Races · Senate · 2020 · North Carolina Senate · class II · open seat
Cal Cunningham vs Thom Tillis Tossup D +0.5 forecast · 121 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probability poliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
53% Cunningham (D)
47% Tillis (R)
Win probability
Cal Cunningham 53% (D)
Thom Tillis 47% (R)
Model poliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15 R+5 TIED D+5 D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimate D +0.5
80% CI R+11.5 → D+12.5
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +0.5 · 80% CI R+11.5 → D+12.5
Actual result R+1.8 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
insufficient data
Momentum
Now —
Window 76 points
How fast the polling margin is shifting, in points per week, and toward which party. The sparkline traces the margin over time.
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Tipping-point P
Now 0.0%
Probability this seat is the pivotal one — the race that decides which party controls the chamber.
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
Market · D-side
Now —
Volume-weighted Democratic win price across prediction-market platforms (in cents = implied %). The sparkline traces it over time.
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
News articles · 30d
Now —
Number of articles about this race indexed in the last 30 days, with the weekly trend.
Where this race stands
Tilt R · model 53% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+3) suggests Tilt R .
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts tied with an 80% CI ranging from R+11.5 (10th pctile) to D+12.5 (90th pctile), giving D a 53% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · tilt-r
Cal Cunningham
James Calvin Cunningham III (born August 6, 1973) is an American lawyer, politician, and retired military officer. A member of the Democrati…
53%win Thomas Edward Willis is an American politician. He is a member of the West Virginia Senate for the 15th district .
47%win Shannon Bray
The 2022 United States Senate election in North Carolina was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to repr…
3%avg Thomas Roland Tillis
Challenger
47%win Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +0.5
80% CI: R +11.5 → D +12.5 · win prob 53%
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used 121 Days to election passed Actual result R+1.8 Residual σ 6.00pt Generated 7/1/2026
All polls · 121 results Date Pollster · trust signals n · pop Lean Bias · track vs raters D · R Oct 31, 20 Change Research/CNBC 473 · LV D-LEAN D +5.1 6 tracked +1.1 aligned 50 · 46 Oct 31, 20 Swayable +1 619 · LV D-LEAN D +7.8 17 tracked +2.5 d lean 53 · 47 Oct 31, 20 Ipsos/Reuters +1 707 · LV D-LEAN D +4.0 10 tracked +0.7 aligned 48 · 46 Oct 31, 20 Data for Progress +1 908 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.1 51 tracked +0.8 aligned 51 · 46 Oct 30, 20 Frederick Polls 676 · LV D-LEAN — — 50 · 46 Oct 30, 20 Emerson College +1 855 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.7 118 tracked +0.8 aligned 50 · 47 Oct 30, 20 Morning Consult +2 1,982 · LV D-LEAN D +5.2 30 tracked +1.8 aligned 47 · 43 Oct 29, 20 CNN/SSRS +1 901 · LV D-LEAN D +4.4 17 tracked +3.0 d lean 47 · 44 Oct 28, 20 Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports 800 · LV NEUTRAL D +2.2 4 tracked — 47 · 44 Oct 27, 20 East Carolina University 1,103 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.8 8 tracked -0.5 aligned 48 · 46 Oct 