Races · Senate · 2018 · FL

Senate · class II · open seat

Bill Nelson vs Rick Scott

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Tilt R — · 103 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2017d ago Rating 1d ago

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Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 103 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:103 of 103 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
10/31/2020	MWR Research/Consumer Energy Alliance	1.00	—	1005	—	unknown	advocacy-funded: Consumer Energy Allianceno scored polls+1 advocacy-funded: Consumer Energy Alliance This poll was commissioned by an advocacy group / coalition / Super PAC (Consumer Energy Alliance) — read with attention to their issue stance. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2017d old Poll was fielded 2017 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 41.0 · Rick Scott 43.0	poll arch
11/5/2018	The Trafalgar Group	0.89	R(R+3.4)	1484	±2.5	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedhistorical bias R+3.4pt+1 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 2743d old Poll was fielded 2743 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 47.0 · Rick Scott 49.0	poll arch
11/5/2018	HarrisX	1.00	—(R+0.4)	600	±4.0	unknown	2743d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2743d old Poll was fielded 2743 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 67 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias R+0.4pt Across 65 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is R+0.4pt — within ±1pt.	Bill Nelson 48.0 · Rick Scott 48.0	poll arch
11/4/2018	St. Pete Polls	1.44	L(D+2.2)	3088	±1.8	unknown	bias D+2.2pt2744d old+2 bias D+2.2pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.2pt. 2744d old Poll was fielded 2744 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=3,088 Sample size of 3,088 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.8pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 50.0 · Rick Scott 46.0	poll arch
11/4/2018	HarrisX	1.00	—(R+0.4)	600	±4.0	unknown	2744d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2744d old Poll was fielded 2744 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 67 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias R+0.4pt Across 65 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is R+0.4pt — within ±1pt.	Bill Nelson 45.0 · Rick Scott 49.0	poll arch
11/4/2018	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1142	±3.5	unknown	2744d oldtracks editorial consensus 2744d old Poll was fielded 2744 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 51.0 · Rick Scott 44.0	poll arch
11/3/2018	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	784	±3.7	unknown	2745d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2745d old Poll was fielded 2745 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Bill Nelson 50.0 · Rick Scott 45.0	poll arch
11/3/2018	HarrisX	1.00	—(R+0.4)	600	±4.0	unknown	2745d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2745d old Poll was fielded 2745 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 67 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias R+0.4pt Across 65 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is R+0.4pt — within ±1pt.	Bill Nelson 45.0 · Rick Scott 47.0	poll arch
11/3/2018	Research Co.	1.01	—(D+1.5)	450	±4.6	unknown	2745d oldbias D+1.5pt+1 2745d old Poll was fielded 2745 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+1.5pt Across 49 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.5pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 53 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 47.0 · Rick Scott 46.0	poll arch
11/2/2018	Change Research (D-Reason to Believe PAC)	1.00	—	1236	—	unknown	no scored polls2746d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2746d old Poll was fielded 2746 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 50.0 · Rick Scott 48.0	poll arch
11/2/2018	St. Pete Polls	1.44	L(D+2.2)	2733	±1.9	unknown	bias D+2.2pt2746d old+2 bias D+2.2pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.2pt. 2746d old Poll was fielded 2746 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=2,733 Sample size of 2,733 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.9pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 48.0 · Rick Scott 49.0	poll arch
11/2/2018	HarrisX	1.00	—(R+0.4)	600	±4.0	unknown	2746d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2746d old Poll was fielded 2746 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 67 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias R+0.4pt Across 65 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is R+0.4pt — within ±1pt.	Bill Nelson 46.0 · Rick Scott 48.0	poll arch
11/2/2018	Marist College	1.00	—(D+2.4)	595	±5.0	LV	bias D+2.4pt2746d old+2 bias D+2.4pt Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt. 2746d old Poll was fielded 2746 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 50.0 · Rick Scott 46.0	poll arch
11/2/2018	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	753	±3.6	unknown	bias D+2.9pt2746d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 2746d old Poll was fielded 2746 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bill Nelson 50.0 · Rick Scott 47.0	poll arch
