Races · Senate · 2020 · Arizona

Senate · open seat

Mark Kelly vs Martha McSally

← Arkansas Senate Colorado Senate →

Likely DD +6.0 forecast· 119 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
84% Kelly (D)
16% McSally (R)
Win probability
Mark Kelly84% (D)
Martha McSally16% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +6.0
80% CIR+6.0 → D+18.0
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +6.0 · 80% CI R+6.0 → D+18.0
Actual result D+2.4 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tilt R · model 84% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+2) suggests Tilt R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+6.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+6.0 (10th pctile) to D+18.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 84% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +6.0

80% CI: R +6.0 → D +18.0 · win prob 84%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · high

Polls used	119
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+2.4
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Polling average

POLL DOTSCI BAND
30354045505560KELLY 48.9MCSALLY 44.9MCCARTHY 45.8JUN '20AUG '20NOV '20
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 119 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag

Date	Pollster · trust signals	n · pop	Lean	Bias · track	vs raters	D · R
Nov 1, 20	Ipsos/Reuters+1For · Ipsos/Reuters	610 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.010 tracked	+0.7aligned	53 · 44
Oct 31, 20	Change Research/CNBCFor · Change Research	409 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.16 tracked	+1.1aligned	51 · 47
Oct 31, 20	NBC News/Marist+2For · NBC News	717 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.111 tracked	-0.8aligned	52 · 46
Oct 31, 20	Swayable+2For · Swayable	333 · LV	D-LEAN	D +7.817 tracked	+2.5d lean	55 · 45
Oct 31, 20	Data for Progress+1	1,195 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.151 tracked	+0.8aligned	54 · 46
Oct 30, 20	Emerson College+1	732 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	50 · 48
Oct 30, 20	Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult	1,059 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.230 tracked	+1.8aligned	48 · 44
Oct 29, 20	Data Orbital+1For · Data Orbital	550 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.210 tracked	-0.3aligned	47 · 46
Oct 29, 20	Siena College/NYT Upshot	1,253 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.09 tracked	0.0aligned	50 · 43
Oct 29, 20	Grand Canyon Battleground PollFor · Google Docs	910 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	46 · 43
Oct 29, 20	CNN/SSRS+1For · CNN	892 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.417 tracked	+3.0d lean	51 · 45
Oct 28, 20	Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen ReportsFor · Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports	800 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +2.24 tracked	—	48 · 43
Oct 27, 20	Gravis Marketing+1For · any campaign committee or other organization and was paid	704 · LV	D-LEAN	D +2.933 tracked	+0.1aligned	50 · 45
Oct 26, 20	Ipsos/Reutuers	714 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	51 · 44
Oct 25, 20	Swayable+2For · Swayable	286 · LV	D-LEAN	D +7.817 tracked	+2.5d lean	56 · 44
Oct 24, 20	Justice Collaborative ProjectFor · RATU89	874 · LV	D-LEAN	—	—	50 · 40
Oct 24, 20	OH Predictive Insights	716 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +1.68 tracked	+0.3aligned	50 · 45
Oct 24, 20	Univision/University of Houston/Latino Decisions/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research	725 · RV	NEUTRAL	—	—	51 · 39
Oct 23, 20	Patinkin Research Strategies	729 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.43 tracked	—	53 · 46
Oct 23, 20	Y2 Analytics →+1For · The Salt Lake Tribune	700 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	51 · 47
Oct 21, 20	Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.	500 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	47 · 50
Oct 20, 20	Ipsos/Reuters+1For · Ipsos/Reuters	658 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.010 tracked	+0.7aligned	51 · 43
Oct 19, 20	Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult	1,066 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.230 tracked	+1.8aligned	48 · 44
Oct 18, 20	Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen ReportsFor · Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports	800 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +2.24 tracked	—	46 · 44
Oct 18, 20	Change Research/CNBC	232 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.16 tracked	+1.1aligned	54 · 43
Oct 18, 20	RMG Research	800 · LV	D-LEAN	D +6.68 tracked	+2.6d lean	49 · 39
Oct 17, 20	Data Orbital+1For · Data Orbital	550 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.210 tracked	-0.3aligned	48 · 42
Oct 15, 20	YouGov/CBS+1For · CBS News	1,074 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	52 · 41
Oct 13, 20	Ipsos/Reuters+1For · Ipsos/Reuters	667 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.010 tracked	+0.7aligned	52 · 41
Oct 12, 20	Monmouth University+1For · Monmouth University	502 · RV	D-LEAN	D +4.520 tracked	+0.7aligned	52 · 42
Oct 10, 20	Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult	1,144 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.230 tracked	+1.8aligned	49 · 41
