Races · Senate · 2018 · UT

Senate · class II · open seat

Jenny Wilson vs Mitt Romney

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Likely R — · 14 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2770d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 14 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely R

likely-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 14 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:14 of 14 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
10/9/2018	University of Utah	1.00	—	607	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls2770d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2770d old Poll was fielded 2770 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mitt Romney 59.0 · Jenny Wilson 23.0	poll arch
8/31/2018	Dan Jones & Associates	1.00	—	809	±3.4	unknown	no scored polls2809d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2809d old Poll was fielded 2809 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mitt Romney 55.0 · Jenny Wilson 29.0	poll arch
8/27/2018	Lighthouse Research	1.00	—	2400	—	unknown	no scored polls2813d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2813d old Poll was fielded 2813 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=2,400 Sample size of 2,400 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.0pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Mitt Romney 59.0 · Jenny Wilson 19.0	poll arch
6/18/2018	University of Utah	1.00	—	654	±3.9	unknown	no scored polls2883d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2883d old Poll was fielded 2883 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mitt Romney 58.0 · Jenny Wilson 20.0	poll arch
6/18/2018	Dan Jones & Associates	1.00	—	654	±3.9	unknown	no scored polls2883d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2883d old Poll was fielded 2883 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mike Kennedy 43.0 · Jenny Wilson 28.0	poll arch
2/16/2018	Dan Jones & Associates	1.00	—	609	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls3005d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3005d old Poll was fielded 3005 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mitt Romney 60.0 · Jenny Wilson 14.0 · Craig Bowden 3.0 · Dan McCay 2.0 · Mitchell Vice 1.0 · Larry Meyers 1.0 · Alicia Colvin 1.0 · Jay Hyatt 1.0 · L'Capi Titus 0.0 · Timothy Jimenez 0.0	poll arch
1/18/2018	Dan Jones & Associates	1.00	—	803	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls3034d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3034d old Poll was fielded 3034 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mitt Romney 64.0 · Jenny Wilson 19.0	poll arch
11/21/2017	Dan Jones & Associates	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls3092d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3092d old Poll was fielded 3092 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mitt Romney 72.0 · Jenny Wilson 21.0	poll arch
11/21/2017	Dan Jones & Associates	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls3092d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3092d old Poll was fielded 3092 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Orrin Hatch 50.0 · Jenny Wilson 35.0	poll arch
9/5/2017	Dan Jones & Associates	1.00	—	608	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls3169d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3169d old Poll was fielded 3169 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mitt Romney 64.0 · Jenny Wilson 26.0	poll arch
9/5/2017	Dan Jones & Associates	1.00	—	608	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls3169d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3169d old Poll was fielded 3169 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Orrin Hatch 34.0 · Jenny Wilson 45.0	poll arch
9/5/2017	Dan Jones & Associates	1.00	—	608	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls3169d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3169d old Poll was fielded 3169 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Chris Stewart 34.0 · Jenny Wilson 30.0	poll arch
9/5/2017	Dan Jones & Associates	1.00	—	608	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls3169d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3169d old Poll was fielded 3169 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Matt Holland 23.0 · Jenny Wilson 30.0	poll arch
3/20/2017	JMC Analytics	1.00	R	625	±3.9	unknown	no scored polls3338d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3338d old Poll was fielded 3338 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Orrin Hatch 29.0 · Evan McMullin 33.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

4 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Safe R	Oct 26	—	-18.0	—
Inside Elections	Safe R	Nov 1	—	-18.0	—
RealClearPolitics	Safe R	Nov 5	—	-18.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe R	Nov 5	—	-18.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 92 months ago (10/9/2018) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Likely R via pvi