11/1/2018	HarrisX	1.00	—(R+0.4)	600	±4.0	unknown	2747d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2747d old Poll was fielded 2747 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 67 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias R+0.4pt Across 65 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is R+0.4pt — within ±1pt.	Bill Nelson 45.0 · Rick Scott 50.0	poll arch
10/31/2018	St. Pete Polls	1.44	L(D+2.2)	2470	±2.0	unknown	bias D+2.2pt2748d old+2 bias D+2.2pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.2pt. 2748d old Poll was fielded 2748 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=2,470 Sample size of 2,470 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.0pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 49.0 · Rick Scott 47.0	poll arch
10/31/2018	Targoz Market Research	0.77	—(R+1.0)	558	—	unknown	2748d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+1 2748d old Poll was fielded 2748 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 26 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. bias R+1.0pt Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+1.0pt.	Bill Nelson 45.0 · Rick Scott 49.0	poll arch
10/31/2018	HarrisX	1.00	—(R+0.4)	600	±4.0	unknown	2748d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2748d old Poll was fielded 2748 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 67 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias R+0.4pt Across 65 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is R+0.4pt — within ±1pt.	Bill Nelson 45.0 · Rick Scott 48.0	poll arch
10/30/2018	The Trafalgar Group	0.89	R(R+3.4)	2543	±1.9	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedhistorical bias R+3.4pt+2 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 2749d old Poll was fielded 2749 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=2,543 Sample size of 2,543 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.9pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Bill Nelson 49.0 · Rick Scott 47.0	poll arch
10/30/2018	Vox Populi Polling	0.96	—(D+1.9)	696	±3.7	unknown	2749d oldtracks editorial consensus 2749d old Poll was fielded 2749 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 50.0 · Rick Scott 50.0	poll arch
10/30/2018	HarrisX	1.00	—(R+0.4)	1400	±2.6	unknown	2749d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2749d old Poll was fielded 2749 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 67 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias R+0.4pt Across 65 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is R+0.4pt — within ±1pt.	Bill Nelson 43.0 · Rick Scott 44.0	poll arch
10/29/2018	Cygnal	1.04	R(D+1.8)	495	±4.4	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned2750d old+1 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. 2750d old Poll was fielded 2750 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 72 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 50.0 · Rick Scott 48.0	poll arch
10/29/2018	CNN/SSRS	1.00	—(D+4.4)	781	±4.3	LV	historical bias D+4.4pt2750d old+1 historical bias D+4.4pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.4pt — a measurable house effect. 2750d old Poll was fielded 2750 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Bill Nelson 49.0 · Rick Scott 47.0	poll arch
10/28/2018	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	2751d oldbias D+0.1pt+1 2751d old Poll was fielded 2751 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 45.0 · Rick Scott 43.0	poll arch
10/27/2018	NYT Upshot/Siena College	0.87	—(D+1.7)	737	±4.0	unknown	3 scored polls2752d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 2752d old Poll was fielded 2752 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: Siena College Commissioned by Siena College, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Bill Nelson 48.0 · Rick Scott 44.0	poll arch
10/26/2018	University of North Florida	0.81	L(D+5.0)	1051	±3.0	unknown	2753d oldD+8.6pt vs editors 2753d old Poll was fielded 2753 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+8.6pt vs editors Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 8.6pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 47.0 · Rick Scott 46.0	poll arch
10/26/2018	YouGov	1.00	—(D+3.7)	991	±4.0	unknown	historical bias D+3.7pt2753d old historical bias D+3.7pt Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. 2753d old Poll was fielded 2753 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 46.0 · Rick Scott 46.0	poll arch
10/25/2018	Ipsos	1.00	—(R+1.9)	1069	±3.4	unknown	2754d oldtracks editorial consensus 2754d old Poll was fielded 2754 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 49.0 · Rick Scott 44.0	poll arch
10/23/2018	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	773	±3.5	unknown	bias D+2.9pt2756d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 2756d old Poll was fielded 2756 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bill Nelson 49.0 · Rick Scott 45.0	poll arch
10/23/2018	Strategic Research Associates	0.73	—(D+3.7)	800	±3.5	unknown	3 scored polls2756d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 2756d old Poll was fielded 2756 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 46.0 · Rick Scott 45.0	poll arch
10/22/2018	Saint Leo University	1.00	—(D+8.5)	698	±3.5	unknown	3 scored polls2757d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 2757d old Poll was fielded 2757 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 47.0 · Rick Scott 38.0	poll arch