Oct 8, 20	Trafalgar Group+1	1,045 · LV	R-LEAN	R +2.16 tracked	-4.1r lean	47 · 45
Oct 7, 20	OH Predictive Insights	608 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +1.68 tracked	+0.3aligned	50 · 45
Oct 6, 20	Ipsos/Reuters+1For · Ipsos/Reuters	663 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.010 tracked	+0.7aligned	51 · 41
Oct 5, 20	Latino Decisions	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	47 · 42
Oct 4, 20	Basswood ResearchFor · AAF	800 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	47 · 49
Oct 4, 20	Data Orbital+1For · Data Orbital	550 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.210 tracked	-0.3aligned	49 · 44
Oct 4, 20	HighGround, Inc.	400 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+0.6aligned	50 · 44
Oct 3, 20	Change Research/CNBCFor · Change Research	296 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.16 tracked	+1.1aligned	51 · 43
Oct 2, 20	Siena College/NYT Upshot	655 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.09 tracked	0.0aligned	50 · 39
Oct 2, 20	Patinkin Research Strategies/Arizona Research Consortium	604 · LV	D-LEAN	—	—	50 · 45
Oct 1, 20	Targoz Market ResearchFor · PollSmart MR	1,045 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +1.712 tracked	+4.3noisy	51 · 41
Sep 30, 20	Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult	1,048 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.230 tracked	+1.8aligned	51 · 38
Sep 29, 20	Suffolk University+1For · Suffolk University	500 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.221 tracked	+0.8aligned	49 · 40
Sep 27, 20	Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.	500 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	48 · 45
Sep 27, 20	Data for Progress+1	808 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.151 tracked	+0.8aligned	51 · 42
Sep 27, 20	Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult	1,000 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.230 tracked	+1.8aligned	53 · 36
Sep 21, 20	Data for Progress+1	481 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.151 tracked	+0.8aligned	47 · 38
Sep 19, 20	Change Research/CNBCFor · Change Research	262 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.16 tracked	+1.1aligned	51 · 43
Sep 19, 20	ABC News/Washington Post	579 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	49 · 48
Sep 19, 20	Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult	907 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.230 tracked	+1.8aligned	49 · 40
Sep 18, 20	Hart Research Associates	400 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	55 · 43
Sep 16, 20	Ipsos/Reuters+1For · Ipsos/Reuters	565 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.010 tracked	+0.7aligned	50 · 41
Sep 16, 20	Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult	900 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.230 tracked	+1.8aligned	48 · 41
Sep 15, 20	Fabrizio, Lee & Associates+2For · Politico	800 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+3.9decoupled	48 · 46
Sep 15, 20	Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies	855 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.35 tracked	-0.1aligned	53 · 35
Sep 14, 20	Monmouth University+1For · Monmouth University	420 · RV	D-LEAN	D +4.520 tracked	+0.7aligned	50 · 44
Sep 14, 20	Siena College/NYT Upshot	653 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.09 tracked	0.0aligned	50 · 42
Sep 13, 20	Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult	1,000 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.230 tracked	+1.8aligned	50 · 38
Sep 12, 20	Patinkin Research Strategies/Arizona Research Consortium	679 · LV	D-LEAN	—	—	50 · 45
Sep 12, 20	Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political ReportFor · KFF	1,298 · RV	NEUTRAL	—	—	44 · 36
Sep 10, 20	Gravis Marketing+1For · Gravis Marketing	684 · LV	D-LEAN	D +2.933 tracked	+0.1aligned	48 · 43
Sep 10, 20	YouGov/CBS	1,106 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	49 · 42
Sep 9, 20	OH Predictive Insights	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +1.68 tracked	+0.3aligned	52 · 42
Sep 7, 20	Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group+1For · AARP	1,600 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	48 · 45
Sep 5, 20	Change Research/CNBCFor · Change Research/CNBC	470 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.16 tracked	+1.1aligned	51 · 45
Sep 3, 20	Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies	830 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.35 tracked	-0.1aligned	53 · 38
Sep 3, 20	Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult	1,000 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.230 tracked	+1.8aligned	50 · 39
Aug 31, 20	Fox NewsFor · Fox News	772 · LV	D-LEAN	D +2.121 tracked	+2.7d lean	56 · 39
Aug 30, 20	Basswood ResearchFor · AAF	800 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	48 · 48
Aug 24, 20	Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult	1,000 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.230 tracked	+1.8aligned	53 · 35
Aug 17, 20	Redfield and Wilton Strategies	856 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	53 · 34
Aug 14, 20	Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult	1,000 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.230 tracked	+1.8aligned	46 · 43
