Races · Senate · 2018 · AZ

Senate · class II · open seat

Kyrsten Sinema vs Martha McSally

CA Senate →

Tilt R — · 75 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2743d ago Rating 1d ago

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Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 75 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

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Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 75 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:75 of 75 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/5/2018	The Trafalgar Group	0.89	R(R+3.4)	1217	±2.8	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedhistorical bias R+3.4pt+1 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 2743d old Poll was fielded 2743 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Martha McSally 47.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 45.0	poll arch
11/5/2018	HarrisX	1.00	—(R+0.4)	600	±4.0	unknown	2743d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2743d old Poll was fielded 2743 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 67 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias R+0.4pt Across 65 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is R+0.4pt — within ±1pt.	Martha McSally 44.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 49.0	poll arch
11/4/2018	HarrisX	1.00	—(R+0.4)	600	±4.0	unknown	2744d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2744d old Poll was fielded 2744 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 67 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias R+0.4pt Across 65 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is R+0.4pt — within ±1pt.	Martha McSally 46.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 47.0	poll arch
11/3/2018	OH Predictive Insights	1.01	—(R+1.6)	631	±3.9	unknown	2745d oldtracks editorial consensus 2745d old Poll was fielded 2745 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Martha McSally 49.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 48.0 · Angela Green 0.0	poll arch
11/3/2018	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	758	±3.7	unknown	2745d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2745d old Poll was fielded 2745 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Martha McSally 48.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 49.0 · Angela Green 2.0	poll arch
11/3/2018	HarrisX	1.00	—(R+0.4)	600	±4.0	unknown	2745d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2745d old Poll was fielded 2745 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 67 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias R+0.4pt Across 65 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is R+0.4pt — within ±1pt.	Martha McSally 48.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 46.0	poll arch
11/3/2018	Research Co.	1.01	—(D+1.5)	450	±4.6	unknown	2745d oldbias D+1.5pt+1 2745d old Poll was fielded 2745 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+1.5pt Across 49 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.5pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 53 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Martha McSally 44.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 45.0	poll arch
11/2/2018	HarrisX	1.00	—(R+0.4)	600	±4.0	unknown	2746d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2746d old Poll was fielded 2746 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 67 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias R+0.4pt Across 65 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is R+0.4pt — within ±1pt.	Martha McSally 49.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 44.0	poll arch
11/2/2018	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	1165	±2.9	unknown	bias D+2.9pt2746d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 2746d old Poll was fielded 2746 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Martha McSally 47.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 46.0	poll arch
11/1/2018	HarrisX	1.00	—(R+0.4)	600	±4.0	unknown	2747d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2747d old Poll was fielded 2747 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 67 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias R+0.4pt Across 65 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is R+0.4pt — within ±1pt.	Martha McSally 48.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 42.0	poll arch
11/1/2018	The Trafalgar Group	0.89	R(R+3.4)	2166	±2.1	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedhistorical bias R+3.4pt+2 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 2747d old Poll was fielded 2747 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=2,166 Sample size of 2,166 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.1pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Martha McSally 47.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 50.0	poll arch
10/31/2018	HarrisX	1.00	—(R+0.4)	600	±4.0	unknown	2748d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2748d old Poll was fielded 2748 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 67 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias R+0.4pt Across 65 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is R+0.4pt — within ±1pt.	Martha McSally 49.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 42.0	poll arch
10/30/2018	Vox Populi Polling	0.96	—(D+1.9)	677	±3.7	unknown	2749d oldtracks editorial consensus 2749d old Poll was fielded 2749 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Martha McSally 48.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 52.0	poll arch
10/30/2018	HarrisX	1.00	—(R+0.4)	1400	±2.6	unknown	2749d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2749d old Poll was fielded 2749 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 67 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias R+0.4pt Across 65 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is R+0.4pt — within ±1pt.	Martha McSally 48.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 43.0	poll arch
10/29/2018	Fox News	1.00	—(D+2.6)	643	±3.5	LV	bias D+2.6pt2750d old+1 bias D+2.6pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt. 2750d old Poll was fielded 2750 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Martha McSally 46.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 46.0	poll arch