10/21/2018	St. Pete Polls	1.44	L(D+2.2)	1575	±2.5	unknown	bias D+2.2pt2758d old+2 bias D+2.2pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.2pt. 2758d old Poll was fielded 2758 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,575 Sample size of 1,575 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 48.0 · Rick Scott 49.0	poll arch
10/21/2018	Florida Atlantic University	1.34	—(D+2.4)	704	±3.6	unknown	3 scored polls2758d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 2758d old Poll was fielded 2758 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 41.0 · Rick Scott 42.0	poll arch
10/21/2018	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	665	±5.0	unknown	2758d oldtracks editorial consensus 2758d old Poll was fielded 2758 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 49.0 · Rick Scott 41.0	poll arch
10/21/2018	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1161	±3.5	unknown	2758d oldtracks editorial consensus 2758d old Poll was fielded 2758 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 52.0 · Rick Scott 46.0	poll arch
10/20/2018	Schroth, Eldon and Associates	1.00	L	600	±4.0	unknown	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2759d old Poll was fielded 2759 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 45.0 · Rick Scott 47.0	poll arch
10/20/2018	CNN/SSRS	1.00	—(D+4.4)	759	±4.2	LV	historical bias D+4.4pt2759d old+1 historical bias D+4.4pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.4pt — a measurable house effect. 2759d old Poll was fielded 2759 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Bill Nelson 50.0 · Rick Scott 45.0	poll arch
10/18/2018	OnMessage Inc. (R-Scott)	1.00	—	2200	±2.1	unknown	no scored polls2761d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2761d old Poll was fielded 2761 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=2,200 Sample size of 2,200 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.1pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Bill Nelson 46.0 · Rick Scott 51.0	poll arch
10/16/2018	St. Pete Polls	1.44	L(D+2.2)	1974	±2.2	unknown	bias D+2.2pt2763d old+2 bias D+2.2pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.2pt. 2763d old Poll was fielded 2763 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,974 Sample size of 1,974 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 47.0 · Rick Scott 49.0	poll arch
10/5/2018	Florida Southern College	1.00	—	476	±4.5	unknown	no scored polls2774d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2774d old Poll was fielded 2774 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 44.0 · Rick Scott 46.0	poll arch
10/2/2018	Kaiser Family Foundation/SSRS	1.00	—	522	±6.0	unknown	no scored polls2777d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2777d old Poll was fielded 2777 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 48.0 · Rick Scott 45.0	poll arch
9/30/2018	St. Pete Polls	1.44	L(D+2.2)	2313	±2.0	unknown	bias D+2.2pt2779d old+2 bias D+2.2pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.2pt. 2779d old Poll was fielded 2779 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=2,313 Sample size of 2,313 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.0pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 47.0 · Rick Scott 47.0	poll arch
9/30/2018	Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)	1.00	—	779	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls2779d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2779d old Poll was fielded 2779 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 48.0 · Rick Scott 44.0	poll arch
9/30/2018	Strategic Research Associates	0.73	—(D+3.7)	800	±3.5	unknown	3 scored polls2779d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 2779d old Poll was fielded 2779 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 45.0 · Rick Scott 44.0	poll arch
9/27/2018	Mason-Dixon	0.56	R(R+2.4)	815	±3.5	unknown	bias R+2.4pt2782d old+1 bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. 2782d old Poll was fielded 2782 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 47.0 · Rick Scott 46.0	poll arch
9/24/2018	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	888	±4.0	unknown	2785d oldtracks editorial consensus 2785d old Poll was fielded 2785 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 53.0 · Rick Scott 46.0	poll arch
9/24/2018	Cherry Communications	0.63	—(D+3.8)	622	±4.4	unknown	3 scored polls2785d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 2785d old Poll was fielded 2785 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 7 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bill Nelson 48.0 · Rick Scott 46.0	poll arch
9/20/2018	Marist College	1.00	—(D+2.4)	600	±4.7	LV	bias D+2.4pt2789d old+2 bias D+2.4pt Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt. 2789d old Poll was fielded 2789 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 48.0 · Rick Scott 45.0	poll arch
9/19/2018	University of North Florida	0.81	L(D+5.0)	603	—	unknown	2790d oldD+8.6pt vs editors 2790d old Poll was fielded 2790 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+8.6pt vs editors Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 8.6pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 45.0 · Rick Scott 45.0	poll arch