Aug 9, 20	Emerson College+1	661 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	52 · 41
Aug 8, 20	Change Research/CNBC	428 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.16 tracked	+1.1aligned	49 · 43
Aug 4, 20	Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult	1,000 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.230 tracked	+1.8aligned	49 · 38
Aug 3, 20	OH Predictive Insights	603 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +1.68 tracked	+0.3aligned	48 · 43
Aug 3, 20	OnMessage Inc.+1	400 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.25 tracked	-4.1r lean	48 · 48
Aug 1, 20	Data for Progress+1	1,215 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.151 tracked	+0.8aligned	50 · 40
Jul 25, 20	Change Research/CNBC	365 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.16 tracked	+1.1aligned	47 · 45
Jul 25, 20	Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult	908 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.230 tracked	+1.8aligned	52 · 36
Jul 23, 20	CNN/SSRS+1For · CNN	873 · RV	D-LEAN	D +4.417 tracked	+3.0d lean	50 · 43
Jul 22, 20	Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies	858 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.35 tracked	-0.1aligned	53 · 35
Jul 22, 20	Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult	1,000 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.230 tracked	+1.8aligned	49 · 39
Jul 21, 20	Public Policy Polling	816 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	51 · 42
Jul 21, 20	NBC News/Marist+1For · NBC News/Marist	826 · RV	D-LEAN	D +5.111 tracked	-0.8aligned	53 · 41
Jul 15, 20	Spry Strategies	700 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	48 · 41
Jul 11, 20	Change Research/CNBCFor · Change Research	345 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.16 tracked	+1.1aligned	52 · 45
Jul 9, 20	CBS News/YouGov+1	1,087 · LV	D-LEAN	D +3.416 tracked	+1.4aligned	46 · 42
Jul 6, 20	OH Predictive Insights	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +1.68 tracked	+0.3aligned	52 · 43
Jun 28, 20	Data Orbital+1	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.210 tracked	-0.3aligned	50 · 43
Jun 27, 20	Change Research/CNBCFor · Change Research	311 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.16 tracked	+1.1aligned	53 · 44
Jun 26, 20	Gravis Marketing+1	527 · LV	D-LEAN	D +2.933 tracked	+0.1aligned	42 · 46
Jun 23, 20	Global Strategy Group+1For · Politico	800 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+2.6d lean	49 · 42
Jun 22, 20	Change Research+1	946 · LV	D-LEAN	D +3.718 tracked	+5.7noisy	50 · 42
Jun 22, 20	Change Research+1	946 · LV	D-LEAN	D +3.718 tracked	+5.7noisy	50 · 44
Jun 16, 20	Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies	865 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.35 tracked	-0.1aligned	49 · 34
Jun 15, 20	NYT Upshot/Siena College	650 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +1.73 tracked	-2.4r lean	47 · 38
Jun 14, 20	Civiqs/Daily KosFor · Civiqs/Daily Kos	1,368 · RV	D-LEAN	D +4.05 tracked	-0.9aligned	51 · 42
Jun 1, 20	Fox NewsFor · Fox News	1,002 · RV	D-LEAN	D +2.121 tracked	+2.7d lean	50 · 37
May 21, 20	HighGround Public Affairs	400 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.93 tracked	—	51 · 41
May 10, 20	OH Predictive InsightsFor · The Arizona Republic	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +1.68 tracked	+0.3aligned	51 · 38
Apr 7, 20	OH Predictive Insights	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +1.68 tracked	+0.3aligned	51 · 42
Mar 14, 20	NBC News/Marist+2For · NBC News/Marist	2,523 · RV	D-LEAN	D +5.111 tracked	-0.8aligned	48 · 45
Mar 13, 20	Monmouth University+1For · Monmouth University	847 · RV	D-LEAN	D +4.520 tracked	+0.7aligned	50 · 44
Mar 10, 20	Univision/Arizona State University	1,036 · RV	NEUTRAL	—	—	48 · 36
Mar 3, 20	OH Predictive InsightsFor · OH Predictive Insights – Phoenix AZ	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +1.68 tracked	+0.3aligned	49 · 42
Mar 2, 20	Public Policy PollingFor · Public Policy Polling	666 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	47 · 42
Feb 8, 20	HighGround Public Affairs	400 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.93 tracked	—	46 · 39
Jan 23, 20	Fabrizio, Lee & Associates+2For · Politico	1,000 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+3.9decoupled	45 · 47
Jan 3, 20	Public Policy PollingFor · Public Policy Polling	760 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	46 · 42
Dec 3, 19	OH Predictive Insights	628 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +1.68 tracked	+0.3aligned	47 · 44
Oct 27, 19	Emerson College+1	904 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	46 · 45
Sep 27, 19	Change Research+1For · Google Docs	856 · RV	D-LEAN	D +3.718 tracked	+5.7noisy	47 · 45
Sep 11, 19	Bendixen & Amandi International+1For · Politico	520 · RV	D-LEAN	—	—	42 · 42
Aug 13, 19	OH Predictive Insights	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +1.68 tracked	+0.3aligned	46 · 41
Jul 30, 19	Fabrizio Ward/AARP	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	44 · 45
May 1, 19	OH Predictive Insights	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +1.68 tracked	+0.3aligned	44 · 45
Feb 12, 19	OH Predictive Insights	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +1.68 tracked	+0.3aligned	44 · 46

