Races · Senate · 2018 · OH
Senate · class II · open seat

Sherrod Brown vs Jim Renacci

Lean R · 36 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2744d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 36 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R

lean-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 36 results

36 of 36 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
11/4/2018Change Research0.61L(D+3.7)923unknown
historical bias D+3.7pt2744d old+1
  • historical bias D+3.7pt
    Across 18 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 2744d old
    Poll was fielded 2744 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 30 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
Sherrod Brown 53.0 · Jim Renacci 43.0pollarch
11/3/2018Research Co.1.01(D+1.5)450±4.6unknown
2745d oldbias D+1.5pt+1
  • 2745d old
    Poll was fielded 2745 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • bias D+1.5pt
    Across 49 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.5pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 53 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Sherrod Brown 53.0 · Jim Renacci 39.0pollarch
10/31/2018Cygnal1.04R(D+1.8)503±4.4unknown
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned2748d old+1
  • commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • 2748d old
    Poll was fielded 2748 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 72 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Sherrod Brown 52.0 · Jim Renacci 42.0pollarch
10/30/2018Gravis Marketing0.72L(D+2.9)789±3.5unknown
bias D+2.9pt2749d old+1
  • bias D+2.9pt
    Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt.
  • 2749d old
    Poll was fielded 2749 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
Sherrod Brown 46.0 · Jim Renacci 37.0pollarch
10/28/2018Emerson College1.00(D+0.7)566±4.3unknown
2751d oldtracks editorial consensus+1
  • 2751d old
    Poll was fielded 2751 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Sherrod Brown 49.0 · Jim Renacci 43.0pollarch
10/27/2018Baldwin Wallace University0.47(D+8.5)1051±3.8unknown
weight 0.474 scored polls+2
  • weight 0.47
    Aggregation weight is 0.47 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 2752d old
    Poll was fielded 2752 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+5.3pt vs editors
    Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 5.3pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
Sherrod Brown 51.0 · Jim Renacci 32.0pollarch
10/8/2018Suffolk University1.44neutral(D+0.1)500±4.4unknown
2771d oldbias D+0.1pt+1
  • 2771d old
    Poll was fielded 2771 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • bias D+0.1pt
    Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Sherrod Brown 54.0 · Jim Renacci 36.0pollarch
10/8/2018Baldwin Wallace University0.47(D+8.5)1017±3.5unknown
weight 0.474 scored polls+2
  • weight 0.47
    Aggregation weight is 0.47 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 2771d old
    Poll was fielded 2771 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+5.3pt vs editors
    Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 5.3pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
Sherrod Brown 50.0 · Jim Renacci 33.0pollarch
10/4/2018University of Akron1.001000±3.0unknown
no scored polls2775d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2775d old
    Poll was fielded 2775 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Sherrod Brown 43.0 · Jim Renacci 31.0pollarch
9/21/2018Ipsos1.00(R+1.9)1074±3.0unknown
2788d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 2788d old
    Poll was fielded 2788 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Sherrod Brown 50.0 · Jim Renacci 39.0pollarch
9/20/2018Triton Polling & Research1.00R1003±3.1unknown
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+1
  • commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2789d old
    Poll was fielded 2789 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Sherrod Brown 53.0 · Jim Renacci 42.0pollarch
9/20/2018NBC News/Marist0.75L(D+5.1)564±5.0LV
historical bias D+5.1pt2789d old+2
  • historical bias D+5.1pt
    Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 2789d old
    Poll was fielded 2789 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Sherrod Brown 49.0 · Jim Renacci 35.0pollarch
9/15/2018Baldwin Wallace University0.47(D+8.5)1048±3.6unknown
weight 0.474 scored polls+2
  • weight 0.47
    Aggregation weight is 0.47 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 2794d old
    Poll was fielded 2794 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+5.3pt vs editors
    Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 5.3pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
Sherrod Brown 49.0 · Jim Renacci 32.0pollarch
9/11/2018Morning Consult1.00(D+5.0)1592±2.0unknown
historical bias D+5.0pt2798d old+2
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 2798d old
    Poll was fielded 2798 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • n=1,592
    Sample size of 1,592 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Sherrod Brown 47.0 · Jim Renacci 31.0pollarch
9/4/2018Change Research (D-Innovation Ohio)1.00822±3.0unknown
no scored polls2805d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2805d old
    Poll was fielded 2805 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Sherrod Brown 46.0 · Jim Renacci 42.0pollarch
7/10/2018TRZ Communications (R-WTPC)1.001485±3.0unknown
no scored polls2861d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2861d old
    Poll was fielded 2861 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Sherrod Brown 45.0 · Jim Renacci 41.0pollarch
7/2/2018SurveyMonkey/Axios1.00951±5.0unknown
no scored polls2869d old+1
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2869d old
    Poll was fielded 2869 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • newspaper-sponsored: Axios
    Commissioned by Axios, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
