Races · Governor · 2018 · VT
Governor · open seat

Christine Hallquist vs Phil Scott

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Likely D — · 3 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2747d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 3 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Likely D

likely-d

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 3 results

3 of 3 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
11/1/2018Gravis Marketing0.72L(D+2.9)885±3.3unknown
bias D+2.9pt2747d old+1
  • bias D+2.9pt
    Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt.
  • 2747d old
    Poll was fielded 2747 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
Phil Scott 49.0 · Christine Hallquist 39.0pollarch
10/14/2018Braun Research1.00—495±4.4unknown
no scored polls2765d old+1
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2765d old
    Poll was fielded 2765 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 5 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
Phil Scott 42.0 · Christine Hallquist 28.0pollarch
9/26/2018Tulchin Research (D-Vermont Democratic Party)1.00—406±4.9unknown
no scored polls2783d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2783d old
    Poll was fielded 2783 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Phil Scott 50.0 · Christine Hallquist 42.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 13 total
Christine Hallquist (D)
11 endorsements · source
Elected officials (3)
  • CCTV Channel 17 Democratic Primary Forum for Governor hosted by VTDigger 8/2/2018
  • Mike Mrowicki — state representative [ 12 ]
  • Tommy Walz — state representative [ 13 ]
Organizations / unions (1)
  • AFL — CIO
Individuals / celebrities (1)
  • [ 14 ] — ughes, executive director of Justice for All, organizer of Poor Peoples Campaign VT [ 14 ]
Other (6)
  • Ben Cohen
  • Brattleboro Community TV Democratic Gubernatorial Candidates Forum 6/6/2018
  • Emerge Vermont
  • SolutionsToWork
  • Vermont Green Grow Wellness Center
  • WCAX Democratic+Republican forum 7/31/2018
Phil Scott (R)
2 endorsements · source
Elected officials (1)
  • CCTV Channel 17 Republican Primary Forum for Governor 7/25/2018
Other (1)
  • WCAX Democratic+Republican forum 7/31/2018

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

4 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Safe R Oct 26 — -18.0 —
FiveThirtyEight Safe R Nov 5 — -18.0 —
RealClearPolitics Likely R Nov 4 — -9.0 —
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe R Nov 5 — -18.0 —

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 92 months ago (11/1/2018) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/6/2026 Likely D via pvi