27, 20 Cardinal Point Analytics 750 · LV R-LEAN — — 41 · 46 Oct 27, 20 Marist College/NBC 800 · LV NEUTRAL — — 53 · 43 Oct 26, 20 Gravis Marketing +1 614 · LV D-LEAN D +2.9 33 tracked +0.1 aligned 46 · 44 Oct 26, 20 Public Policy Polling 937 · unknown NEUTRAL D +0.9 104 tracked +2.4 noisy 47 · 44 Oct 26, 20 Meeting Street Insights/Carolina Partnership for Reform 600 · LV R-LEAN — — 47 · 43 Oct 26, 20 Siena College/NYT Upshot 1,034 · LV D-LEAN D +5.0 9 tracked 0.0 aligned 46 · 43 Oct 26, 20 Ipsos/Reuters +1 647 · LV D-LEAN D +4.0 10 tracked +0.7 aligned 48 · 47 Oct 25, 20 RMG Research 800 · LV D-LEAN D +6.6 8 tracked +2.6 d lean 49 · 42 Oct 25, 20 Swayable +2 363 · LV D-LEAN D +7.8 17 tracked +2.5 d lean 50 · 50 Oct 25, 20 SurveyUSA +1 627 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.1 94 tracked -0.5 aligned 48 · 45 Oct 25, 20 YouGov/UMass Lowell 911 · LV NEUTRAL D +4.6 3 tracked — 49 · 45 Oct 24, 20 Harper Polling/Civitas +1 504 · LV R-LEAN — — 46 · 43 Oct 22, 20 YouGov/CBS 1,022 · LV NEUTRAL — — 49 · 43 Oct 21, 20 Trafalgar Group +1 1,098 · LV R-LEAN R +2.1 6 tracked -4.1 r lean 47 · 49 Oct 20, 20 Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports 800 · LV NEUTRAL D +2.2 4 tracked — 45 · 45 Oct 19, 20 Citizen Data 1,000 · LV NEUTRAL D +6.6 3 tracked — 48 · 42 Oct 19, 20 Ipsos/Reuters +1 660 · LV D-LEAN D +4.0 10 tracked +0.7 aligned 47 · 47 Oct 19, 20 Morning Consult +2 1,904 · LV D-LEAN D +5.2 30 tracked +1.8 aligned 48 · 42 Oct 18, 20 Meredith College 732 · LV NEUTRAL — — 43 · 38 Oct 18, 20 Change Research/CNBC 521 · LV D-LEAN D +5.1 6 tracked +1.1 aligned 51 · 45 Oct 17, 20 Data for Progress +1 929 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.1 51 tracked +0.8 aligned 46 · 42 Oct 17, 20 East Carolina University 1,155 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.8 8 tracked -0.5 aligned 48 · 47 Oct 16, 20 ABC/Washington Post +1 646 · LV NEUTRAL — — 49 · 47 Oct 13, 20 Emerson College +1 721 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.7 118 tracked +0.8 aligned 45 · 44 Oct 13, 20 Civiqs/Daily Kos 1,211 · LV D-LEAN D +4.0 5 tracked -0.9 aligned 51 · 45 Oct 12, 20 Siena College/NYT Upshot 627 · LV D-LEAN D +5.0 9 tracked 0.0 aligned 41 · 37 Oct 12, 20 Ipsos/Reuters +1 660 · LV D-LEAN D +4.0 10 tracked +0.7 aligned 46 · 42 Oct 10, 20 Monmouth University +1 500 · RV D-LEAN D +4.5 20 tracked +0.7 aligned 48 · 44 Oct 10, 20 SurveyUSA +1 669 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.1 94 tracked -0.5 aligned 49 · 39 Oct 10, 20 Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. 500 · LV R-LEAN — — 46 · 44 Oct 10, 20 RMG Research 800 · LV D-LEAN D +6.6 8 tracked +2.6 d lean 46 · 36 Oct 10, 20 Morning Consult +2 1,993 · LV D-LEAN D +5.2 30 tracked +1.8 aligned 47 · 41 Oct 5, 20 Ipsos/Reuters +1 693 · LV D-LEAN D +4.0 10 tracked +0.7 aligned 47 · 42 Oct 4, 20 Public Policy Polling 911 · unknown NEUTRAL D +0.9 104 tracked +2.4 noisy 48 · 42 Oct 4, 20 Data for Progress +1 1,285 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.1 51 tracked +0.8 aligned 50 · 39 Oct 3, 20 Change Research/CNBC 396 · LV D-LEAN D +5.1 6 tracked +1.1 aligned 50 · 46 Oct 3, 20 East Carolina University 1,232 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.8 8 tracked -0.5 aligned 46 · 47 Sep 27, 20 A.L.G. Research 822 · unknown NEUTRAL — — 53 · 41 Sep 26, 20 Hart Research Associates 400 · LV NEUTRAL — — 54 · 41 Sep 24, 20 YouGov/CBS +1 1,213 · LV NEUTRAL — — 48 · 38 Sep 24, 20 YouGov/UMass