Races · Senate · 2018 · RI

Senate · class II · open seat

Sheldon Whitehouse vs Robert Flanders

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Likely D — · 6 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2755d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 6 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely D

likely-d

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 6 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:6 of 6 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
10/24/2018	Fleming & Associates	0.73	—(R+5.5)	416	±4.8	unknown	3 scored polls2755d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 2755d old Poll was fielded 2755 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Sheldon Whitehouse 55.0 · Robert Flanders 36.0	poll arch
10/9/2018	SocialSphere	1.00	—	502	—	unknown	no scored polls2770d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2770d old Poll was fielded 2770 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Sheldon Whitehouse 56.0 · Robert Flanders 32.0	poll arch
10/6/2018	University of New Hampshire	1.00	—(R+0.9)	503	±4.4	unknown	2773d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+1 2773d old Poll was fielded 2773 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. bias R+0.9pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.	Sheldon Whitehouse 57.0 · Robert Flanders 33.0	poll arch
9/17/2018	Fleming & Associates	0.73	—(R+5.5)	420	±4.8	unknown	3 scored polls2792d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 2792d old Poll was fielded 2792 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Sheldon Whitehouse 54.0 · Robert Flanders 35.0	poll arch
6/4/2018	SocialSphere	1.00	—	501	—	unknown	no scored polls2897d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2897d old Poll was fielded 2897 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Sheldon Whitehouse 54.0 · Robert Flanders 32.0	poll arch
6/4/2018	SocialSphere	1.00	—	501	—	unknown	no scored polls2897d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2897d old Poll was fielded 2897 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Sheldon Whitehouse 53.0 · Robert Nardolillo 31.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Safe D	Oct 26	—	+18.0	—
Inside Elections	Safe D	Nov 1	—	+18.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe D	Nov 5	—	+18.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 92 months ago (10/24/2018) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Likely D via pvi