10/29/2018	CNN/SSRS	1.00	—(D+4.4)	702	±4.4	LV	historical bias D+4.4pt2750d old+1 historical bias D+4.4pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.4pt — a measurable house effect. 2750d old Poll was fielded 2750 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Martha McSally 47.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 51.0	poll arch
10/28/2018	HighGround Public Affairs	0.68	—(R+0.9)	400	±4.9	unknown	3 scored polls2751d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 2751d old Poll was fielded 2751 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Martha McSally 47.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 45.0 · Angela Green 4.0	poll arch
10/27/2018	NBC News/Marist College	1.00	—	506	±5.4	LV	no scored polls2752d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2752d old Poll was fielded 2752 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. university-sponsored: Marist College Commissioned by Marist College, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Martha McSally 44.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 47.0 · Angela Green 6.0	poll arch
10/26/2018	CBS News/YouGov	0.92	L(D+3.4)	972	±4.1	unknown	historical bias D+3.4pt2753d old+1 historical bias D+3.4pt Across 16 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 2753d old Poll was fielded 2753 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Martha McSally 44.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 47.0	poll arch
10/26/2018	Ipsos	1.00	—(R+1.9)	799	±4.0	unknown	2753d oldtracks editorial consensus 2753d old Poll was fielded 2753 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Martha McSally 48.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 46.0	poll arch
10/23/2018	OH Predictive Insights	1.01	—(R+1.6)	600	±4.0	unknown	2756d oldtracks editorial consensus 2756d old Poll was fielded 2756 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Martha McSally 52.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 45.0 · Angela Green 1.0	poll arch
10/19/2018	NYT Upshot/Siena College	0.87	—(D+1.7)	606	±4.2	unknown	3 scored polls2760d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 2760d old Poll was fielded 2760 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: Siena College Commissioned by Siena College, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Martha McSally 48.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 46.0 · Angela Green 1.0	poll arch
10/17/2018	Data Orbital	1.42	neutral(R+0.2)	600	±4.0	unknown	2762d oldbias R+0.2pt+1 2762d old Poll was fielded 2762 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias R+0.2pt Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.2pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Martha McSally 41.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 47.0 · Angela Green 3.0	poll arch
10/10/2018	Change Research	0.61	L(D+3.7)	783	—	unknown	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedhistorical bias D+3.7pt+2 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. historical bias D+3.7pt Across 18 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. 2769d old Poll was fielded 2769 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 30 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Martha McSally 44.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 44.0	poll arch
10/5/2018	CBS News/YouGov	0.92	L(D+3.4)	898	—	unknown	historical bias D+3.4pt2774d old+1 historical bias D+3.4pt Across 16 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 2774d old Poll was fielded 2774 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Martha McSally 44.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 47.0	poll arch
10/2/2018	OH Predictive Insights	1.01	—(R+1.6)	600	±4.0	unknown	2777d oldtracks editorial consensus 2777d old Poll was fielded 2777 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Martha McSally 47.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 41.0 · Angela Green 4.0	poll arch
10/2/2018	Fox News	1.00	—(D+2.6)	716	±3.5	LV	bias D+2.6pt2777d old+1 bias D+2.6pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt. 2777d old Poll was fielded 2777 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Martha McSally 45.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 47.0	poll arch
10/1/2018	Vox Populi Polling	0.96	—(D+1.9)	702	±3.5	unknown	2778d oldtracks editorial consensus 2778d old Poll was fielded 2778 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Martha McSally 52.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 49.0	poll arch
9/30/2018	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	2779d oldbias D+0.1pt+1 2779d old Poll was fielded 2779 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Martha McSally 42.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 45.0 · Angela Green 2.0	poll arch
9/25/2018	Latino Decisions	1.00	—	463	—	LV	no scored polls2784d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2784d old Poll was fielded 2784 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Martha McSally 41.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 47.0	poll arch
9/21/2018	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	650	±4.4	unknown	2788d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2788d old Poll was fielded 2788 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Martha McSally 39.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 45.0	poll arch
9/20/2018	NBC News/Marist College	1.00	—	564	±4.7	LV	no scored polls2789d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2789d old Poll was fielded 2789 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. university-sponsored: Marist College Commissioned by Marist College, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Martha McSally 43.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 45.0 · Angela Green 6.0	poll arch
9/15/2018	CNN/SSRS	1.00	—(D+4.4)	761	±4.3	LV	historical bias D+4.4pt2794d old+1 historical bias D+4.4pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.4pt — a measurable house effect. 2794d old Poll was fielded 2794 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Martha McSally 43.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 50.0	poll arch
9/14/2018	Ipsos	1.00	—(R+1.9)	1016	±4.0	unknown	2795d oldtracks editorial consensus 2795d old Poll was fielded 2795 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Martha McSally 44.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 47.0	poll arch
9/13/2018	TargetSmart	1.00	L	800	±4.0	unknown	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2796d old Poll was fielded 2796 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Martha McSally 46.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 51.0	poll arch