Sherrod Brown 52.0 · Jim Renacci 44.0pollarch
6/22/2018NBC News/Marist0.75L(D+5.1)778±4.4unknown
historical bias D+5.1pt2879d old+1
  • historical bias D+5.1pt
    Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 2879d old
    Poll was fielded 2879 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Sherrod Brown 51.0 · Jim Renacci 38.0pollarch
6/12/2018Quinnipiac University1.00(D+1.9)1082±3.7unknown
2889d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 2889d old
    Poll was fielded 2889 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Sherrod Brown 51.0 · Jim Renacci 34.0pollarch
6/11/2018Suffolk University1.44neutral(D+0.1)500±4.4unknown
2890d oldbias D+0.1pt+1
  • 2890d old
    Poll was fielded 2890 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • bias D+0.1pt
    Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Sherrod Brown 53.0 · Jim Renacci 37.0pollarch
5/31/2018America First Action1.00R400±4.9unknown
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+1
  • commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2901d old
    Poll was fielded 2901 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Sherrod Brown 45.0 · Jim Renacci 41.0pollarch
5/25/2018Fallon Research1.00800±3.5unknown
no scored polls2907d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2907d old
    Poll was fielded 2907 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Sherrod Brown 48.0 · Jim Renacci 34.0pollarch
3/20/2018SurveyUSA1.00(D+1.5)1408±3.5unknown
2973d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 2973d old
    Poll was fielded 2973 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Sherrod Brown 52.0 · Jim Renacci 38.0pollarch
3/20/2018SurveyUSA1.00(D+1.5)1408±3.5unknown
2973d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 2973d old
    Poll was fielded 2973 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Sherrod Brown 52.0 · Mike Gibbons 38.0pollarch
3/20/2018SurveyUSA1.00(D+1.5)1408±3.5unknown
2973d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 2973d old
    Poll was fielded 2973 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Sherrod Brown 52.0 · Melissa Ackison 37.0pollarch
3/20/2018SurveyUSA1.00(D+1.5)1408±3.5unknown
2973d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 2973d old
    Poll was fielded 2973 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Sherrod Brown 53.0 · Don Eckhart 37.0pollarch
3/20/2018SurveyUSA1.00(D+1.5)1408±3.5unknown
2973d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 2973d old
    Poll was fielded 2973 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Sherrod Brown 52.0 · Dan Kiley 37.0pollarch
3/9/2018Baldwin Wallace University0.47(D+8.5)1011±3.0unknown
weight 0.474 scored polls+2
  • weight 0.47
    Aggregation weight is 0.47 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 2984d old
    Poll was fielded 2984 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+5.3pt vs editors
    Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 5.3pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
Sherrod Brown 41.0 · Jim Renacci 29.0pollarch
3/9/2018Baldwin Wallace University0.47(D+8.5)1011±3.0unknown
weight 0.474 scored polls+2
  • weight 0.47
    Aggregation weight is 0.47 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 2984d old
    Poll was fielded 2984 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+5.3pt vs editors
    Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 5.3pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
Sherrod Brown 41.0 · Mike Gibbons 31.0pollarch
3/5/2018SurveyMonkey/Axios1.001995±3.6unknown
no scored polls2988d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2988d old
    Poll was fielded 2988 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • newspaper-sponsored: Axios
    Commissioned by Axios, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • n=1,995
    Sample size of 1,995 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Sherrod Brown 50.0 · Jim Renacci 45.0pollarch
6/12/2017Luntz Global1.00500±4.4unknown
no scored polls3254d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 3254d old
    Poll was fielded 3254 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Sherrod Brown 53.0 · Josh Mandel 34.0pollarch
5/2/2017Gravis Marketing0.72L(D+2.9)1352±2.7unknown
bias D+2.9pt3295d old+1
  • bias D+2.9pt
    Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt.
  • 3295d old
    Poll was fielded 3295 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
Sherrod Brown 43.0 · Pat Tiberi 41.0pollarch
5/2/2017Gravis Marketing0.72L(D+2.9)1352±2.7unknown
bias D+2.9pt3295d old+1
  • bias D+2.9pt
    Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt.
  • 3295d old
    Poll was fielded 3295 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
Sherrod Brown 42.0 · Josh Mandel 45.0pollarch
12/1/2016WPA Opinion Research ^1.00600±4.0unknown
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+1
  • commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 3447d old
    Poll was fielded 3447 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Sherrod Brown 39.0 · Josh Mandel 40.0pollarch
7/24/2016Public Policy Polling1.00(D+1.1)1334±2.7unknown
3577d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 3577d old
    Poll was fielded 3577 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Sherrod Brown 45.0 · Josh Mandel 36.0pollarch
4/27/2016Public Policy Polling1.00(D+1.1)799±3.2unknown
3665d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 3665d old
    Poll was fielded 3665 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Sherrod Brown 47.0 · Josh Mandel 33.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

5 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Likely D Oct 26 +9.0
FiveThirtyEight Safe D Nov 6 +18.0
Inside Elections Safe D Nov 1 +18.0
RealClearPolitics Lean D Nov 5 +3.5
Sabato's Crystal Ball Likely D Nov 5 +9.0

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 91 months ago (11/4/2018) last market quote rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/6/2026 Lean R via pvi