Pollster · 388 of 1769
NYT Upshot/Siena College
Polls scored
12
Mean error
5.7 pt
Signed bias
R+0.80
Aggregation weight
0.87
Composite quality score
0–100 · weighted of 5 measured components59
of 100 · tier · moderate
Moderate quality. Worth checking individual signals before relying on this pollster's headline.
Pollster vs editorial consensus
r-leanAcross 9 graded races, NYT Upshot/Siena College's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of -2.4pp. That's a measurable R-lean vs the consensus.
Mean delta
-2.4pp
Median delta
-3.0pp
Std-dev
4.3pp
N graded
9
Recent activity
Total all time
12
Last 30d
0
Last 90d
0
Last 180d
0
Per-cycle debrief appearances
| Cycle | Rank | Polls | MAE | Signed bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | #14 / 25 | 3 | 4.62 pt | D+1.72 pp |
Recent polls
- 6/17/2020North Carolina · Senate · 2020Thom Tillis 39.0 · Cal Cunningham 42.0
- 6/16/2020Michigan · Senate · 2020Gary Peters 41.0 · John James 31.0
- 6/15/2020Arizona · Senate (special) · 2020Martha McSally 38.0 · Mark Kelly 47.0
- 10/26/2018Florida · Governor · 2018Ron DeSantis 43.0 · Andrew Gillum 48.0
- 10/26/2018Florida · Senate · 2018Bill Nelson 48.0 · Rick Scott 44.0
- 10/18/2018Arizona · Senate · 2018Martha McSally 48.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 46.0 · Angela Green 1.0
- 10/10/2018Tennessee · Governor · 2018Bill Lee 59.0 · Karl Dean 33.0
- 10/10/2018Texas · Governor · 2018Greg Abbott 57.0 · Lupe Valdez 35.0
- 10/10/2018Tennessee · Senate · 2018Marsha Blackburn 54.0 · Phil Bredesen 40.0
- 10/10/2018Texas · Senate · 2018Ted Cruz 51.0 · Beto O'Rourke 43.0 · Neal Dikeman 1.0