9/11/2018	Fox News	1.00	—(D+2.6)	710	±3.5	LV	bias D+2.6pt2798d old+1 bias D+2.6pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt. 2798d old Poll was fielded 2798 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Martha McSally 44.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 47.0	poll arch
9/7/2018	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	882	±3.3	unknown	bias D+2.9pt2802d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 2802d old Poll was fielded 2802 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Martha McSally 49.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 48.0	poll arch
9/6/2018	OH Predictive Insights	1.01	—(R+1.6)	597	±4.0	unknown	2803d oldtracks editorial consensus 2803d old Poll was fielded 2803 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Martha McSally 49.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 46.0	poll arch
9/6/2018	Data Orbital	1.42	neutral(R+0.2)	550	±4.2	unknown	2803d oldbias R+0.2pt+1 2803d old Poll was fielded 2803 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias R+0.2pt Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.2pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Martha McSally 42.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 46.0	poll arch
7/24/2018	OH Predictive Insights	1.01	—(R+1.6)	600	±4.0	unknown	2847d oldtracks editorial consensus 2847d old Poll was fielded 2847 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Martha McSally 44.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 48.0	poll arch
7/24/2018	OH Predictive Insights	1.01	—(R+1.6)	600	±4.0	unknown	2847d oldtracks editorial consensus 2847d old Poll was fielded 2847 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Kelli Ward 41.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 51.0	poll arch
7/24/2018	OH Predictive Insights	1.01	—(R+1.6)	600	±4.0	unknown	2847d oldtracks editorial consensus 2847d old Poll was fielded 2847 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Joe Arpaio 36.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 54.0	poll arch
7/2/2018	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	925	±3.2	unknown	bias D+2.9pt2869d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 2869d old Poll was fielded 2869 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Martha McSally 39.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 43.0	poll arch
7/2/2018	SurveyMonkey/Axios	1.00	—	1290	±4.5	unknown	no scored polls2869d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2869d old Poll was fielded 2869 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: Axios Commissioned by Axios, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Martha McSally 44.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 48.0	poll arch
7/2/2018	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	925	±3.2	unknown	bias D+2.9pt2869d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 2869d old Poll was fielded 2869 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Kelli Ward 37.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 46.0	poll arch
7/2/2018	SurveyMonkey/Axios	1.00	—	1290	±4.5	unknown	no scored polls2869d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2869d old Poll was fielded 2869 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: Axios Commissioned by Axios, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Kelli Ward 41.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 52.0	poll arch
7/2/2018	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	925	±3.2	unknown	bias D+2.9pt2869d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 2869d old Poll was fielded 2869 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Joe Arpaio 33.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 52.0	poll arch
7/2/2018	SurveyMonkey/Axios	1.00	—	1290	±4.5	unknown	no scored polls2869d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2869d old Poll was fielded 2869 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: Axios Commissioned by Axios, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Joe Arpaio 34.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 57.0	poll arch
6/22/2018	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	650	±4.0	unknown	2879d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2879d old Poll was fielded 2879 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Martha McSally 32.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 40.0	poll arch
6/22/2018	CBS News/YouGov	0.92	L(D+3.4)	869	—	LV	historical bias D+3.4pt2879d old+2 historical bias D+3.4pt Across 16 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 2879d old Poll was fielded 2879 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Martha McSally 37.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 45.0	poll arch
6/22/2018	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	650	±4.0	unknown	2879d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2879d old Poll was fielded 2879 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Kelli Ward 26.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 43.0	poll arch
6/22/2018	YouGov	1.00	—(D+3.7)	867	±3.7	LV	historical bias D+3.7pt2879d old+1 historical bias D+3.7pt Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. 2879d old Poll was fielded 2879 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Kelli Ward 38.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 46.0	poll arch
6/22/2018	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	650	±4.0	unknown	2879d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2879d old Poll was fielded 2879 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Joe Arpaio 30.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 54.0	poll arch
6/22/2018	YouGov	1.00	—(D+3.7)	868	±3.7	LV	historical bias D+3.7pt2879d old+1 historical bias D+3.7pt Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. 2879d old Poll was fielded 2879 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Joe Arpaio 29.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 49.0	poll arch
6/21/2018	NBC News/Marist College	1.00	—	839	±4.5	unknown	no scored polls2880d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2880d old Poll was fielded 2880 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: Marist College Commissioned by Marist College, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Martha McSally 38.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 49.0	poll arch
6/21/2018	Marist College	1.00	—(D+2.4)	839	±4.5	unknown	bias D+2.4pt2880d old+1 bias D+2.4pt Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt. 2880d old Poll was fielded 2880 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Kelli Ward 38.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 48.0	poll arch
6/21/2018	Marist College	1.00	—(D+2.4)	839	±4.5	unknown	bias D+2.4pt2880d old+1 bias D+2.4pt Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt. 2880d old Poll was fielded 2880 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Joe Arpaio 32.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 57.0	poll arch
4/23/2018	SurveyMonkey/Axios	1.00	—	1667	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls2939d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2939d old Poll was fielded 2939 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: Axios Commissioned by Axios, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. n=1,667 Sample size of 1,667 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Martha McSally 42.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 51.0	poll arch
4/23/2018	SurveyMonkey/Axios	1.00	—	1667	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls2939d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2939d old Poll was fielded 2939 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: Axios Commissioned by Axios, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. n=1,667 Sample size of 1,667 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Kelli Ward 43.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 51.0	poll arch
4/23/2018	SurveyMonkey/Axios	1.00	—	1667	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls2939d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2939d old Poll was fielded 2939 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: Axios Commissioned by Axios, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. n=1,667 Sample size of 1,667 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Joe Arpaio 32.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 61.0	poll arch
4/11/2018	OH Predictive Insights	1.01	—(R+1.6)	600	±4.0	unknown	2951d oldtracks editorial consensus 2951d old Poll was fielded 2951 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Martha McSally 42.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 48.0	poll arch
4/11/2018	OH Predictive Insights	1.01	—(R+1.6)	600	±4.0	unknown	2951d oldtracks editorial consensus 2951d old Poll was fielded 2951 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Kelli Ward 40.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 50.0	poll arch
4/11/2018	OH Predictive Insights	1.01	—(R+1.6)	600	±4.0	unknown	2951d oldtracks editorial consensus 2951d old Poll was fielded 2951 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Joe Arpaio 33.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 59.0	poll arch
3/16/2018	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	547	±4.2	unknown	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned2977d old+2 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. 2977d old Poll was fielded 2977 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Martha McSally 41.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 46.0	poll arch
11/9/2017	OH Predictive Insights	1.01	—(R+1.6)	600	±4.0	unknown	3104d oldtracks editorial consensus 3104d old Poll was fielded 3104 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Martha McSally 45.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 46.0	poll arch
11/9/2017	OH Predictive Insights	1.01	—(R+1.6)	600	±4.0	unknown	3104d oldtracks editorial consensus 3104d old Poll was fielded 3104 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Kelli Ward 43.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 46.0	poll arch
10/31/2017	Revily	1.00	R	850	±3.4	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3113d old Poll was fielded 3113 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Martha McSally 29.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 33.0	poll arch
10/31/2017	Revily (R-Ward)	1.00	—	850	±3.4	unknown	no scored polls3113d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3113d old Poll was fielded 3113 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kelli Ward 34.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 33.0	poll arch
10/31/2017	Revily (R-Ward)	1.00	—	850	±3.4	unknown	no scored polls3113d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3113d old Poll was fielded 3113 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Matt Salmon 30.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 32.0	poll arch
10/26/2017	HighGround Public Affairs	0.68	—(R+0.9)	500	±4.4	unknown	3 scored polls3118d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3118d old Poll was fielded 3118 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kelli Ward 27.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 34.0	poll arch
9/7/2017	GBA Strategies	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls3167d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3167d old Poll was fielded 3167 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Jeff Flake 40.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 47.0	poll arch
8/19/2017	HighGround Public Affairs	0.68	—(R+0.9)	400	±4.9	unknown	3 scored polls3186d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3186d old Poll was fielded 3186 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kelli Ward 31.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 32.0	poll arch
8/19/2017	HighGround Public Affairs	0.68	—(R+0.9)	400	±4.9	unknown	3 scored polls3186d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3186d old Poll was fielded 3186 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Jeff Flake 33.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 41.0	poll arch
8/1/2017	Public Policy Polling (D-Our Lives on the Line)	1.00	—	704	±2.0	unknown	no scored polls3204d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3204d old Poll was fielded 3204 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Jeff Flake 31.0	poll arch
5/15/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	896	±3.3	unknown	3647d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3647d old Poll was fielded 3647 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Jeff Flake 38.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 36.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 70 total

Kyrsten Sinema (D)

70 endorsements · source

Elected officials (37)

Amy Klobuchar — U.S. senator (D-MN) [ 130 ]
Andrea Dalessandro — state senator [ 139 ]
Anna Tovar — mayor of Tolleson [ 139 ]
Catherine Cortez Masto — U.S. senator (D-NV) [ 123 ]
Chris Murphy — U.S. Senator (D-CT) [ 133 ]
Chuck Schumer — U.S. senator (D-NY) and Senate Minority Leader [ 136 ]
Cory Booker — U.S. senator (D-NJ) [ 122 ]
Daniel Hernández Jr. — state representative [ 139 ]
Dennis DeConcini — former U.S. senator (D-AZ) [ 124 ]
Dick Durbin — U.S. senator (D-IL) and Senate Minority Whip [ 126 ]
Flagstaff — ns, Mayor of Flagstaff [ 142 ]
Gary Peters — U.S. Senator (D-MI) [ 135 ]
Harry Mitchell — former U.S. representative (D-AZ) [ 124 ]
Jason Kander — former Missouri Secretary of State , nominee for U.S Senate in Missouri in 2016 , host of podcast Majority 54 and founder of Let America Vote [ 144 ]
Jeff Merkley — U.S. senator (D-OR) [ 132 ]
Jenny Wilson — Salt Lake County Councilwoman; candidate for U.S. Senate in Utah (D-UT) [ 145 ]
Joe Biden — 47th Vice President of the United States and former U.S. Senator (D-DE) [ 121 ]
Joe Kennedy III — U.S. representative (D-MA) [ 140 ]
Jon Favreau — co-host of progressive political podcast Pod Save America and former chief White House speechwriter for President Barack Obama [ 143 ]
Jonathan Rothschild — mayor of Tucson [ 139 ]
Kamala Harris — U.S. senator (D-CA) [ 128 ]
Katie Hobbs — state senator and Senate minority leader [ 139 ]
Kelli Butler — state representative [ 124 ]
Kirsten Gillibrand — U.S. senator (D-NY) [ 127 ]
Lela Alston — state representative [ 139 ]
Mazie Hirono — U.S. senator (D-HI) [ 129 ]
Patrick Leahy — U.S. senator (D-VT) [ 131 ]
Patty Murray — U.S. senator (D-WA) [ 134 ]
Randy Friese — state representative and assistant house minority leader [ 110 ]
Rebecca Rios — state representative and house minority leader [ 139 ]
Robert Meza — state senator [ 139 ]
Ron Barber — former U.S. representative (D-AZ) [ 138 ]
Ron Wyden — U.S. senator (D-OR) [ 137 ]
Ruben Gallego — U.S. representative (D-AZ) [ 139 ]
Tammy Duckworth — U.S. senator (D-IL) [ 125 ]
Tempe — Mitchell, mayor of Tempe [ 139 ]
Tom O'Halleran — U.S. representative (D-AZ) [ 141 ]

Organizations / unions (12)

AFL–CIO — State AFL–CIO [ 148 ]
Building and Construction Trades Council — Council [ 146 ]
Communications Workers of America — [ 149 ]
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee — [ 155 ]
Equality PAC — [ 158 ]
International Association of Sheet Metal, Air, Rail and Transportation Workers — Local 359 [ 150 ]
League of Conservation Voters — Action Fund [ 161 ]
National Education Association — [ 151 ]
Planned Parenthood Action Fund — [ 166 ]
United Food and Commercial Workers — Local 99 [ 152 ]
United Mine Workers of America — [ 153 ]
[ 147 ] — Education Association [ 147 ]

Other (21)

60 — 70%
70 — 80%
80 — 90%
Alliance4Action — [ 115 ] [ 116 ]
Chandler — Chamber of Commerce [ 154 ]
EMILY's List — [ 156 ]
End Citizens United — [ 157 ]
Gay & Lesbian Victory Fund — [ 159 ]
Human Rights Campaign — [ 160 ]
Justice Democrats — [ 117 ]
LPAC — [ 163 ]
Let America Vote — [ 162 ]
Lynne Pancrazi — Yuma County supervisor [ 124 ]
Mesa — cisco Heredia, Mesa city councilmember [ 139 ]
National Organization for Women — [ 165 ]
Phoenix City Councilmember — Councilmember [ 139 ]
Stonewall Democrats — of Arizona [ 167 ]
The People for Bernie Sanders — [ 118 ]
Vote Pro Choice — [ 115 ] [ 120 ]
[ 115 ] — sive Democrats of America [ 115 ] [ 119 ]
[ 139 ] — varro, Tempe city councilmember [ 139 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

5 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Tossup	Oct 26	—	0.0	—
FiveThirtyEight	Lean D	Nov 6	—	+3.5	—
Inside Elections	Tilt D	Nov 1	—	+1.3	—
RealClearPolitics	Tossup	Nov 5	—	0.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean D	Nov 5	—	+3.5	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 91 months ago (11/5/2018) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Tilt R via pvi