Lowell 921 · LV NEUTRAL D +4.6 3 tracked — 49 · 43 Sep 21, 20 Meredith College 705 · RV NEUTRAL — — 43 · 42 Sep 19, 20 Change Research/CNBC 579 · LV D-LEAN D +5.1 6 tracked +1.1 aligned 48 · 43 Sep 19, 20 Harper Polling/Civitas +1 612 · LV R-LEAN — — 44 · 38 Sep 19, 20 Morning Consult +2 1,604 · LV D-LEAN D +5.2 30 tracked +1.8 aligned 47 · 38 Sep 17, 20 Emerson College +1 717 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.7 118 tracked +0.8 aligned 49 · 43 Sep 16, 20 Morning Consult +2 1,664 · LV D-LEAN D +5.2 30 tracked +1.8 aligned 46 · 39 Sep 15, 20 Ipsos/Reuters +1 586 · LV D-LEAN D +4.0 10 tracked +0.7 aligned 48 · 44 Sep 15, 20 Siena College/NYT Upshot 653 · LV D-LEAN D +5.0 9 tracked 0.0 aligned 42 · 37 Sep 14, 20 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,092 · LV D-LEAN D +5.3 5 tracked -0.1 aligned 49 · 38 Sep 14, 20 Morning Consult +1 1,604 · unknown D-LEAN D +5.2 30 tracked +1.8 aligned 47 Sep 13, 20 Suffolk University +1 500 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.2 21 tracked +0.8 aligned 42 · 38 Sep 12, 20 SurveyUSA +1 596 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.1 94 tracked -0.5 aligned 47 · 40 Sep 12, 20 CNN/SSRS +1 787 · LV D-LEAN D +4.4 17 tracked +3.0 d lean 47 · 46 Sep 12, 20 Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report 1,116 · RV NEUTRAL — — 41 · 37 Sep 10, 20 The Trafalgar Group 1,046 · LV R-LEAN R +3.5 53 tracked -2.6 r lean 46 · 45 Sep 7, 20 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 1,000 · LV NEUTRAL — — 47 · 44 Sep 7, 20 Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group +1 1,600 · LV NEUTRAL — — 42 · 39 Sep 5, 20 Change Research/CNBC 442 · LV D-LEAN D +5.1 6 tracked +1.1 aligned 51 · 44 Sep 2, 20 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 951 · LV D-LEAN D +5.3 5 tracked -0.1 aligned 47 · 37 Aug 31, 20 Monmouth University +2 401 · RV D-LEAN D +4.5 20 tracked +0.7 aligned 46 · 45 Aug 31, 20 Fox News 722 · LV D-LEAN D +2.1 21 tracked +2.7 d lean 48 · 42 Aug 29, 20 East Carolina University 1,101 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.8 8 tracked -0.5 aligned 44 · 44 Aug 22, 20 Change Research/CNBC 560 · LV D-LEAN D +5.1 6 tracked +1.1 aligned 52 · 42 Aug 22, 20 Morning Consult +2 1,541 · LV D-LEAN D +5.2 30 tracked +1.8 aligned 47 · 39 Aug 17, 20 Redfield and Wilton Strategies 856 · LV NEUTRAL — — 47 · 38 Aug 12, 20 East Carolina University 1,255 · RV NEUTRAL D +1.8 8 tracked -0.5 aligned 44 · 40 Aug 9, 20 Emerson College +1 673 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.7 118 tracked +0.8 aligned 44 · 42 Aug 9, 20 Harper Polling/Civitas +1 600 · LV R-LEAN — — 41 · 38 Aug 8, 20 Change Research/CNBC 491 · LV D-LEAN D +5.1 6 tracked +1.1 aligned 48 · 43 Aug 1, 20 Data for Progress +1 1,170 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.1 51 tracked +0.8 aligned 49 · 41 Jul 30, 20 Public Policy Polling 934 · unknown NEUTRAL D +0.9 104 tracked +2.4 noisy 48 · 44 Jul 30, 20 YouGov/CBS 1,121 · LV NEUTRAL — — 48 · 39 Jul 30, 20 HIT Strategies 400 · RV D-LEAN — — 48 · 32 Jul 25, 20 Change Research/CNBC 284 · LV D-LEAN D +5.1 6 tracked +1.1 aligned 52 · 40 Jul 25, 20 Morning Consult +2 1,504 · LV D-LEAN D +5.2 30 tracked +1.8 aligned 46 · 37 Jul 23, 20 Cardinal Point Analytics 735 · LV R-LEAN — — 43 · 43 Jul 22, 20 Public Policy Polling 939 · unknown NEUTRAL D +0.9 104 tracked +2.4 noisy 48 · 40 Jul 22, 20 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 919 · LV D-LEAN D +5.3 5 