| 11/4/2018 | University of New Hampshire | 1.00 | —(R+0.9) | 630 | ±3.9 | unknown | 🟡2744d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+1- 🟡
2744d old Poll was fielded 2744 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - 🔵
bias R+0.9pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
| Chris Sununu 46.0 · Molly Kelly 46.0 · Jilletta Jarvis 2.0 | pollarch |
| 10/29/2018 | Change Research (D-NH Democratic Party) | 1.00 | — | 901 | — | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡2750d old- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
2750d old Poll was fielded 2750 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Chris Sununu 47.0 · Molly Kelly 46.0 | pollarch |
| 10/29/2018 | Emerson College | 1.00 | —(D+0.7) | 1139 | ±3.7 | unknown | 🟡2750d old🔵tracks editorial consensus+1- 🟡
2750d old Poll was fielded 2750 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
| Chris Sununu 51.0 · Molly Kelly 43.0 · Jilletta Jarvis 1.0 | pollarch |
| 10/18/2018 | University of New Hampshire | 1.00 | —(R+0.9) | 499 | ±4.4 | unknown | 🟡2761d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+1- 🟡
2761d old Poll was fielded 2761 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - 🔵
bias R+0.9pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
| Chris Sununu 50.0 · Molly Kelly 39.0 · Jilletta Jarvis 4.0 | pollarch |
| 10/15/2018 | Saint Anselm College | 0.81 | —(R+1.7) | 454 | ±4.6 | unknown | 🟡4 scored polls🟡2764d old+1- 🟡
4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
2764d old Poll was fielded 2764 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 20 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Chris Sununu 49.0 · Molly Kelly 39.0 · Jilletta Jarvis 1.0 | pollarch |
| 10/12/2018 | Emerson College | 1.00 | —(D+0.7) | 625 | ±4.2 | unknown | 🟡2767d old🔵tracks editorial consensus+1- 🟡
2767d old Poll was fielded 2767 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
| Chris Sununu 51.0 · Molly Kelly 35.0 · Jilletta Jarvis 1.0 | pollarch |
| 9/26/2018 | American Research Group | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 800 | ±3.5 | unknown | 🟡3 scored polls🟡2783d old+1- 🟡
3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
2783d old Poll was fielded 2783 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 6 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
| Chris Sununu 49.0 · Molly Kelly 44.0 | pollarch |
| 8/19/2018 | University of New Hampshire | 1.00 | —(R+0.9) | 389 | ±5.0 | unknown | 🟡n=389🟡2821d old+2- 🟡
n=389 Sample size of 389 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.0pt — wider than typical. - 🟡
2821d old Poll was fielded 2821 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - 🔵
bias R+0.9pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
| Chris Sununu 48.0 · Molly Kelly 32.0 | pollarch |
| 8/19/2018 | University of New Hampshire | 1.00 | —(R+0.9) | 389 | ±5.0 | unknown | 🟡n=389🟡2821d old+2- 🟡
n=389 Sample size of 389 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.0pt — wider than typical. - 🟡
2821d old Poll was fielded 2821 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - 🔵
bias R+0.9pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
| Chris Sununu 48.0 · Steve Marchand 33.0 | pollarch |
| 8/15/2018 | Praecones Analytica | 1.00 | — | 626 | ±3.9 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡2825d old- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
2825d old Poll was fielded 2825 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Chris Sununu 47.0 | pollarch |
| 4/30/2018 | Suffolk University | 1.44 | neutral(D+0.1) | 800 | ±3.5 | unknown | 🟡2932d old🔵bias D+0.1pt+1- 🟡
2932d old Poll was fielded 2932 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Chris Sununu 48.0 · Molly Kelly 27.0 · Jilletta Jarvis 4.0 | pollarch |
| 4/30/2018 | Suffolk University | 1.44 | neutral(D+0.1) | 800 | ±3.5 | unknown | 🟡2932d old🔵bias D+0.1pt+1- 🟡
2932d old Poll was fielded 2932 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Chris Sununu 49.0 · Steve Marchand 25.0 · Jilletta Jarvis 4.0 | pollarch |
| 4/22/2018 | University of New Hampshire | 1.00 | —(R+0.9) | 379 | ±5.0 | unknown | 🟡n=379🟡2940d old+2- 🟡
n=379 Sample size of 379 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.0pt — wider than typical. - 🟡
2940d old Poll was fielded 2940 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - 🔵
bias R+0.9pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
| Chris Sununu 51.0 · Molly Kelly 24.0 · Jilletta Jarvis 2.0 | pollarch |
| 4/22/2018 | University of New Hampshire | 1.00 | —(R+0.9) | 379 | ±5.0 | unknown | 🟡n=379🟡2940d old+2- 🟡
n=379 Sample size of 379 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.0pt — wider than typical. - 🟡
2940d old Poll was fielded 2940 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - 🔵
bias R+0.9pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
| Chris Sununu 49.0 · Steve Marchand 24.0 · Jilletta Jarvis 2.0 | pollarch |
| 2/10/2018 | University of New Hampshire | 1.00 | —(R+0.9) | 381 | ±5.0 | unknown | 🟡n=381🟡3011d old+2- 🟡
n=381 Sample size of 381 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.0pt — wider than typical. - 🟡
3011d old Poll was fielded 3011 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - 🔵
bias R+0.9pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
| Chris Sununu 42.0 · Steve Marchand 28.0 | pollarch |
| 2/10/2018 | University of New Hampshire | 1.00 | —(R+0.9) | 381 | ±5.0 | unknown | 🟡n=381🟡3011d old+2- 🟡
n=381 Sample size of 381 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.0pt — wider than typical. - 🟡
3011d old Poll was fielded 3011 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - 🔵
bias R+0.9pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
| Chris Sununu 41.0 · Mark Connolly 29.0 | pollarch |
| 2/10/2018 | University of New Hampshire | 1.00 | —(R+0.9) | 381 | ±5.0 | unknown | 🟡n=381🟡3011d old+2- 🟡
n=381 Sample size of 381 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.0pt — wider than typical. - 🟡
3011d old Poll was fielded 3011 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - 🔵
bias R+0.9pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
| Chris Sununu 41.0 · Colin Van Ostern 31.0 | pollarch |