· 119 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet

DMark Kelly0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RMartha McSally0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RDaniel McCarthy0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-12-18

Martha McSallyS8AZ00221 ↗

Receipts

$73.6M

Disburse

$74.4M

Cash on hand

$115.3K

Debts

$585.8K

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Mark KellyS0AZ00350 ↗

Receipts

$101.1M

Disburse

$99.7M

Cash on hand

$1.4M

Debts

Top industries

Education$276.7K

Internet$259.4K

Computers / electronics$166.1K

Top contributors

GOOGLE$181.5K

UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA$148.4K

FACEBOOK$77.8K

ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY$70.2K

MICROSOFT$65.6K

Daniel McCarthyOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$607.7K

Disburse

$607.7K

Cash on hand

$79.74

Debts

$511.6K

Top industries

Education$1.9K

Top contributors

PALMER DEVELOPMENT$2.0K

BLUE CROSS BLUE SHIELD OF AZ$1.5K

MITO RED LIGHT$1.0K

LEFT TO RIGHT$1.0K

SECURITY NATIONAL MORTGAGE$1.0K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$5.8M

D side

$4.4M · 76%

R side

$1.4M · 24%

Top spender

PRIORITIES USA ACTION

For / against split

For Kelly $1.6M

Against McSally $2.8M

For McSally $1.4M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
PRIORITIES USA ACTION	D	$2.5M	43%	against Martha McSally
MOVEON.ORG POLITICAL ACTION	D	$634.9K	11%	against Martha McSally
NRA VICTORY FUND, INC.	R	$614.7K	11%	for Martha McSally
WORKER POWER PAC	D	$545.9K	9%	for Mark Kelly
NRSC	R	$367.7K	6%	for Martha McSally
SMP	D	$341.0K	6%	against Martha McSally
PROGRESSNOW AZ - FEDERAL	D	$114.3K	2%	for Mark Kelly
END CITIZENS UNITED	D	$37.4K	1%	for Mark Kelly

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Likely D2

Lean D2

Tilt D1

The Cook Political Report

Lean D

Oct 28

DDHQ

Likely D

Nov 2

538

Likely D

Nov 1

Inside Elections

Tilt D

Oct 27

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean D

Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jun 22, 2026Likely Dmodel

May 11, 2026Lean Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified119 / 119deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-12-18

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks