Races · Senate · 2020 · AR

Senate · class II · open seat

Arkansas Senate

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Safe R — · 3 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2027d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 3 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe R

safe-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Show poll dots95% CI bandOverlay all methods|Toggle:

All polls · 3 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:3 of 3 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
10/21/2020	University of Arkansas	0.63	—(D+6.3)	591	—	LV	3 scored polls2027d old+3 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 2027d old Poll was fielded 2027 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. university-sponsored: University of Arkansas News Commissioned by University of Arkansas News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Tom Cotton 75.0 · Ricky Dale Harrington Jr. 20.0	poll arch
10/13/2020	Hendrix College/Talk Business & Politics	1.00	—	647	—	LV	no scored polls2035d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2035d old Poll was fielded 2035 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Tom Cotton 63.0 · Ricky Dale Harrington Jr. 28.0	poll arch
10/9/2020	American Research Group	1.00	—(D+1.1)	600	—	LV	3 scored polls2039d old+3 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 2039d old Poll was fielded 2039 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 6 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Tom Cotton 49.0 · Ricky Dale Harrington Jr. 38.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Money in this race

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2021-01-02

Total IE spending

$13K

For candidates

$3K

Against candidates

$11K

Latest filing: 1/2/2021
Source: FEC Schedule E

Tom Cotton (R)

$2K for · $11K against

Cash on hand

$6.4M

Total raised (cycle)

$9.1M

Total spent

$4.8M

Debts

$74K

Source: FEC

$10K against THE LINCOLN PROJECT Super PAC
$2K for NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND PAC
$490 against INDIVISIBLE PROJECT INC. PAC
$335 for SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND PAC

Ricky Dale Harrington Jr. (L)

$326 for · $0 against

Cash on hand

$16K

Total raised (cycle)

$80K

Total spent

$64K

Debts

Source: FEC

$326 for LIBERTARIAN PARTY OF ARKANSAS PAC

Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

5 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Safe R	Oct 29	—	-18.0	—
DDHQ	Safe R	Nov 3	—	-18.0	—
538	Safe R	Nov 2	—	-18.0	—
Inside Elections	Safe R	Oct 28	—	-18.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe R	Nov 2	—	-18.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 68 months ago (10/21/2020) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

7/6/2020 Safe R via pvi