9/16/2018	Florida Atlantic University	1.34	—(D+2.4)	850	±3.3	unknown	3 scored polls2793d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 2793d old Poll was fielded 2793 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 41.0 · Rick Scott 42.0	poll arch
9/12/2018	Ipsos	1.00	—(R+1.9)	1000	±4.0	unknown	2797d oldtracks editorial consensus 2797d old Poll was fielded 2797 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 45.0 · Rick Scott 46.0	poll arch
9/11/2018	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	800	±3.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt2798d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 2798d old Poll was fielded 2798 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 45.0 · Rick Scott 44.0	poll arch
9/9/2018	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	634	±5.3	unknown	2800d oldtracks editorial consensus 2800d old Poll was fielded 2800 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 44.0 · Rick Scott 46.0	poll arch
9/3/2018	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	785	±4.3	unknown	2806d oldtracks editorial consensus 2806d old Poll was fielded 2806 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 49.0 · Rick Scott 49.0	poll arch
8/30/2018	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	1225	±2.8	unknown	bias D+2.9pt2810d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 2810d old Poll was fielded 2810 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bill Nelson 47.0 · Rick Scott 47.0	poll arch
8/30/2018	Public Policy Polling (D-EDGE Comms.)	1.00	—	743	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls2810d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2810d old Poll was fielded 2810 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 46.0 · Rick Scott 45.0	poll arch
8/30/2018	St. Pete Polls	1.44	L(D+2.2)	1755	±2.3	unknown	bias D+2.2pt2810d old+2 bias D+2.2pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.2pt. 2810d old Poll was fielded 2810 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,755 Sample size of 1,755 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 47.0 · Rick Scott 47.0	poll arch
8/20/2018	Florida Atlantic University	1.34	—(D+2.4)	800	±3.4	unknown	3 scored polls2820d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 2820d old Poll was fielded 2820 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 39.0 · Rick Scott 45.0	poll arch
8/16/2018	Saint Leo University	1.00	—(D+8.5)	500	±4.5	unknown	3 scored polls2824d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 2824d old Poll was fielded 2824 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 36.0 · Rick Scott 40.0	poll arch
7/25/2018	Mason-Dixon	0.56	R(R+2.4)	625	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.4pt2846d old+1 bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. 2846d old Poll was fielded 2846 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 44.0 · Rick Scott 47.0	poll arch
7/21/2018	Florida Atlantic University	1.34	—(D+2.4)	800	±3.4	unknown	3 scored polls2850d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 2850d old Poll was fielded 2850 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 40.0 · Rick Scott 44.0	poll arch
7/14/2018	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	1840	±2.3	unknown	bias D+2.9pt2857d old+2 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 2857d old Poll was fielded 2857 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. n=1,840 Sample size of 1,840 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Bill Nelson 47.0 · Rick Scott 43.0	poll arch
7/2/2018	SurveyMonkey/Axios	1.00	—	1080	±5.0	unknown	no scored polls2869d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2869d old Poll was fielded 2869 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: Axios Commissioned by Axios, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Bill Nelson 46.0 · Rick Scott 49.0	poll arch
6/22/2018	YouGov	1.00	—(D+3.7)	839	—	LV	historical bias D+3.7pt2879d old+1 historical bias D+3.7pt Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. 2879d old Poll was fielded 2879 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Bill Nelson 41.0 · Rick Scott 46.0	poll arch
6/21/2018	Marist College	1.00	—(D+2.4)	947	±3.9	unknown	bias D+2.4pt2880d old+1 bias D+2.4pt Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt. 2880d old Poll was fielded 2880 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 49.0 · Rick Scott 45.0	poll arch
6/19/2018	Public Policy Polling (D-EDGE Comms.)	1.00	—	1308	±3.2	unknown	no scored polls2882d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2882d old Poll was fielded 2882 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 48.0 · Rick Scott 46.0	poll arch
6/15/2018	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	1251	±2.8	unknown	bias D+2.9pt2886d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 2886d old Poll was fielded 2886 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bill Nelson 50.0 · Rick Scott 40.0	poll arch
6/4/2018	Cherry Communications	0.63	—(D+3.8)	605	±4.0	unknown	3 scored polls2897d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 2897d old Poll was fielded 2897 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 7 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bill Nelson 45.0 · Rick Scott 48.0	poll arch
