Races · Governor · 2018 · NV

Governor · open seat

Steve Sisolak vs Adam Laxalt

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Tossup — · 29 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2743d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 29 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Tossup

tossup

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 29 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:29 of 29 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/5/2018	HarrisX	1.00	—(R+0.4)	600	±4.0	unknown	2743d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2743d old Poll was fielded 2743 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 67 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias R+0.4pt Across 65 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is R+0.4pt — within ±1pt.	Adam Laxalt 44.0 · Steve Sisolak 45.0	poll arch
11/4/2018	HarrisX	1.00	—(R+0.4)	600	±4.0	unknown	2744d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2744d old Poll was fielded 2744 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 67 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias R+0.4pt Across 65 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is R+0.4pt — within ±1pt.	Adam Laxalt 45.0 · Steve Sisolak 44.0	poll arch
11/4/2018	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	1197	±3.0	unknown	2744d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2744d old Poll was fielded 2744 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Adam Laxalt 47.0 · Steve Sisolak 48.0	poll arch
11/3/2018	HarrisX	1.00	—(R+0.4)	600	±4.0	unknown	2745d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2745d old Poll was fielded 2745 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 67 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias R+0.4pt Across 65 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is R+0.4pt — within ±1pt.	Adam Laxalt 45.0 · Steve Sisolak 44.0	poll arch
11/2/2018	HarrisX	1.00	—(R+0.4)	600	±4.0	unknown	2746d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2746d old Poll was fielded 2746 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 67 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias R+0.4pt Across 65 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is R+0.4pt — within ±1pt.	Adam Laxalt 47.0 · Steve Sisolak 43.0	poll arch
11/1/2018	HarrisX	1.00	—(R+0.4)	600	±4.0	unknown	2747d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2747d old Poll was fielded 2747 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 67 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias R+0.4pt Across 65 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is R+0.4pt — within ±1pt.	Adam Laxalt 46.0 · Steve Sisolak 43.0	poll arch
11/1/2018	The Trafalgar Group	0.89	R(R+3.4)	2587	±1.9	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedhistorical bias R+3.4pt+2 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 2747d old Poll was fielded 2747 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=2,587 Sample size of 2,587 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.9pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Adam Laxalt 47.0 · Steve Sisolak 45.0	poll arch
10/31/2018	HarrisX	1.00	—(R+0.4)	600	±4.0	unknown	2748d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2748d old Poll was fielded 2748 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 67 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias R+0.4pt Across 65 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is R+0.4pt — within ±1pt.	Adam Laxalt 45.0 · Steve Sisolak 45.0	poll arch
10/30/2018	HarrisX	1.00	—(R+0.4)	1400	±2.6	unknown	2749d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2749d old Poll was fielded 2749 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 67 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias R+0.4pt Across 65 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is R+0.4pt — within ±1pt.	Adam Laxalt 43.0 · Steve Sisolak 45.0	poll arch
10/29/2018	CNN/SSRS	1.00	—(D+4.4)	622	±4.8	LV	historical bias D+4.4pt2750d old+1 historical bias D+4.4pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.4pt — a measurable house effect. 2750d old Poll was fielded 2750 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Adam Laxalt 45.0 · Steve Sisolak 46.0 · Jared Lord 2.0	poll arch
10/26/2018	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	773	±3.5	unknown	bias D+2.9pt2753d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 2753d old Poll was fielded 2753 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Adam Laxalt 44.0 · Steve Sisolak 46.0	poll arch
10/19/2018	Ipsos	1.00	—(R+1.9)	1137	±3.0	unknown	2760d oldtracks editorial consensus 2760d old Poll was fielded 2760 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Adam Laxalt 46.0 · Steve Sisolak 41.0	poll arch
10/15/2018	Vox Populi Polling	0.96	—(D+1.9)	614	±3.7	unknown	2764d oldtracks editorial consensus 2764d old Poll was fielded 2764 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Adam Laxalt 48.0 · Steve Sisolak 52.0	poll arch
10/12/2018	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	625	±4.2	unknown	2767d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2767d old Poll was fielded 2767 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Adam Laxalt 46.0 · Steve Sisolak 41.0	poll arch
10/10/2018	NYT Upshot/Siena College	0.87	—(D+1.7)	642	±4.0	unknown	3 scored polls2769d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 2769d old Poll was fielded 2769 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: Siena College Commissioned by Siena College, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Adam Laxalt 46.0 · Steve Sisolak 45.0	poll arch
10/3/2018	Marist College	1.00	—(D+2.4)	574	±5.5	LV	bias D+2.4pt2776d old+2 bias D+2.4pt Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt. 2776d old Poll was fielded 2776 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Adam Laxalt 44.0 · Steve Sisolak 40.0 · Jared Lord 8.0	poll arch
10/2/2018	Kaiser Family Foundation/SSRS	1.00	—	513	±5.0	unknown	no scored polls2777d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2777d old Poll was fielded 2777 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Adam Laxalt 46.0 · Steve Sisolak 40.0	poll arch
9/29/2018	CNN/SSRS	1.00	—(D+4.4)	693	±4.6	LV	historical bias D+4.4pt2780d old+1 historical bias D+4.4pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.4pt — a measurable house effect. 2780d old Poll was fielded 2780 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Adam Laxalt 41.0 · Steve Sisolak 45.0 · Jared Lord 5.0	poll arch
9/17/2018	Ipsos	1.00	—(R+1.9)	1039	±4.0	unknown	2792d oldtracks editorial consensus 2792d old Poll was fielded 2792 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Adam Laxalt 43.0 · Steve Sisolak 40.0	poll arch
9/12/2018	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	700	±3.7	unknown	bias D+2.9pt2797d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 2797d old Poll was fielded 2797 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Adam Laxalt 38.0 · Steve Sisolak 50.0	poll arch
9/10/2018	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	2799d oldbias D+0.1pt+1 2799d old Poll was fielded 2799 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Adam Laxalt 35.0 · Steve Sisolak 37.0 · Jared Lord 5.0 · Ryan Bundy 4.0	poll arch
7/29/2018	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	2842d oldbias D+0.1pt+1 2842d old Poll was fielded 2842 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Adam Laxalt 42.0 · Steve Sisolak 41.0 · Jared Lord 2.0 · Ryan Bundy 1.0	poll arch
7/24/2018	McLaughlin & Associates (R-Laxalt)	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls2847d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2847d old Poll was fielded 2847 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Adam Laxalt 45.0 · Steve Sisolak 40.0 · Jared Lord 3.0	poll arch
6/26/2018	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	630	±3.9	unknown	bias D+2.9pt2875d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 2875d old Poll was fielded 2875 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Adam Laxalt 43.0 · Steve Sisolak 41.0	poll arch
4/19/2018	The Mellman Group	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls2943d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2943d old Poll was fielded 2943 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Adam Laxalt 37.0 · Steve Sisolak 43.0	poll arch
4/19/2018	The Mellman Group	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls2943d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2943d old Poll was fielded 2943 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Adam Laxalt 40.0 · Chris Giunchigliani 38.0	poll arch
1/7/2018	TargetSmart (D-Giunchigliani)	1.00	—	1103	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls3045d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3045d old Poll was fielded 3045 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Adam Laxalt 37.0 · Steve Sisolak 34.0	poll arch
1/7/2018	TargetSmart (D-Giunchigliani)	1.00	—	1103	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls3045d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3045d old Poll was fielded 3045 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Adam Laxalt 39.0 · Chris Giunchigliani 34.0	poll arch
5/24/2017	Remington (R-Laxalt)	1.00	—	1021	±3.1	unknown	no scored polls3273d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3273d old Poll was fielded 3273 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Adam Laxalt 46.0 · Steve Sisolak 37.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 45 total

Adam Laxalt (R)

45 endorsements · source

Elected officials (21)

Bob Cashell — former mayor of Reno [ 32 ]
Bob List — former governor of Nevada [ 30 ]
Boulder City — Boulder City mayor
Caliente — we, Caliente mayor
Carlin — olbrook, Carlin mayor
Dan Schwartz — 22nd treasurer of Nevada and 2018 Republican primary candidate for governor
Dean Heller — U.S. senator [ 25 ]
Donald Trump — 45th president of the United States [ 24 ]
Elko — s Johnson, Elko mayor
Ely — ody VanCamp, Ely mayor
Fallon — dford, Fallon mayor
Fernley — ington, Jr., Fernley mayor
Jeb Bush — former governor of Florida [ 27 ]
Lovelock — es, Lovelock mayor [ 34 ]
Mark Hutchison — 34th lieutenant governor of Nevada [ 28 ] [ 29 ]
Mesquite — n, Mesquite mayor
Mike Pence — 48th vice president of the United States [ 22 ] [ 23 ]
Oscar Goodman — former mayor of Las Vegas [ 32 ]
Susana Martinez — governor of New Mexico [ 31 ]
Winnemucca — am, Winnemucca mayor
[ 26 ] — rengo, former speaker of the Nevada Assembly ( Democrat ) [ 26 ]

Newspapers (1)

Las Vegas Review-Journal — [ 42 ]

Organizations / unions (2)

National Federation of Independent Business — [ 38 ]
[ 39 ] — Veterans Association [ 39 ]

Other (21)

Carson City — long, Carson City sheriff
Churchill County — rchill County sheriff
Clark County Commissioner — County Commissioner ( Democrat ) [ 33 ]
Douglas County — ouglas County sheriff
Elko County — Elko County sheriff
Esmeralda County — smeralda County sheriff
Eureka County — Eureka County sheriff
First Lady of Nevada — irst Lady of Nevada [ 36 ]
Humboldt County — boldt County sheriff
Lander County — nder County sheriff
Laxalt — 80–90%
Lincoln County — coln County sheriff
Lyon County — Lyon County sheriff [ 35 ]
Mineral County — ineral County sheriff
NRA Political Victory Fund — [ 40 ] [ 41 ]
Nye County — rly, Nye County sheriff
Pershing County — rshing County Sheriff
Storey County — ro, Storey County sheriff
Washoe County — Washoe County sheriff
White Pine County — Pine County sheriff
[ 37 ] — gas Metro Chamber of Commerce [ 37 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

4 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Tossup	Oct 26	—	0.0	—
FiveThirtyEight	Lean D	Nov 5	—	+3.5	—
RealClearPolitics	Tossup	Nov 4	—	0.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean D	Nov 5	—	+3.5	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 91 months ago (11/5/2018) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Tossup via pvi