Races · Governor · 2018 · TX

Governor · open seat

Lupe Valdez vs Greg Abbott

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Lean R — · 29 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2749d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 29 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean R

lean-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 29 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:29 of 29 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
10/30/2018	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	781	±3.7	unknown	2749d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2749d old Poll was fielded 2749 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Greg Abbott 51.0 · Lupe Valdez 43.0 · Mark Tippetts 2.0	poll arch
10/28/2018	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1078	±3.5	unknown	2751d oldtracks editorial consensus 2751d old Poll was fielded 2751 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Greg Abbott 54.0 · Lupe Valdez 40.0	poll arch
10/28/2018	University of Texas Tyler	1.00	—	1033	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls2751d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2751d old Poll was fielded 2751 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Greg Abbott 53.0 · Lupe Valdez 32.0	poll arch
10/26/2018	Dixie Strategies	1.00	—	588	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls2753d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2753d old Poll was fielded 2753 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Greg Abbott 59.0 · Lupe Valdez 33.0	poll arch
10/21/2018	University of Texas/YouGov	1.00	—	927	±3.2	unknown	no scored polls2758d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2758d old Poll was fielded 2758 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Greg Abbott 56.0 · Lupe Valdez 37.0 · Mark Tippetts 3.0	poll arch
10/18/2018	Ipsos	1.00	—(R+1.9)	1298	±3.2	unknown	2761d oldtracks editorial consensus 2761d old Poll was fielded 2761 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Greg Abbott 53.0 · Lupe Valdez 38.0	poll arch
10/13/2018	CNN/SSRS	1.00	—(D+4.4)	716	±4.5	LV	historical bias D+4.4pt2766d old+1 historical bias D+4.4pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.4pt — a measurable house effect. 2766d old Poll was fielded 2766 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Greg Abbott 57.0 · Lupe Valdez 39.0	poll arch
10/11/2018	NYT Upshot/Siena College	0.87	—(D+1.7)	800	±3.6	unknown	3 scored polls2768d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 2768d old Poll was fielded 2768 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: Siena College Commissioned by Siena College, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Greg Abbott 57.0 · Lupe Valdez 35.0	poll arch
10/9/2018	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	730	±4.4	unknown	2770d oldtracks editorial consensus 2770d old Poll was fielded 2770 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Greg Abbott 58.0 · Lupe Valdez 38.0	poll arch
10/5/2018	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	500	±4.5	unknown	2774d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2774d old Poll was fielded 2774 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Greg Abbott 53.0 · Lupe Valdez 33.0	poll arch
9/24/2018	Epstein Group	1.00	—	1200	±2.9	unknown	no scored polls2785d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2785d old Poll was fielded 2785 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Greg Abbott 58.0 · Lupe Valdez 29.0 · Mark Tippetts 3.0	poll arch
9/18/2018	Vox Populi Polling	0.96	—(D+1.9)	508	±4.4	unknown	2791d oldtracks editorial consensus 2791d old Poll was fielded 2791 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Greg Abbott 55.0 · Lupe Valdez 45.0	poll arch
9/17/2018	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	807	±4.1	unknown	2792d oldtracks editorial consensus 2792d old Poll was fielded 2792 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Greg Abbott 58.0 · Lupe Valdez 39.0	poll arch
9/14/2018	Ipsos	1.00	—(R+1.9)	992	±4.0	unknown	2795d oldtracks editorial consensus 2795d old Poll was fielded 2795 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Greg Abbott 50.0 · Lupe Valdez 41.0	poll arch
9/9/2018	Crosswind Media & Public Relations	1.00	—	800	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls2800d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2800d old Poll was fielded 2800 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Greg Abbott 52.0 · Lupe Valdez 39.0	poll arch
