
Carol Blood1% (D)
Jim Pillen99% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +18.3
80% CIR+30.3 → R+6.3
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +18.3 · 80% CI R+30.3 → R+6.3
Actual result Jim Pillen Joe Kelly +23.2 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+13) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+18.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+30.3 (10th pctile) to R+6.3 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +18.3

80% CI: R +30.3 → R +6.3 · win prob 1%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	2
Days to election	passed
Actual result	Jim Pillen Joe Kelly +23.2
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Polling average

POLL DOTSCI BAND
40444852PILLEN 48.0BLOOD 41.0SEP '22SEP '22SEP '22
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 2 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag

Date	Pollster · trust signals	n · pop	Lean	Bias · track	vs raters	D · R
Sep 27	Data Targeting	1,340 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	41 · 48
Sep 26	Data Targeting	1,340 · unknown	R-LEAN	—	—	41 · 48

Endorsements · 25 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet

4Blood · 16%
Pillen · 84%21
Endorsements tracked
Carol Blood4 · 16%
Jim Pillen21 · 84%
Total25
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

RJim Pillen21 endorsers

Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)

Elected officials16

Federal 3State 12Local 1

Other3

Organizations2

DCarol Blood4 endorsers

Most notable · Brad Ashford · former U.S. representative for Nebraska's 2nd congressional district (2015–2017)

Organizations2

Elected officials1

Federal 1State 0Local 0

Other1

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R5

The Cook Political Report

Safe R

Mar 3

Elections Daily

Safe R

Nov 6

538

Safe R

Jun 29

Inside Elections

Safe R

Mar 3

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Jan 25

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified1 / 2deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filings—no filings yet

Endorsements25 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks