Races · Senate · 2018 · TN

Senate · class II · open seat

Phil Bredesen vs Marsha Blackburn

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Likely R — · 44 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2748d ago Rating 1d ago

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Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 44 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

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Likely R

likely-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 44 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:44 of 44 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
10/31/2018	Targoz Market Research	0.77	—(R+1.0)	480	—	unknown	2748d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+1 2748d old Poll was fielded 2748 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 26 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. bias R+1.0pt Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+1.0pt.	Marsha Blackburn 49.0 · Phil Bredesen 49.0	poll arch
10/30/2018	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	621	±4.0	unknown	2749d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2749d old Poll was fielded 2749 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Marsha Blackburn 52.0 · Phil Bredesen 44.0	poll arch
10/30/2018	Fox News	1.00	—(D+2.6)	718	±3.5	LV	bias D+2.6pt2749d old+1 bias D+2.6pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt. 2749d old Poll was fielded 2749 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Marsha Blackburn 50.0 · Phil Bredesen 41.0	poll arch
10/29/2018	Vox Populi Polling	0.96	—(D+1.9)	780	±3.5	unknown	2750d oldtracks editorial consensus 2750d old Poll was fielded 2750 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Marsha Blackburn 53.0 · Phil Bredesen 47.0	poll arch
10/29/2018	CNN/SSRS	1.00	—(D+4.4)	764	±4.3	LV	historical bias D+4.4pt2750d old+1 historical bias D+4.4pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.4pt — a measurable house effect. 2750d old Poll was fielded 2750 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Marsha Blackburn 49.0 · Phil Bredesen 45.0	poll arch
10/29/2018	East Tennessee State University	1.00	—	495	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls2750d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2750d old Poll was fielded 2750 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Marsha Blackburn 44.0 · Phil Bredesen 44.0	poll arch
10/27/2018	Cygnal	1.04	R(D+1.8)	497	±4.4	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned2752d old+1 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. 2752d old Poll was fielded 2752 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 72 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Marsha Blackburn 51.0 · Phil Bredesen 45.0	poll arch
10/27/2018	NBC News/Marist	0.75	L(D+5.1)	471	±5.7	LV	historical bias D+5.1pt2752d old+2 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 2752d old Poll was fielded 2752 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Marsha Blackburn 51.0 · Phil Bredesen 46.0	poll arch
10/13/2018	Vanderbilt University/SSRS	1.00	—	800	±4.9	unknown	no scored polls2766d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2766d old Poll was fielded 2766 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Marsha Blackburn 43.0 · Phil Bredesen 44.0	poll arch
10/12/2018	Targoz Market Research	0.77	—(R+1.0)	558	—	LV	2767d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+2 2767d old Poll was fielded 2767 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 26 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias R+1.0pt Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+1.0pt.	Marsha Blackburn 52.0 · Phil Bredesen 48.0	poll arch
10/11/2018	NYT Upshot/Siena College	0.87	—(D+1.7)	593	±4.2	unknown	3 scored polls2768d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 2768d old Poll was fielded 2768 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: Siena College Commissioned by Siena College, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Marsha Blackburn 54.0 · Phil Bredesen 40.0	poll arch
10/11/2018	Ipsos	1.00	—(R+1.9)	1108	±3.4	unknown	2768d oldtracks editorial consensus 2768d old Poll was fielded 2768 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Marsha Blackburn 47.0 · Phil Bredesen 44.0	poll arch
10/5/2018	YouGov	1.00	—(D+3.7)	871	±3.6	unknown	historical bias D+3.7pt2774d old historical bias D+3.7pt Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. 2774d old Poll was fielded 2774 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Marsha Blackburn 50.0 · Phil Bredesen 42.0	poll arch
10/2/2018	Fox News	1.00	—(D+2.6)	666	±3.5	LV	bias D+2.6pt2777d old+1 bias D+2.6pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt. 2777d old Poll was fielded 2777 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Marsha Blackburn 48.0 · Phil Bredesen 43.0	poll arch
9/25/2018	Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Bredesen)	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls2784d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2784d old Poll was fielded 2784 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Marsha Blackburn 45.0 · Phil Bredesen 47.0	poll arch
9/24/2018	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	1609	±3.3	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt2785d old+2 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 2785d old Poll was fielded 2785 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. n=1,609 Sample size of 1,609 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Marsha Blackburn 42.0 · Phil Bredesen 42.0	poll arch
9/18/2018	Vox Populi Polling	0.96	—(D+1.9)	567	±4.1	unknown	2791d oldtracks editorial consensus 2791d old Poll was fielded 2791 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Marsha Blackburn 49.0 · Phil Bredesen 51.0	poll arch
9/15/2018	CNN/SSRS	1.00	—(D+4.4)	723	±4.3	LV	historical bias D+4.4pt2794d old+1 historical bias D+4.4pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.4pt — a measurable house effect. 2794d old Poll was fielded 2794 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Marsha Blackburn 45.0 · Phil Bredesen 50.0	poll arch
9/12/2018	Triton Polling & Research	1.00	R	1038	±3.0	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2797d old Poll was fielded 2797 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Marsha Blackburn 48.0 · Phil Bredesen 45.0	poll arch
9/11/2018	Fox News	1.00	—(D+2.6)	686	±3.5	LV	bias D+2.6pt2798d old+1 bias D+2.6pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt. 2798d old Poll was fielded 2798 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Marsha Blackburn 47.0 · Phil Bredesen 44.0	poll arch
8/28/2018	NBC News/Marist	0.75	L(D+5.1)	538	±5.1	LV	historical bias D+5.1pt2812d old+2 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 2812d old Poll was fielded 2812 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Marsha Blackburn 46.0 · Phil Bredesen 48.0	poll arch
8/11/2018	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	620	±3.9	unknown	bias D+2.9pt2829d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 2829d old Poll was fielded 2829 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Marsha Blackburn 48.0 · Phil Bredesen 44.0	poll arch
