Races · Senate · 2018 · PA

Senate · class II · open seat

Bob Casey Jr. vs Lou Barletta

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Tilt R — · 20 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2744d ago Rating 1d ago

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Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 20 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

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Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 20 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:20 of 20 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/4/2018	Change Research	0.61	L(D+3.7)	1833	—	unknown	historical bias D+3.7pt2744d old+2 historical bias D+3.7pt Across 18 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. 2744d old Poll was fielded 2744 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 30 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. n=1,833 Sample size of 1,833 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Bob Casey Jr. 51.0 · Lou Barletta 44.0	poll arch
11/3/2018	Research Co.	1.01	—(D+1.5)	450	±4.6	unknown	2745d oldbias D+1.5pt+1 2745d old Poll was fielded 2745 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+1.5pt Across 49 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.5pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 53 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bob Casey Jr. 56.0 · Lou Barletta 39.0	poll arch
11/1/2018	Muhlenberg College	1.33	—(D+1.1)	421	±5.5	unknown	2747d oldtracks editorial consensus 2747d old Poll was fielded 2747 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bob Casey Jr. 54.0 · Lou Barletta 40.0	poll arch
10/28/2018	Franklin & Marshall College	0.91	L(D+4.4)	214	±9.5	LV	n=2142751d old+2 n=214 Sample size of 214 respondents implies a margin of error around ±6.7pt — wider than typical. 2751d old Poll was fielded 2751 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+4.7pt vs editors Across 15 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.7pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Bob Casey Jr. 50.0 · Lou Barletta 35.0	poll arch
10/2/2018	Morning Consult	1.00	—(D+5.0)	1188	±3.0	unknown	historical bias D+5.0pt2777d old+1 historical bias D+5.0pt Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. 2777d old Poll was fielded 2777 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bob Casey Jr. 47.0 · Lou Barletta 32.0	poll arch
9/23/2018	Franklin & Marshall College	0.91	L(D+4.4)	204	—	LV	n=2042786d old+2 n=204 Sample size of 204 respondents implies a margin of error around ±6.9pt — wider than typical. 2786d old Poll was fielded 2786 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+4.7pt vs editors Across 15 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.7pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Bob Casey Jr. 50.0 · Lou Barletta 33.0	poll arch
9/20/2018	Ipsos	1.00	—(R+1.9)	1080	±3.0	unknown	2789d oldtracks editorial consensus 2789d old Poll was fielded 2789 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bob Casey Jr. 53.0 · Lou Barletta 37.0	poll arch
9/19/2018	Muhlenberg College	1.33	—(D+1.1)	404	±5.5	unknown	2790d oldtracks editorial consensus 2790d old Poll was fielded 2790 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bob Casey Jr. 53.0 · Lou Barletta 35.0	poll arch
9/13/2018	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	800	±3.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt2796d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 2796d old Poll was fielded 2796 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bob Casey Jr. 52.0 · Lou Barletta 38.0	poll arch
8/26/2018	Franklin & Marshall College	0.91	L(D+4.4)	222	—	LV	n=2222814d old+2 n=222 Sample size of 222 respondents implies a margin of error around ±6.6pt — wider than typical. 2814d old Poll was fielded 2814 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+4.7pt vs editors Across 15 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.7pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Bob Casey Jr. 47.0 · Lou Barletta 34.0	poll arch
8/16/2018	NBC News/Marist	0.75	L(D+5.1)	713	±4.2	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt2824d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 2824d old Poll was fielded 2824 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bob Casey Jr. 53.0 · Lou Barletta 38.0	poll arch
8/15/2018	Commonwealth Leaders Fund	1.00	R	2012	±3.6	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+2 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2825d old Poll was fielded 2825 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=2,012 Sample size of 2,012 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Bob Casey Jr. 47.0 · Lou Barletta 45.0	poll arch
7/2/2018	SurveyMonkey/Axios	1.00	—	990	±4.5	unknown	no scored polls2869d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2869d old Poll was fielded 2869 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: Axios Commissioned by Axios, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Bob Casey Jr. 55.0 · Lou Barletta 41.0	poll arch
6/25/2018	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	2876d oldbias D+0.1pt+1 2876d old Poll was fielded 2876 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bob Casey Jr. 47.0 · Lou Barletta 32.0	poll arch
6/10/2018	Franklin & Marshall College	0.91	L(D+4.4)	472	±6.5	unknown	2891d oldD+4.7pt vs editors 2891d old Poll was fielded 2891 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+4.7pt vs editors Across 15 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.7pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.	Bob Casey Jr. 44.0 · Lou Barletta 27.0	poll arch
4/12/2018	Muhlenberg College	1.33	—(D+1.1)	414	±5.5	unknown	2950d oldtracks editorial consensus 2950d old Poll was fielded 2950 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bob Casey Jr. 48.0 · Lou Barletta 32.0	poll arch
4/12/2018	Muhlenberg College	1.33	—(D+1.1)	414	±5.5	unknown	2950d oldtracks editorial consensus 2950d old Poll was fielded 2950 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bob Casey Jr. 48.0 · Jim Christiana 29.0	poll arch
3/26/2018	Franklin & Marshall College	0.91	L(D+4.4)	423	±6.8	unknown	2967d oldD+4.7pt vs editors 2967d old Poll was fielded 2967 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+4.7pt vs editors Across 15 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.7pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.	Bob Casey Jr. 43.0 · Lou Barletta 25.0	poll arch
3/16/2018	Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)	1.00	—	1056	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls2977d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2977d old Poll was fielded 2977 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bob Casey Jr. 54.0 · Lou Barletta 36.0	poll arch
3/5/2018	SurveyMonkey/Axios	1.00	—	2165	±3.8	unknown	no scored polls2988d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2988d old Poll was fielded 2988 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: Axios Commissioned by Axios, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. n=2,165 Sample size of 2,165 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.1pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Bob Casey Jr. 52.0 · Lou Barletta 43.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

4 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Likely D	Oct 26	—	+9.0	—
Inside Elections	Safe D	Nov 1	—	+18.0	—
RealClearPolitics	Likely D	Nov 5	—	+9.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe D	Nov 5	—	+18.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 91 months ago (11/4/2018) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Tilt R via pvi