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Pollster · 54 of 1769

Glengariff Group

GRADE CWEIGHT TIER T4D-LEAN</> Embed
Polls scored
5
Mean error
5.0 pt
Signed bias
D+4.60
Aggregation weight
0.81

Pollster vs prediction market

From 92 race-polls · 28 matched markets
Pre-poll P(D) (avg)
70.5%
Market price the day before each poll dropped
Post-poll market shift
+0.1 pt
Average move within 24h of release (D+ = market moved toward D)
Market alignment
+5.1 pt
Net direction markets moved toward Glengariff Group's read
Composite quality score
0–100 · weighted of 5 measured components
58
of 100 · tier · moderate

Moderate quality. Worth checking individual signals before relying on this pollster's headline.

Aggregator weight40
Verification rate50
Sample size median59
Citation rate83
Outlier rate (inv.)not yet measured
Rater alignment82
Pollster vs editorial consensus
aligned

Across 28 graded races, Glengariff Group's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of +1.5pp. That's well-aligned with the consensus — useful as a sanity check, less useful as a contrarian signal.

Mean delta
+1.5pp
Median delta
-0.8pp
Std-dev
5.3pp
N graded
28
Recent activity
Total all time
92
Last 30d
0
Last 90d
17
Last 180d
24

Last poll 5/11/2026 (56d ago)· status active

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