tracked -0.1 aligned 47 · 36 Jul 21, 20 Marist College/NBC News 882 · RV NEUTRAL — — 50 · 41 Jul 15, 20 Spry Strategies 750 · LV NEUTRAL — — 40 · 40 Jul 14, 20 Cardinal Point Analytics 547 · LV R-LEAN — — 47 · 44 Jul 11, 20 Change Research/CNBC 655 · LV D-LEAN D +5.1 6 tracked +1.1 aligned 49 · 42 Jul 7, 20 Public Policy Polling 818 · unknown NEUTRAL D +0.9 104 tracked +2.4 noisy 47 · 39 Jun 27, 20 Change Research/CNBC 468 · LV D-LEAN D +5.1 6 tracked +1.1 aligned 51 · 41 Jun 24, 20 East Carolina University 1,149 · RV NEUTRAL D +1.8 8 tracked -0.5 aligned 41 · 41 Jun 22, 20 Public Policy Polling 1,157 · unknown NEUTRAL D +0.9 104 tracked +2.4 noisy 44 · 40 Jun 22, 20 Fox News 1,012 · RV D-LEAN D +2.1 21 tracked +2.7 d lean 39 · 37 Jun 17, 20 NYT Upshot/Siena College 653 · RV NEUTRAL D +1.7 3 tracked -2.4 r lean 42 · 39 Jun 16, 20 Gravis Marketing +1 631 · RV D-LEAN D +2.9 33 tracked +0.1 aligned 45 · 46 Jun 16, 20 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 902 · LV D-LEAN D +5.3 5 tracked -0.1 aligned 45 · 36 Jun 2, 20 Public Policy Polling 913 · unknown NEUTRAL D +0.9 104 tracked +2.4 noisy 43 · 41 May 27, 20 Harper Polling/Civitas 500 · LV R-LEAN — — 36 · 38 May 12, 20 Meeting Street Insights 500 · RV NEUTRAL — — 46 · 44 May 8, 20 East Carolina University 1,111 · RV NEUTRAL D +1.8 8 tracked -0.5 aligned 41 · 40 May 3, 20 Civiqs/Daily Kos 1,362 · RV D-LEAN D +4.0 5 tracked -0.9 aligned 50 · 41 Apr 27, 20 Meredith College 604 · RV NEUTRAL — — 44 · 34 Apr 25, 20 SurveyUSA +1 580 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.1 94 tracked -0.5 aligned 41 · 39 Apr 14, 20 Public Policy Polling +1 1,318 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.9 104 tracked +2.4 noisy 47 · 40 Apr 6, 20 Harper Polling/Civitas 500 · LV R-LEAN — — 34 · 38 Feb 27, 20 East Carolina University 1,288 · RV NEUTRAL D +1.8 8 tracked -0.5 aligned 42 · 44 Feb 26, 20 NBC News/Marist +2 2,120 · RV D-LEAN D +5.1 11 tracked -0.8 aligned 48 · 43 Feb 25, 20 Public Policy Polling +1 911 · RV NEUTRAL D +0.9 104 tracked +2.4 noisy 46 · 41 Jan 14, 20 Public Opinion Strategies +1 800 · LV NEUTRAL R +7.3 3 tracked -2.7 r lean 44 · 48 Jan 12, 20 A.L.G. Research +1 700 · LV NEUTRAL — — 44 · 42 Oct 6, 19 Meredith College 996 · RV NEUTRAL — — 33 · 33 Sep 16, 19 Public Policy Polling +1 628 · unknown NEUTRAL D +0.9 104 tracked +2.4 noisy 45 · 43 Jul 30, 19 Fabrizio Ward 600 · LV NEUTRAL — — 42 · 41 Jul 30, 19 Fabrizio Ward 600 · LV NEUTRAL — — 26 Jun 17, 19 Public Policy Polling +1 610 · RV NEUTRAL D +0.9 104 tracked +2.4 noisy 41 · 40 Jun 30, 17 Public Policy Polling +1 1,102 · unknown NEUTRAL D +0.9 104 tracked +2.4 noisy 44
Endorsements · 3 total Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet Tillis · 100% 3
Endorsements tracked
Cal Cunningham 0 · 0%
Thom Tillis 3 · 100%
Total 3
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
R Thom Tillis 3 endorsers
Most notable · George W. Bush · 43rd president of the United States
Other 2
Other · 2
John Bolton · former United States National Security Advisor Susan B. Anthony List Elected officials 1
Federal 1 State 0 Local 0
Elected officials · 1
George W. Bush · 43rd president of the United States D Cal Cunningham 0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
L Shannon Bray 0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
REP Thomas Roland Tillis 0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-12-31 Top industries
Securities & investment $132.6K
Securities & investment · $132.6K
