Races · Governor · 2018 · WY
Governor · open seat
Mary Throne vs Mark Gordon
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 1 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
Verified Safe R
safe-r
Polling average
Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
|Toggle:
All polls · 1 results
1 of 1 polls
| End | Pollster | Weight | Lean | Sample | MoE | Pop | Trust signals | Results | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/4/2018 | Change Research | 0.61 | L(D+3.7) | 858 | — | unknown | historical bias D+3.7pt2744d old+1
| Mark Gordon 61.0 · Mary Throne 27.0 · Lawrence Struempf 4.0 | pollarch |
Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.
Endorsements
Source · Wikipedia · 70 total Mark Gordon (R)
60 endorsements · source
Elected officials (51)
- 2006 — Hunkins, Republican nominee for governor in 2006
- Aaron Clausen — state representative [ 27 ]
- Affie Ellis — state senator [ 26 ]
- Alan Simpson — former U.S. senator (R-WY) [ 26 ]
- Amy Edmonds — former state representative [ 26 ]
- Bob Nicholas — state representative [ 27 ]
- Bruce Burns — state senator [ 27 ]
- Cale Case — state senator [ 27 ]
- Charles Scott — state senator [ 33 ]
- Charlie Kirk — founder and president of Turning Point USA [ 20 ]
- Cheri Steinmetz — state representative [ 34 ]
- Clark Stith — state representative [ 27 ]
- Craig Thomas — wife of late Senator Craig Thomas (R-WY) [ 28 ]
- Cynthia Lummis — former U.S. representative (R-WY) [ 26 ]
- Dan Kirkbride — state representative [ 27 ]
- Dan Zwonitzer — state representative [ 27 ]
- David Northrup — state representative [ 27 ]
- David Zwonitzer — former state representative [ 27 ]
- Donald Burkhart — speaker pro tempore of the Wyoming House of Representatives [ 27 ]
- Donald Trump — 45th president of the United States (2017–2021) [ 16 ]
- Donald Trump Jr. — businessman and son of President Donald Trump [ 22 ]
- Elaine Harvey — former state representative [ 27 ]
- Eric Barlow — state representative [ 27 ]
- Gregg Blikre — former state representative [ 27 ]
- Hank Coe — state senator [ 27 ]
- Jamie Flitner — state representative [ 27 ]
- Jerry Obermueller — state representative [ 27 ]
- Jim Anderson — state senator [ 27 ]
- Landon Brown — state representative [ 27 ]
- Lloyd Larsen — state representative [ 27 ]
- Malcolm Wallop — wife of late Senator Malcolm Wallop (R-WY) [ 28 ]
- Mark Baker — former state representative [ 17 ]
- Mark Jennings — state representative [ 32 ]
- Max Maxfield — former secretary of state of Wyoming and former state auditor [ 28 ]
- Michael Von Flatern — state senator [ 27 ]
- Mike Greear — state representative [ 27 ]
- Mike Madden — state representative [ 27 ]
- Nels J. Smith — former speaker of the Wyoming House of Representatives [ 27 ]
- Pat Sweeney — state representative [ 27 ]
- Rand Paul — U.S. senator (R-KY) [ 14 ]
- Rick Santorum — former U.S. senator (R-PA) [ 15 ]
- Ruth Petroff — former state representative [ 28 ]
- Scott Clem — state representative [ 31 ]
- Stan Cooper — former state senator [ 27 ]
- Tom Lubnau — former speaker of the Wyoming House of Representatives [ 27 ]
- Tom Walters — state representative [ 27 ]
- Tyler Lindholm — state representative [ 29 ]
- Wayne Johnson — former state senator [ 27 ]
- [ 27 ] — ney, former state representative [ 27 ]
- [ 28 ] — lloway, former state representative [ 28 ]
- secretary of state of Wyoming — of state of Wyoming and former state superintendent of Public Instruction [ 27 ]
Newspapers (1)
- Kimberly Guilfoyle — television news personality [ 18 ]
Organizations / unions (3)
- Family Research Council — [ 23 ]
- National Federation of Independent Business — [ 30 ]
- Tea Party Patriots — [ 24 ]
Individuals / celebrities (1)
- Chuck Norris — martial artist, actor, film producer and screenwriter [ 21 ]
Other (4)
- Cynthia Cloud — state auditor [ 27 ]
- Kyle Kashuv — school safety activist [ 19 ]
- Rosie Berger — former majority leader of the Wyoming House of Representatives [ 27 ]
- [ 25 ] — g Right to Life [ 25 ]
Mary Throne (D)
10 endorsements · source
Elected officials (5)
- Andy Schwartz — state representative [ 50 ]
- Chris Rothfuss — minority leader of the Wyoming Senate [ 51 ]
- Julian Castro — former United States Secretary of Housing and Urban Development and former mayor of San Antonio, Texas [ 48 ]
- Kathy Karpan — former Wyoming Secretary of State , 1994 Democratic nominee for Governor, and 1996 Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate [ 49 ]
- Mike Gierau — state representative [ 50 ]
Newspapers (1)
- Wyoming Tribune Eagle — [ 54 ]
Organizations / unions (1)
- [ 53 ] — g Education Association [ 53 ]
Individuals / celebrities (2)
- 2016 — Greene, author, businessman, and nominee for the U.S. House of Representatives in 2016 [ 51 ]
- [ 50 ] — Babcock, Wyoming activist and founder/director of the Equipoise Fund [ 50 ]
Other (1)
- [ 52 ] — r Cheyenne Chamber of Commerce [ 52 ]
Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater
4 raters| Rater | Rating | Updated | Poll D-marg. | Rater marg. | Δ poll−rater |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Safe R | Oct 26 | — | -18.0 | — |
| FiveThirtyEight | Safe R | Nov 5 | — | -18.0 | — |
| RealClearPolitics | Safe R | Nov 4 | — | -18.0 | — |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe R | Nov 5 | — | -18.0 | — |
Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.
last poll 91 months ago (11/4/2018) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
- 5/6/2026 Safe R via pvi