Races · Senate · 2018 · NY

Senate · class II · open seat

Kirsten Gillibrand vs Chele Chiavacci Farley

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Likely D — · 10 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2745d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 10 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely D

likely-d

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 10 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:10 of 10 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/3/2018	Research Co.	1.01	—(D+1.5)	450	±4.6	unknown	2745d oldbias D+1.5pt+1 2745d old Poll was fielded 2745 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+1.5pt Across 49 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.5pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 53 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Kirsten Gillibrand 60.0 · Chele Chiavacci Farley 32.0	poll arch
11/1/2018	Siena College	0.80	—(D+1.1)	641	±3.9	unknown	2747d oldbias D+1.1pt 2747d old Poll was fielded 2747 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+1.1pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Kirsten Gillibrand 58.0 · Chele Chiavacci Farley 35.0	poll arch
10/16/2018	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	852	±4.4	unknown	2763d oldtracks editorial consensus 2763d old Poll was fielded 2763 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Kirsten Gillibrand 58.0 · Chele Chiavacci Farley 33.0	poll arch
9/27/2018	Siena College	0.80	—(D+1.1)	701	±3.9	unknown	2782d oldbias D+1.1pt 2782d old Poll was fielded 2782 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+1.1pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Kirsten Gillibrand 61.0 · Chele Chiavacci Farley 29.0	poll arch
8/30/2018	Liberty Opinion Research (R-Reform Party)	1.00	—	2783	±1.9	unknown	no scored polls2810d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2810d old Poll was fielded 2810 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=2,783 Sample size of 2,783 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.9pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Kirsten Gillibrand 51.0 · Chele Chiavacci Farley 36.0	poll arch
7/16/2018	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	934	±4.1	unknown	2855d oldtracks editorial consensus 2855d old Poll was fielded 2855 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Kirsten Gillibrand 57.0 · Chele Chiavacci Farley 30.0	poll arch
6/7/2018	Siena College	0.80	—(D+1.1)	745	±3.7	unknown	2894d oldbias D+1.1pt 2894d old Poll was fielded 2894 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+1.1pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Kirsten Gillibrand 61.0 · Chele Chiavacci Farley 28.0	poll arch
5/1/2018	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1076	±3.7	unknown	2931d oldtracks editorial consensus 2931d old Poll was fielded 2931 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Kirsten Gillibrand 58.0 · Chele Chiavacci Farley 23.0	poll arch
4/12/2018	Siena College	0.80	—(D+1.1)	692	±4.3	unknown	2950d oldbias D+1.1pt 2950d old Poll was fielded 2950 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+1.1pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Kirsten Gillibrand 58.0 · Chele Chiavacci Farley 27.0	poll arch
3/16/2018	Siena College	0.80	—(D+1.1)	772	±4.0	unknown	2977d oldbias D+1.1pt 2977d old Poll was fielded 2977 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+1.1pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Kirsten Gillibrand 60.0 · Chele Chiavacci Farley 24.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

4 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Safe D	Oct 26	—	+18.0	—
Inside Elections	Safe D	Nov 1	—	+18.0	—
RealClearPolitics	Safe D	Jun 7	—	+18.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe D	Nov 5	—	+18.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 92 months ago (11/3/2018) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Likely D via pvi