5/31/2018	Saint Leo University	1.00	—(D+8.5)	506	±4.5	unknown	3 scored polls2901d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 2901d old Poll was fielded 2901 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 34.0 · Rick Scott 40.0	poll arch
5/30/2018	Morning Consult	1.00	—(D+5.0)	1199	±3.0	unknown	historical bias D+5.0pt2902d old+1 historical bias D+5.0pt Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. 2902d old Poll was fielded 2902 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 39.0 · Rick Scott 40.0	poll arch
5/7/2018	Florida Atlantic University	1.34	—(D+2.4)	728	—	LV	3 scored polls2925d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 2925d old Poll was fielded 2925 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Bill Nelson 45.0 · Rick Scott 45.0	poll arch
4/11/2018	Public Policy Polling (D-Levine)	1.00	—	661	±3.9	unknown	no scored polls2951d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2951d old Poll was fielded 2951 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 50.0 · Rick Scott 44.0	poll arch
3/19/2018	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	2212	±2.1	unknown	bias D+2.9pt2974d old+2 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 2974d old Poll was fielded 2974 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. n=2,212 Sample size of 2,212 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.1pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Bill Nelson 44.0 · Rick Scott 40.0	poll arch
3/13/2018	McLaughlin & Associates (R-NR PAC)	1.00	—	800	±3.4	unknown	no scored polls2980d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2980d old Poll was fielded 2980 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 46.0 · Rick Scott 47.0	poll arch
3/7/2018	Clearview Research	1.00	—	750	±3.6	unknown	no scored polls2986d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2986d old Poll was fielded 2986 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 41.0 · Rick Scott 43.0	poll arch
3/5/2018	SurveyMonkey/Axios	1.00	—	1806	±5.0	unknown	no scored polls2988d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2988d old Poll was fielded 2988 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: Axios Commissioned by Axios, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. n=1,806 Sample size of 1,806 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Bill Nelson 53.0 · Rick Scott 43.0	poll arch
2/26/2018	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1156	±3.6	unknown	2995d oldtracks editorial consensus 2995d old Poll was fielded 2995 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 46.0 · Rick Scott 42.0	poll arch
2/25/2018	Florida Atlantic University	1.34	—(D+2.4)	800	±3.6	unknown	3 scored polls2996d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 2996d old Poll was fielded 2996 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 40.0 · Rick Scott 38.0	poll arch
2/24/2018	Saint Leo University	1.00	—(D+8.5)	500	±4.5	unknown	3 scored polls2997d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 2997d old Poll was fielded 2997 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 35.0 · Rick Scott 42.0	poll arch
2/18/2018	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	1978	±2.2	unknown	bias D+2.9pt3003d old+2 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 3003d old Poll was fielded 3003 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. n=1,978 Sample size of 1,978 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Bill Nelson 44.0 · Rick Scott 40.0	poll arch
2/4/2018	Florida Atlantic University	1.34	—(D+2.4)	750	±3.7	unknown	3 scored polls3017d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3017d old Poll was fielded 3017 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 34.0 · Rick Scott 44.0	poll arch
2/4/2018	University of North Florida	0.81	L(D+5.0)	429	±4.7	unknown	3017d oldD+8.6pt vs editors 3017d old Poll was fielded 3017 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+8.6pt vs editors Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 8.6pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 48.0 · Rick Scott 42.0	poll arch
2/1/2018	Mason-Dixon	0.56	R(R+2.4)	625	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.4pt3020d old+1 bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. 3020d old Poll was fielded 3020 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 45.0 · Rick Scott 44.0	poll arch
1/10/2018	Dixie Strategies	1.00	—	785	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls3042d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3042d old Poll was fielded 3042 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 38.0 · Rick Scott 35.0	poll arch
12/24/2017	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	5778	±1.3	unknown	bias D+2.9pt3059d old+2 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 3059d old Poll was fielded 3059 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. n=5,778 Sample size of 5,778 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Bill Nelson 44.0 · Rick Scott 39.0	poll arch
11/24/2017	Saint Leo University	1.00	—(D+8.5)	500	±4.5	unknown	3 scored polls3089d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3089d old Poll was fielded 3089 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 32.0 · Rick Scott 42.0	poll arch
10/19/2017	Mason-Dixon	0.56	R(R+2.4)	625	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.4pt3125d old+1 bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. 3125d old Poll was fielded 3125 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 44.0 · Rick Scott 44.0	poll arch