7/14/2018	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	657	±4.1	unknown	2857d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2857d old Poll was fielded 2857 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Marsha Blackburn 37.0 · Phil Bredesen 43.0	poll arch
7/11/2018	Public Policy Polling (D-Duty and Country Pac)	1.00	—	583	±4.1	unknown	no scored polls2860d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2860d old Poll was fielded 2860 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Marsha Blackburn 41.0 · Phil Bredesen 44.0	poll arch
7/11/2018	WPA Intelligence (R-CDP PAC)	1.00	—	551	±4.2	unknown	no scored polls2860d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2860d old Poll was fielded 2860 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Marsha Blackburn 38.0 · Phil Bredesen 35.0	poll arch
7/2/2018	SurveyMonkey/Axios	1.00	—	1010	±4.5	unknown	no scored polls2869d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2869d old Poll was fielded 2869 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: Axios Commissioned by Axios, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Marsha Blackburn 55.0 · Phil Bredesen 41.0	poll arch
5/1/2018	Public Policy Polling (D-Health Care Voter)	1.00	—	609	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls2931d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2931d old Poll was fielded 2931 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Marsha Blackburn 43.0 · Phil Bredesen 46.0	poll arch
4/23/2018	SurveyMonkey/Axios	1.00	—	1638	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls2939d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2939d old Poll was fielded 2939 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: Axios Commissioned by Axios, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. n=1,638 Sample size of 1,638 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Marsha Blackburn 47.0 · Phil Bredesen 48.0	poll arch
4/19/2018	Mason-Dixon	0.56	R(R+2.4)	625	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.4pt2943d old+1 bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. 2943d old Poll was fielded 2943 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Marsha Blackburn 43.0 · Phil Bredesen 46.0	poll arch
4/11/2018	Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Bredesen)	1.00	—	601	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls2951d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2951d old Poll was fielded 2951 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Marsha Blackburn 41.0 · Phil Bredesen 51.0	poll arch
3/29/2018	Middle Tennessee State University	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls2964d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2964d old Poll was fielded 2964 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Marsha Blackburn 35.0 · Phil Bredesen 45.0	poll arch
3/16/2018	Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)	1.00	—	1014	±3.1	unknown	no scored polls2977d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2977d old Poll was fielded 2977 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Marsha Blackburn 41.0 · Phil Bredesen 46.0	poll arch
2/15/2018	WPA Intelligence (R-CDP PAC)	1.00	—	500	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls3006d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3006d old Poll was fielded 3006 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Marsha Blackburn 44.0 · Phil Bredesen 39.0	poll arch
2/15/2018	WPA Intelligence (R-CDP PAC)	1.00	—	500	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls3006d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3006d old Poll was fielded 3006 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bob Corker 35.0 · Phil Bredesen 44.0	poll arch
1/29/2018	Public Opinion Strategies *	1.00	—	—	—	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+2 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3023d old Poll was fielded 3023 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n unknown Pollster did not publish a sample size for this poll.	Marsha Blackburn 45.0 · Phil Bredesen 47.0	poll arch
1/24/2018	Triton Polling & Research	1.00	R	1003	±3.1	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3028d old Poll was fielded 3028 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Marsha Blackburn 51.0 · Phil Bredesen 40.0	poll arch
1/24/2018	Triton Polling & Research	1.00	R	1004	±3.1	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3028d old Poll was fielded 3028 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Stephen Fincher 38.0 · Phil Bredesen 42.0	poll arch
1/24/2018	Triton Polling & Research	1.00	R	1004	±3.1	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3028d old Poll was fielded 3028 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Marsha Blackburn 48.0 · Phil Bredesen 37.0 · Clay Travis 6.0	poll arch
1/24/2018	Triton Polling & Research	1.00	R	1004	±3.1	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3028d old Poll was fielded 3028 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Stephen Fincher 35.0 · Phil Bredesen 39.0 · Clay Travis 10.0	poll arch
12/12/2017	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	563	±4.1	unknown	bias D+2.9pt3071d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 3071d old Poll was fielded 3071 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Marsha Blackburn 40.0 · Phil Bredesen 42.0	poll arch
12/12/2017	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	563	±4.1	unknown	bias D+2.9pt3071d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 3071d old Poll was fielded 3071 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Stephen Fincher 38.0 · Phil Bredesen 42.0	poll arch
12/12/2017	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	563	±4.1	unknown	bias D+2.9pt3071d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 3071d old Poll was fielded 3071 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Peyton Manning 44.0 · Phil Bredesen 39.0	poll arch
10/22/2017	Garin-Hart-Yang (D-DSCC)	1.00	—	601	±4.1	unknown	no scored polls3122d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3122d old Poll was fielded 3122 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Marsha Blackburn 41.0 · Phil Bredesen 46.0	poll arch
8/13/2017	Public Policy Polling (D-Our Lives on the Line)	1.00	—	663	±3.6	unknown	no scored polls3192d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3192d old Poll was fielded 3192 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bob Corker 47.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 1 total

Bob Corker (R)

1 endorsement · source

Other (1)

Blackburn — 70–80%

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

5 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Tossup	Oct 26	—	0.0	—
FiveThirtyEight	Likely R	Nov 5	—	-9.0	—
Inside Elections	Lean R	Nov 1	—	-3.5	—
RealClearPolitics	Tossup	Nov 5	—	0.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean R	Nov 5	—	-3.5	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 92 months ago (10/31/2018) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Likely R via pvi