Races · Governor · 2018 · WI
Governor · open seat

Tony Evers vs Scott Walker

Tilt R · 26 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2745d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 26 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt R

tilt-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 26 results

26 of 26 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
11/3/2018Research Co.1.01(D+1.5)450±4.6unknown
2745d oldbias D+1.5pt+1
  • 2745d old
    Poll was fielded 2745 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • bias D+1.5pt
    Across 49 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.5pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 53 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Scott Walker 44.0 · Tony Evers 45.0pollarch
10/31/2018Emerson College1.00(D+0.7)604±4.1unknown
2748d oldtracks editorial consensus+1
  • 2748d old
    Poll was fielded 2748 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Scott Walker 46.0 · Tony Evers 51.0pollarch
10/28/2018Marquette University1.00(R+1.3)1154±3.2LV
2751d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 2751d old
    Poll was fielded 2751 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Scott Walker 47.0 · Tony Evers 47.0 · Phil Anderson 3.0pollarch
10/18/2018Ipsos1.00(R+1.9)1193±3.0unknown
2761d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 2761d old
    Poll was fielded 2761 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Scott Walker 45.0 · Tony Evers 48.0pollarch
10/7/2018Marquette University1.00(R+1.3)799±3.9LV
2772d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 2772d old
    Poll was fielded 2772 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Scott Walker 47.0 · Tony Evers 46.0 · Phil Anderson 5.0pollarch
10/3/2018Marist College1.00(D+2.4)571±4.8LV
bias D+2.4pt2776d old+2
  • bias D+2.4pt
    Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt.
  • 2776d old
    Poll was fielded 2776 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Scott Walker 42.0 · Tony Evers 50.0 · Phil Anderson 3.0pollarch
9/24/2018Ipsos1.00(R+1.9)1109±3.0unknown
2785d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 2785d old
    Poll was fielded 2785 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Scott Walker 43.0 · Tony Evers 50.0pollarch
9/16/2018Marquette University1.00(R+1.3)614±4.4LV
2793d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 2793d old
    Poll was fielded 2793 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Scott Walker 44.0 · Tony Evers 49.0 · Phil Anderson 6.0pollarch
9/5/2018Public Policy Polling (D-High Ground Action Fund)1.00726±4.0unknown
no scored polls2804d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2804d old
    Poll was fielded 2804 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Scott Walker 45.0 · Tony Evers 49.0pollarch
8/24/2018Suffolk University1.44neutral(D+0.1)500±4.4unknown
2816d oldbias D+0.1pt+1
  • 2816d old
    Poll was fielded 2816 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • bias D+0.1pt
    Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Scott Walker 44.0 · Tony Evers 46.0 · Phil Anderson 2.0pollarch
8/19/2018Marquette University1.00(R+1.3)601±4.5LV
2821d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 2821d old
    Poll was fielded 2821 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Scott Walker 46.0 · Tony Evers 46.0 · Phil Anderson 6.0pollarch
8/16/2018Public Policy Polling1.00(D+1.1)596±4.0unknown
2824d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 2824d old
    Poll was fielded 2824 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Scott Walker 44.0 · Tony Evers 49.0pollarch
7/28/2018Emerson College1.00(D+0.7)632±4.2unknown
2843d oldtracks editorial consensus+1
  • 2843d old
    Poll was fielded 2843 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Scott Walker 41.0 · Tony Evers 48.0pollarch
7/19/2018Marist College1.00(D+2.4)906±3.8unknown
bias D+2.4pt2852d old+1
  • bias D+2.4pt
    Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt.
  • 2852d old
    Poll was fielded 2852 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Scott Walker 41.0 · Tony Evers 54.0pollarch
6/17/2018Marquette University1.00(R+1.3)800±4.0unknown
2884d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus
  • 2884d old
    Poll was fielded 2884 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
Scott Walker 48.0 · Tony Evers 44.0pollarch
6/17/2018Marquette University1.00(R+1.3)800±4.0unknown
2884d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus
  • 2884d old
    Poll was fielded 2884 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
Scott Walker 48.0 · Kelda Roys 40.0pollarch
6/17/2018Marquette University1.00(R+1.3)400±5.6unknown
2884d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus
  • 2884d old
    Poll was fielded 2884 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
Scott Walker 46.0 · Matt Flynn 42.0pollarch
6/17/2018Marquette University1.00(R+1.3)400±5.6unknown
2884d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus
  • 2884d old
    Poll was fielded 2884 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
Scott Walker 44.0 · Mike McCabe 42.0pollarch
6/17/2018Marquette University1.00(R+1.3)400±5.6unknown
2884d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus
  • 2884d old
    Poll was fielded 2884 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
Scott Walker 45.0 · Mahlon Mitchell 41.0pollarch
6/17/2018Marquette University1.00(R+1.3)400±5.6unknown
2884d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus
  • 2884d old
    Poll was fielded 2884 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
Scott Walker 49.0 · Josh Pade 36.0pollarch
6/17/2018Marquette University1.00(R+1.3)400±5.6unknown
2884d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus
  • 2884d old
    Poll was fielded 2884 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
Scott Walker 48.0 · Paul Soglin 39.0pollarch
6/17/2018Marquette University1.00(R+1.3)400±5.6unknown
2884d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus
  • 2884d old
    Poll was fielded 2884 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
Scott Walker 48.0 · Kathleen Vinehout 39.0pollarch
6/17/2018Marquette University1.00(R+1.3)400±5.6unknown
2884d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus
  • 2884d old
    Poll was fielded 2884 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
Scott Walker 46.0 · Andy Gronik 41.0pollarch
6/17/2018Marquette University1.00(R+1.3)400±5.6unknown
2884d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus
  • 2884d old
    Poll was fielded 2884 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
Scott Walker 49.0 · Dana Wachs 38.0pollarch
5/10/2018Public Policy Polling (D-Evers)1.00644±3.9unknown
no scored polls2922d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2922d old
    Poll was fielded 2922 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Scott Walker 45.0 · Tony Evers 49.0pollarch
10/18/2017Public Policy Polling1.00(D+1.1)1116±2.9unknown
3126d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 3126d old
    Poll was fielded 3126 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Scott Walker 43.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 6 total
Scott Walker (R)
6 endorsements · source
Elected officials (4)
  • Donald Trump — president of the United States [ 7 ]
  • Mike Pence — vice president of the United States [ 6 ]
  • Rebecca Kleefisch — incumbent lieutenant governor [ 12 ]
  • Tommy Thompson — former governor of Wisconsin [ 8 ]
Organizations / unions (1)
  • National Federation of Independent Business — [ 10 ]
Other (1)
  • Associated Builders and Contractors — [ 9 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

4 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Tossup Oct 26 0.0
FiveThirtyEight Lean D Nov 5 +3.5
RealClearPolitics Tossup Nov 4 0.0
Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean D Nov 5 +3.5

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 92 months ago (11/3/2018) last market quote rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/6/2026 Tilt R via pvi