Blackstone · $53.3K Goldman Sachs · $32.0K Apollo Global Management · $28.7K Fidelity Investments · $18.6K Restaurants & drinking $18.7K
Restaurants & drinking · $18.7K
Top contributors
BLACKSTONE $53.3K
GOLDMAN SACHS $32.0K
CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS $31.8K
ELLIOTT MANAGEMENT $28.7K
APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT $28.7K
Top industries
Education $369.4K
Education · $369.4K
Duke University · $183.4K University of North Carolina at Chapel · $67.6K University of North Carolina · $61.0K Harvard University · $57.4K Internet $309.6K
Internet · $309.6K
Google · $189.7K Google, INC. · $61.9K Facebook · $58.0K Computers / electronics $105.8K
Computers / electronics · $105.8K
Microsoft · $55.7K Amazon · $50.0K Top contributors
GOOGLE $189.7K
DUKE UNIVERSITY $183.4K
UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA AT CHAPEL $67.6K
GOOGLE, INC. $61.9K
UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA $61.0K
Outside spending · independent expenditures FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports Top spender
AMERICANS FOR PROSP…
For / against split
For Cunningham $7.3M
Against Tillis $5.9M
Against Cunningham $8.0M
For Tillis $27.6M
Spender Side Amount Share Target AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC.(AFP ACTION) super pac · boosts R
Spent · $33.9M Direction · for Thom Tillis Share of IE · 69% R $33.9M 69% for Thom Tillis PRIORITIES USA ACTION super pac · boosts D
Spent · $8.2M Direction · for Cal Cunningham Share of IE · 17% D $8.2M 17% for Cal Cunningham FF PAC super pac · boosts D
Spent · $2.7M Direction · against Thom Tillis Share of IE · 6% D $2.7M 6% against Thom Tillis RESULTS FOR NC, INC. super pac · boosts R
Spent · $950.0K Direction · against Cal Cunningham Share of IE · 2% R $950.0K 2% against Cal Cunningham SMP super pac · boosts D
Spent · $816.1K Direction · against Thom Tillis Share of IE · 2% D $816.1K 2% against Thom Tillis AMERICA'S PROGRESSIVE PROMISE PAC super pac · boosts D
Spent · $500.0K Direction · for Cal Cunningham Share of IE · 1% D $500.0K 1% for Cal Cunningham THE DOGWOOD COALITION INC. pac · boosts R
Spent · $334.0K Direction · for Thom Tillis Share of IE · 1% R $334.0K 1% for Thom Tillis SENATE LEADERSHIP FUND super pac · boosts R
Spent · $210.1K Direction · against Cal Cunningham Share of IE · 0% R $210.1K 0% against Cal Cunningham
Editorial ratings · 5 raters Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al. Lean D 3 Lean D · 3 raters
DDHQ · Nov 2 538 · Nov 1 Sabato's Crystal Ball · Nov 1 Tilt D 1 Tilt D · 1 rater
Inside Elections · Oct 27 Tossup 1 Tossup · 1 rater
The Cook Political Report · Oct 28 The Cook Political Report
Tossup Oct 28
Inside Elections
Tilt D Oct 27
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D Nov 1
Demographic crosstabs age · education · race · gender No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026 Tossup model Jul 1, 2026 · change
Moved to Tossup
From Tilt D
Model margin D +0.5
Jun 22, 2026 Tilt D model Jun 22, 2026 · change
Moved to Tilt D
From Tossup
Model margin D +0.8
May 11, 2026 Tossup model May 11, 2026 · change
Moved to Tossup
Model margin R +0.4
Verification trail
Polls verified 119 / 121deterministic
Polls flagged 1needs review
Markets ingested 0 platformsnone listed
FEC filings syncedcommittee + IE · 2020-12-31
Endorsements 3 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage < 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks