Races · Governor · 2018 · TN

Governor · open seat

Karl Dean vs Bill Lee

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Likely R — · 34 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2748d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 34 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely R

likely-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 34 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:34 of 34 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
10/31/2018	Targoz Market Research	0.77	—(R+1.0)	480	—	unknown	2748d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+1 2748d old Poll was fielded 2748 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 26 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. bias R+1.0pt Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+1.0pt.	Bill Lee 53.0 · Karl Dean 44.0	poll arch
10/30/2018	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	621	±4.0	unknown	2749d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2749d old Poll was fielded 2749 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Bill Lee 54.0 · Karl Dean 41.0	poll arch
10/30/2018	Fox News	1.00	—(D+2.6)	718	±3.5	LV	bias D+2.6pt2749d old+1 bias D+2.6pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt. 2749d old Poll was fielded 2749 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Bill Lee 54.0 · Karl Dean 37.0	poll arch
10/29/2018	Vox Populi Polling	0.96	—(D+1.9)	780	±3.5	unknown	2750d oldtracks editorial consensus 2750d old Poll was fielded 2750 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Lee 56.0 · Karl Dean 44.0	poll arch
10/29/2018	CNN/SSRS	1.00	—(D+4.4)	764	±4.3	LV	historical bias D+4.4pt2750d old+1 historical bias D+4.4pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.4pt — a measurable house effect. 2750d old Poll was fielded 2750 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Bill Lee 52.0 · Karl Dean 42.0	poll arch
10/29/2018	East Tennessee State University	1.00	—	495	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls2750d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2750d old Poll was fielded 2750 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Lee 48.0 · Karl Dean 36.0	poll arch
10/27/2018	Cygnal	1.04	R(D+1.8)	497	±4.4	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned2752d old+1 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. 2752d old Poll was fielded 2752 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 72 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Lee 59.0 · Karl Dean 36.0	poll arch
10/27/2018	Marist College	1.00	—(D+2.4)	471	±5.7	LV	bias D+2.4pt2752d old+2 bias D+2.4pt Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt. 2752d old Poll was fielded 2752 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Lee 57.0 · Karl Dean 40.0	poll arch
10/13/2018	Vanderbilt University/SSRS	1.00	—	800	±4.9	unknown	no scored polls2766d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2766d old Poll was fielded 2766 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Lee 48.0 · Karl Dean 37.0	poll arch
10/12/2018	Targoz Market Research	0.77	—(R+1.0)	558	—	LV	2767d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+2 2767d old Poll was fielded 2767 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 26 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias R+1.0pt Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+1.0pt.	Bill Lee 56.0 · Karl Dean 44.0	poll arch
10/11/2018	NYT Upshot/Siena College	0.87	—(D+1.7)	593	±4.2	unknown	3 scored polls2768d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 2768d old Poll was fielded 2768 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: Siena College Commissioned by Siena College, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Bill Lee 59.0 · Karl Dean 33.0	poll arch
10/2/2018	Fox News	1.00	—(D+2.6)	666	±3.5	LV	bias D+2.6pt2777d old+1 bias D+2.6pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt. 2777d old Poll was fielded 2777 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Bill Lee 53.0 · Karl Dean 36.0	poll arch
9/24/2018	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	1609	±3.3	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt2785d old+2 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 2785d old Poll was fielded 2785 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. n=1,609 Sample size of 1,609 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Bill Lee 46.0 · Karl Dean 35.0	poll arch
9/18/2018	Vox Populi Polling	0.96	—(D+1.9)	567	±4.1	unknown	2791d oldtracks editorial consensus 2791d old Poll was fielded 2791 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Lee 55.0 · Karl Dean 45.0	poll arch
9/15/2018	CNN/SSRS	1.00	—(D+4.4)	723	±4.3	LV	historical bias D+4.4pt2794d old+1 historical bias D+4.4pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.4pt — a measurable house effect. 2794d old Poll was fielded 2794 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Bill Lee 52.0 · Karl Dean 43.0	poll arch
9/12/2018	Triton Polling & Research	1.00	R	1038	±3.0	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2797d old Poll was fielded 2797 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Lee 54.0 · Karl Dean 37.0	poll arch
9/11/2018	Fox News	1.00	—(D+2.6)	686	±3.5	LV	bias D+2.6pt2798d old+1 bias D+2.6pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt. 2798d old Poll was fielded 2798 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Bill Lee 55.0 · Karl Dean 35.0	poll arch
8/28/2018	Marist College	1.00	—(D+2.4)	538	±5.1	LV	bias D+2.4pt2812d old+2 bias D+2.4pt Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt. 2812d old Poll was fielded 2812 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Lee 53.0 · Karl Dean 40.0	poll arch
8/11/2018	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	620	±3.9	unknown	bias D+2.9pt2829d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 2829d old Poll was fielded 2829 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bill Lee 51.0 · Karl Dean 40.0	poll arch
7/14/2018	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	657	±4.1	unknown	2857d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2857d old Poll was fielded 2857 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Diane Black 35.0 · Karl Dean 39.0	poll arch
7/14/2018	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	657	±4.1	unknown	2857d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2857d old Poll was fielded 2857 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Randy Boyd 34.0 · Karl Dean 36.0	poll arch
1/24/2018	Triton Polling & Research	1.00	R	1003	±3.1	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3028d old Poll was fielded 3028 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Lee 38.0 · Karl Dean 34.0	poll arch
1/24/2018	Triton Polling & Research	1.00	R	1003	±3.1	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3028d old Poll was fielded 3028 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Diane Black 46.0 · Karl Dean 35.0	poll arch
1/24/2018	Triton Polling & Research	1.00	R	1003	±3.1	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3028d old Poll was fielded 3028 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Randy Boyd 43.0 · Karl Dean 34.0	poll arch
1/24/2018	Triton Polling & Research	1.00	R	1003	±3.1	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3028d old Poll was fielded 3028 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Beth Harwell 43.0 · Karl Dean 33.0	poll arch
1/24/2018	Triton Polling & Research	1.00	R	1003	±3.1	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3028d old Poll was fielded 3028 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mae Beavers 36.0 · Karl Dean 36.0	poll arch
12/12/2017	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	563	±4.1	unknown	bias D+2.9pt3071d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 3071d old Poll was fielded 3071 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Diane Black 40.0 · Karl Dean 31.0	poll arch
12/12/2017	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	563	±4.1	unknown	bias D+2.9pt3071d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 3071d old Poll was fielded 3071 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Randy Boyd 38.0 · Karl Dean 35.0	poll arch
12/12/2017	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	563	±4.1	unknown	bias D+2.9pt3071d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 3071d old Poll was fielded 3071 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Beth Harwell 38.0 · Karl Dean 33.0	poll arch
12/12/2017	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	563	±4.1	unknown	bias D+2.9pt3071d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 3071d old Poll was fielded 3071 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Diane Black 42.0 · Craig Fitzhugh 27.0	poll arch
12/12/2017	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	563	±4.1	unknown	bias D+2.9pt3071d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 3071d old Poll was fielded 3071 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Randy Boyd 39.0 · Craig Fitzhugh 30.0	poll arch
12/12/2017	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	563	±4.1	unknown	bias D+2.9pt3071d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 3071d old Poll was fielded 3071 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Beth Harwell 44.0 · Craig Fitzhugh 24.0	poll arch
12/12/2017	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	563	±4.1	unknown	bias D+2.9pt3071d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 3071d old Poll was fielded 3071 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Mae Beavers 32.0 · Karl Dean 37.0	poll arch
12/12/2017	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	563	±4.1	unknown	bias D+2.9pt3071d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 3071d old Poll was fielded 3071 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Mae Beavers 36.0 · Craig Fitzhugh 29.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

4 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Likely R	Oct 26	—	-9.0	—
FiveThirtyEight	Safe R	Nov 5	—	-18.0	—
RealClearPolitics	Likely R	Nov 4	—	-9.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe R	Nov 5	—	-18.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 92 months ago (10/31/2018) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Likely R via pvi