10/17/2017	University of North Florida	0.81	L(D+5.0)	706	±3.4	unknown	3127d oldD+8.6pt vs editors 3127d old Poll was fielded 3127 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+8.6pt vs editors Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 8.6pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 37.0 · Rick Scott 36.0	poll arch
9/24/2017	Cherry Communications	0.63	—(D+3.8)	615	±4.0	unknown	3 scored polls3150d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3150d old Poll was fielded 3150 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 7 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bill Nelson 45.0 · Rick Scott 47.0	poll arch
9/16/2017	Saint Leo University	1.00	—(D+8.5)	500	±4.5	unknown	3 scored polls3158d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3158d old Poll was fielded 3158 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 33.0 · Rick Scott 35.0	poll arch
8/26/2017	Florida Atlantic University	1.34	—(D+2.4)	800	±4.0	unknown	3 scored polls3179d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3179d old Poll was fielded 3179 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 42.0 · Rick Scott 40.0	poll arch
4/10/2017	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	1243	±2.8	unknown	bias D+2.9pt3317d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 3317d old Poll was fielded 3317 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bill Nelson 56.0 · Rick Scott 28.0	poll arch
3/29/2017	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	1453	±2.6	unknown	bias D+2.9pt3329d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 3329d old Poll was fielded 3329 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bill Nelson 52.0 · Rick Scott 37.0	poll arch
3/14/2017	Cherry Communications	0.63	—(D+3.8)	600	±4.0	unknown	3 scored polls3344d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3344d old Poll was fielded 3344 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 7 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bill Nelson 48.0 · Rick Scott 42.0	poll arch
3/11/2017	Saint Leo University	1.00	—(D+8.5)	507	±4.5	unknown	3 scored polls3347d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3347d old Poll was fielded 3347 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 39.0 · Rick Scott 34.0	poll arch
3/5/2017	Public Opinion Strategies (R-FHA)	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls3353d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3353d old Poll was fielded 3353 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 46.0 · Rick Scott 44.0	poll arch
2/28/2017	Mason-Dixon	0.56	R(R+2.4)	625	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.4pt3358d old+1 bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. 3358d old Poll was fielded 3358 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 46.0 · Rick Scott 41.0	poll arch
2/26/2017	University of North Florida	0.81	L(D+5.0)	957	±3.1	unknown	3360d oldD+8.6pt vs editors 3360d old Poll was fielded 3360 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+8.6pt vs editors Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 8.6pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 44.0 · Rick Scott 38.0	poll arch
11/25/2016	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	3250	±2.4	unknown	bias D+2.9pt3453d old+2 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 3453d old Poll was fielded 3453 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. n=3,250 Sample size of 3,250 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.7pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Bill Nelson 51.0 · Rick Scott 38.0	poll arch
11/25/2016	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	3250	±2.4	unknown	bias D+2.9pt3453d old+2 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 3453d old Poll was fielded 3453 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. n=3,250 Sample size of 3,250 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.7pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Bill Nelson 50.0 · Pam Bondi 35.0	poll arch
9/6/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	744	±3.6	unknown	3533d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3533d old Poll was fielded 3533 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Nelson 45.0 · Rick Scott 41.0	poll arch
9/13/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	814	±3.4	unknown	3892d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3892d old Poll was fielded 3892 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Nelson 46.0 · Rick Scott 42.0	poll arch
3/22/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	923	±3.2	unknown	4067d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4067d old Poll was fielded 4067 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Nelson 47.0 · Rick Scott 43.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

5 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Tossup	Oct 26	—	0.0	—
FiveThirtyEight	Lean D	Nov 5	—	+3.5	—
Inside Elections	Tilt D	Nov 1	—	+1.3	—
RealClearPolitics	Tossup	Nov 5	—	0.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean D	Nov 5	—	+3.5	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 67 months ago (10/31/2020) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Tilt R via pvi