9/7/2018	Dixie Strategies	1.00	—	519	±4.3	unknown	no scored polls2802d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2802d old Poll was fielded 2802 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Greg Abbott 53.0 · Lupe Valdez 34.0 · Mark Tippetts 1.0	poll arch
8/25/2018	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	550	±4.4	unknown	2815d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2815d old Poll was fielded 2815 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Greg Abbott 48.0 · Lupe Valdez 28.0	poll arch
8/16/2018	Marist College	1.00	—(D+2.4)	759	±3.8	unknown	bias D+2.4pt2824d old+1 bias D+2.4pt Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt. 2824d old Poll was fielded 2824 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Greg Abbott 56.0 · Lupe Valdez 37.0	poll arch
7/31/2018	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1118	±3.5	unknown	2840d oldtracks editorial consensus 2840d old Poll was fielded 2840 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Greg Abbott 51.0 · Lupe Valdez 38.0	poll arch
7/26/2018	Texas Lyceum	1.00	—	441	±4.7	LV	no scored polls2845d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2845d old Poll was fielded 2845 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Greg Abbott 47.0 · Lupe Valdez 31.0 · Mark Tippetts 1.0	poll arch
7/7/2018	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	602	±4.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt2864d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 2864d old Poll was fielded 2864 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Greg Abbott 51.0 · Lupe Valdez 41.0	poll arch
6/17/2018	University of Texas/YouGov	1.00	—	1200	±2.8	unknown	no scored polls2884d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2884d old Poll was fielded 2884 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Greg Abbott 44.0 · Lupe Valdez 32.0 · Mark Tippetts 4.0	poll arch
5/29/2018	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	961	±3.8	unknown	2903d oldtracks editorial consensus 2903d old Poll was fielded 2903 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Greg Abbott 53.0 · Lupe Valdez 34.0	poll arch
5/21/2018	JMC Analytics (R-Red Metrics Group)	1.00	—	575	±4.1	unknown	no scored polls2911d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2911d old Poll was fielded 2911 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Greg Abbott 48.0 · Lupe Valdez 36.0	poll arch
5/21/2018	JMC Analytics (R-Red Metrics Group)	1.00	—	575	±4.1	unknown	no scored polls2911d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2911d old Poll was fielded 2911 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Greg Abbott 50.0 · Andrew White 39.0	poll arch
4/17/2018	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1029	±3.6	unknown	2945d oldtracks editorial consensus 2945d old Poll was fielded 2945 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Greg Abbott 49.0 · Lupe Valdez 40.0	poll arch
4/17/2018	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1029	±3.6	unknown	2945d oldtracks editorial consensus 2945d old Poll was fielded 2945 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Greg Abbott 48.0 · Andrew White 41.0	poll arch
8/14/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	944	±3.2	unknown	3556d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3556d old Poll was fielded 3556 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Greg Abbott 57.0 · Julian Castro 28.0	poll arch
8/14/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	944	±3.2	unknown	3556d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3556d old Poll was fielded 3556 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Greg Abbott 57.0 · Wendy Davis 32.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 11 total

Greg Abbott (R)

11 endorsements · source

Elected officials (5)

Dan Patrick — lieutenant governor of Texas [ 18 ]
Donald Trump — 45th president of the United States [ 17 ]
John Cornyn — U.S. senator (R-TX) [ 16 ]
Mike Pence — 48th vice president of the United States [ 16 ]
Ted Cruz — U.S. senator (R-TX) [ 16 ]

Newspapers (1)

The Dallas Morning News — [ 12 ]

Other (5)

Bob Enyart — pastor of Denver Bible Church
Empower Texans — [ 19 ]
Flip Benham — evangelist and leader of Operation Save America
NRA Political Victory Fund — [ 20 ]
[ 21 ] — rewhella, evangelist [ 21 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

4 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Safe R	Oct 26	—	-18.0	—
FiveThirtyEight	Safe R	Nov 5	—	-18.0	—
RealClearPolitics	Safe R	Nov 4	—	-18.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe R	Nov 5	—	-18.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 92 months ago (10/30/2018) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Lean R via pvi