Races · Senate · 2020 · Arkansas

Senate · class II · open seat

Arkansas Senate

← Alabama Senate Arizona Senate →

Safe RR +22.0 forecast· 4 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% (D)
99% Cotton (R)
Win probability
Democrat1% (D)
Tom Cotton99% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +22.0
80% CIR+34.0 → R+10.0
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +22.0 · 80% CI R+34.0 → R+10.0
Actual result R+33.1 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+16) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+22.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+34.0 (10th pctile) to R+10.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +22.0

80% CI: R +34.0 → R +10.0 · win prob 1%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	4
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+33.1
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Polling average

POLL DOTSCI BAND
202530354045505560657075COTTON 57.8HARRINGTON 31.8OCT '20OCT '20OCT '20
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 4 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag

Date	Pollster · trust signals	n · pop	Lean	Bias · track	vs raters	D · R
Oct 20	University of Arkansas+1For · University of Arkansas News	591 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +6.33 tracked	—	75
Oct 12	Hendrix College/Talk Business & PoliticsFor · Talk Business & Politics	647 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	63
Oct 8	American Research GroupFor · Harrington campaign	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.77 tracked	+0.2noisy	49
Oct 7	American Research Group	600 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +0.77 tracked	+0.2noisy	49

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

RTom Cotton0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

LRicky Dale Harrington Jr.0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2021-01-02

Tom CottonS4AR00103 ↗

Receipts

$9.1M

Disburse

$4.8M

Cash on hand

$6.4M

Debts

$74.0K

Top industries

Securities & investment$18.2K

Top contributors

INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS$54.2K

BLACKSTONE$18.2K

CACTUS WELLHEAD$16.8K

M.C.N.A. DENTRAL$13.2K

SOUTHERN ALUMINUM$11.3K

Ricky Dale Harrington Jr.S0AR00226 ↗

Receipts

$79.6K

Disburse

$64.0K

Cash on hand

$15.5K

Debts

Top industries

Education$1.0K

Top contributors

US$3.0K

RMS$2.8K

BROADSIGN INTERNATIONAL$2.8K

SELFEMPLOYED$1.0K

INSTITUTE FOR JUSTICE$1.0K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$12.9K

D side

$10.6K · 82%

R side

$2.3K · 18%

Top spender

THE LINCOLN PROJECT

For / against split

Against Cotton $10.6K

For Cotton $2.3K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
THE LINCOLN PROJECT	D	$10.1K	78%	against Tom Cotton
NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND	R	$2.0K	15%	for Tom Cotton
INDIVISIBLE PROJECT INC.	D	$489.58	4%	against Tom Cotton
SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND	R	$334.5	3%	for Tom Cotton
LIBERTARIAN PARTY OF ARKANSAS	L	$325.73	3%	for Ricky Dale Harrington Jr.

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R5

The Cook Political Report

Safe R

Oct 28

DDHQ

Safe R

Nov 2

538

Safe R

Nov 1

Inside Elections

Safe R

Oct 27

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified3 / 4deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2021-01-02

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks