| 11/3/2018 | Research Co. | 1.01 | —(D+1.5) | 450 | ±4.6 | unknown | 🟡2745d old🔵bias D+1.5pt+1- 🟡
2745d old Poll was fielded 2745 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
bias D+1.5pt Across 49 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.5pt. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 53 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Steve Pearce 41.0 · Michelle Lujan Grisham 53.0 | pollarch |
| 11/1/2018 | Research & Polling Inc. * | 1.86 | neutral(R+0.7) | 993 | ±3.1 | LV | 🟡2747d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+2- 🟡
2747d old Poll was fielded 2747 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 8 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
weight 1.86 Aggregation weight is 1.86 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
| Steve Pearce 43.0 · Michelle Lujan Grisham 53.0 | pollarch |
| 10/29/2018 | Carroll Strategies | 1.00 | — | 1200 | ±2.8 | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡2750d old+1- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
2750d old Poll was fielded 2750 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Steve Pearce 45.0 · Michelle Lujan Grisham 51.0 | pollarch |
| 10/26/2018 | Emerson College | 1.00 | —(D+0.7) | 936 | ±3.4 | LV | 🟡2753d old⚪likely-voter screen+2- 🟡
2753d old Poll was fielded 2753 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
| Steve Pearce 44.0 · Michelle Lujan Grisham 53.0 | pollarch |
| 10/26/2018 | GQR Research | 1.00 | L | 600 | ±4.0 | LV | 🟠commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
2753d old Poll was fielded 2753 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 5 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Steve Pearce 44.0 · Michelle Lujan Grisham 53.0 | pollarch |
| 10/24/2018 | Pacific Market Research | 1.00 | — | 400 | ±4.9 | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡2755d old+1- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
2755d old Poll was fielded 2755 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Steve Pearce 39.0 · Michelle Lujan Grisham 48.0 | pollarch |
| 9/24/2018 | NSON Opinion Strategy | 1.00 | L | 932 | — | LV | 🟠commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned🟡no scored polls+2- 🟠
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
2785d old Poll was fielded 2785 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Steve Pearce 40.0 · Michelle Lujan Grisham 44.0 | pollarch |
| 9/13/2018 | Research & Polling Inc. * | 1.86 | neutral(R+0.7) | 966 | ±3.1 | LV | 🟡2796d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+2- 🟡
2796d old Poll was fielded 2796 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 8 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
weight 1.86 Aggregation weight is 1.86 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
| Steve Pearce 43.0 · Michelle Lujan Grisham 50.0 | pollarch |
| 8/30/2018 | Global Strategy Group | 1.00 | — | 601 | ±4.0 | LV | 🟠commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
2810d old Poll was fielded 2810 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 31 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Steve Pearce 42.0 · Michelle Lujan Grisham 52.0 | pollarch |
| 8/22/2018 | GQR Research | 1.00 | L | 600 | ±4.0 | LV | 🟠commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
2818d old Poll was fielded 2818 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 5 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Steve Pearce 44.0 · Michelle Lujan Grisham 52.0 | pollarch |
| 8/18/2018 | Emerson College | 1.00 | —(D+0.7) | 500 | ±4.6 | RV | 🟡2822d old⚪registered voters+2- 🟡
2822d old Poll was fielded 2822 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
| Steve Pearce 40.0 · Michelle Lujan Grisham 42.0 | pollarch |
| 6/23/2018 | SurveyUSA | 1.00 | —(D+1.5) | 535 | ±5.0 | LV | 🟡2878d old⚪likely-voter screen+1- 🟡
2878d old Poll was fielded 2878 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Steve Pearce 38.0 · Michelle Lujan Grisham 51.0 · Bob Walsh 3.0 | pollarch |
| 6/16/2018 | Carroll Strategies | 1.00 | — | 1199 | ±2.8 | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡2885d old+1- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
2885d old Poll was fielded 2885 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Steve Pearce 42.0 · Michelle Lujan Grisham 51.0 · Bob Walsh 3.0 | pollarch |
| 4/12/2018 | The Tarrance Group | 3.77 | —(D+1.1) | 608 | ±4.1 | LV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned🟡3 scored polls+4- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
2950d old Poll was fielded 2950 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 5 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
weight 3.77 Aggregation weight is 3.77 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
| Steve Pearce 45.0 · Michelle Lujan Grisham 47.0 | pollarch |
| 5/23/2017 | The Tarrance Group | 3.77 | —(D+1.1) | 605 | ±4.1 | RV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned🟡3 scored polls+4- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
3274d old Poll was fielded 3274 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 5 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
weight 3.77 Aggregation weight is 3.77 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
| Steve Pearce 43.0 · Michelle Lujan Grisham 47.0 | pollarch |