Beto O'Rourke vs Ted Cruz

Methodology not disclosed publicly; declined to participate in AAPOR Transparency Initiative. Included for transparency rather than weight-zeroing — many forecasters still include their polls — but the methodology opacity is worth surfacing. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trafalgar_Group

This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.

Poll was fielded 2743 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 7 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.1pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom.

Sample size of 2,135 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.1pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2746 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Poll was fielded 2749 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.

Poll was fielded 2751 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2751 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2753 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2758 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2758 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Poll was fielded 2761 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2765 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.4pt — a measurable house effect.

Poll was fielded 2766 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2766 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.

Poll was fielded 2768 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Commissioned by Siena College, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.

Poll was fielded 2770 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect.

Poll was fielded 2774 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Poll was fielded 2774 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2789 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2789 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Poll was fielded 2791 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Poll was fielded 2792 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Poll was fielded 2795 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2797 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2800 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2802 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Poll was fielded 2815 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.

Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect.

Poll was fielded 2824 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.5pt.

Poll was fielded 2829 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Pollster did not publish a sample size for this poll.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2838 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Poll was fielded 2840 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2845 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt.

Poll was fielded 2864 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.

Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect.

Poll was fielded 2879 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2884 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2896 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Poll was fielded 2903 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2904 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2910 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2911 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Poll was fielded 2945 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 3034 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 3069 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 3318 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 3318 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Poll was fielded 3556 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.

Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.

Poll was fielded 3556 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.

Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 3561 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.