Cal Cunningham vs Thom Tillis

Poll was fielded 2016 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+7.7pt — a measurable house effect.

Aggregation weight is 0.49 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.

Poll was fielded 2016 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Poll was fielded 2016 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Poll was fielded 2016 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2017 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Poll was fielded 2017 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.

Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.

Poll was fielded 2017 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Sample size of 1,982 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.

Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.4pt — a measurable house effect.

Poll was fielded 2018 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Commissioned by CNN, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.

Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.

Poll was fielded 2019 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Poll was fielded 2020 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2020 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2020 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt.

Poll was fielded 2021 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Poll was fielded 2021 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2021 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Poll was fielded 2021 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Poll was fielded 2021 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Poll was fielded 2022 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+7.7pt — a measurable house effect.

Aggregation weight is 0.49 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.

Sample size of 363 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.1pt — wider than typical.

Poll was fielded 2022 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Poll was fielded 2022 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.

Poll was fielded 2022 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2023 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Commissioned by Civitas Institute, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2025 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Methodology not disclosed publicly; declined to participate in AAPOR Transparency Initiative. Included for transparency rather than weight-zeroing — many forecasters still include their polls — but the methodology opacity is worth surfacing. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trafalgar_Group

Poll was fielded 2026 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 7 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.1pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.

Poll was fielded 2027 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.

Poll was fielded 2028 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Poll was fielded 2028 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.

Poll was fielded 2028 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Sample size of 1,904 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.

Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2029 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Poll was fielded 2029 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Poll was fielded 2030 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.

Poll was fielded 2030 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2031 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Commissioned by ABC News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.

Poll was fielded 2034 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.

Poll was fielded 2034 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Poll was fielded 2035 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Poll was fielded 2035 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.

Poll was fielded 2037 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.

Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Poll was fielded 2037 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2037 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Poll was fielded 2037 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.

Poll was fielded 2037 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Sample size of 1,993 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.

Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Poll was fielded 2042 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Poll was fielded 2043 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.

Poll was fielded 2043 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.

Sample size of 396 respondents implies a margin of error around ±4.9pt — wider than typical.

Poll was fielded 2044 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Poll was fielded 2044 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2050 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2051 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2053 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Commissioned by CBS News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.

Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.

Poll was fielded 2053 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2056 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.

Poll was fielded 2058 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2058 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Commissioned by Civitas Institute, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.

Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.

Poll was fielded 2058 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Sample size of 1,604 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.

Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Poll was fielded 2060 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.

Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.

Poll was fielded 2061 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Sample size of 1,664 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.

Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Poll was fielded 2062 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Poll was fielded 2062 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Poll was fielded 2063 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Poll was fielded 2064 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt.

Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Poll was fielded 2065 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.4pt — a measurable house effect.

Poll was fielded 2065 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Commissioned by CNN, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2065 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.

Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect.

Poll was fielded 2067 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2070 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2070 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Sample size of 1,600 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.

Poll was fielded 2072 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Poll was fielded 2075 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.

Poll was fielded 2077 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.

Commissioned by Monmouth University Polling Institute, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.

Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt.

Poll was fielded 2077 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Poll was fielded 2079 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Poll was fielded 2086 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.

Poll was fielded 2086 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Sample size of 1,541 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.

Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2091 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Poll was fielded 2096 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.

Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Poll was fielded 2099 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2099 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Commissioned by Civitas Institute, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.

Poll was fielded 2100 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Poll was fielded 2107 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.

Poll was fielded 2109 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2109 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2109 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.

Sample size of 284 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.8pt — wider than typical.

Poll was fielded 2114 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.

Poll was fielded 2114 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Sample size of 1,504 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.

Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2116 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Poll was fielded 2117 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.

Poll was fielded 2117 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2118 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2124 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2125 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Poll was fielded 2128 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Poll was fielded 2132 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.

Poll was fielded 2142 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Poll was fielded 2145 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.

Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Poll was fielded 2147 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.

Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt.

Poll was fielded 2147 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.

Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.

Poll was fielded 2152 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.

Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt.

Poll was fielded 2153 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.

Poll was fielded 2153 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Poll was fielded 2167 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2173 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2188 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.

Poll was fielded 2192 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.

Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Poll was fielded 2197 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2203 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.

Poll was fielded 2205 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Poll was fielded 2216 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2224 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Poll was fielded 2263 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.

Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect.

Poll was fielded 2264 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.

Sample size of 2,120 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.1pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.

Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Poll was fielded 2265 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.

Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2307 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2309 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Commissioned by Politico, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.

Automated verification flagged this poll: results sum to 66.0% (expected ~100; n=2 cands, floor=70). Either the scrape misread the source table or the source itself looks unusual. Cross-check the citation URL before relying on this row.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2407 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.

Automated verification flagged this poll: results sum to 67.0% (expected ~100; n=2 cands, floor=70). Either the scrape misread the source table or the source itself looks unusual. Cross-check the citation URL before relying on this row.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2407 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.

Poll was fielded 2427 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Commissioned by The Hill, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.

Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2475 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2475 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Poll was fielded 2518 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.

Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.

Poll was fielded 2533 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.

Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.

Poll was fielded 3235 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Commissioned by Politico, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.

Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.