Pollster · 136 of 1769
Morning Consult
Polls scored
22
Mean error
5.3 pt
Signed bias
D+4.23
Aggregation weight
0.71
Composite quality score
0–100 · weighted of 5 measured components65
of 100 · tier · strong
Strong on the components we measure; one or two areas pull the composite below the elite threshold.
Pollster vs editorial consensus
alignedAcross 62 graded races, Morning Consult's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of +1.8pp. That's well-aligned with the consensus — useful as a sanity check, less useful as a contrarian signal.
Mean delta
+1.8pp
Median delta
+1.5pp
Std-dev
5.3pp
N graded
62
Recent activity
Total all time
185
Last 30d
0
Last 90d
0
Last 180d
0
Per-cycle debrief appearances
| Cycle | Rank | Polls | MAE | Signed bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | #22 / 26 | 16 | 5.85 pt | D+5.25 pp |
| 2020 | #11 / 20 | 14 | 5.41 pt | D+5.04 pp |
Recent polls
- 10/31/2024North Carolina · Governor · 2024Josh Stein 52.0 · Mark Robinson 36.0
- 10/31/2024Arizona · Senate · 2024Ruben Gallego 50.0 · Kari Lake 42.0
- 10/31/2024Florida · Senate · 2024Rick Scott 48.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 45.0
- 10/31/2024Michigan · Senate · 2024Elissa Slotkin 49.0 · Mike Rogers 41.0
- 10/31/2024Ohio · Senate · 2024Sherrod Brown 46.0 · Bernie Moreno 47.0
- 10/31/2024Pennsylvania · Senate · 2024Bob Casey Jr. 46.0 · Dave McCormick 43.0
- 10/31/2024Wisconsin · Senate · 2024Tammy Baldwin 49.0 · Eric Hovde 47.0
- 10/30/2024Texas · Senate · 2024Ted Cruz 47.0 · Colin Allred 44.0
- 10/29/2024Maryland · Senate · 2024Angela Alsobrooks 49.0 · Larry Hogan 42.0
- 10/14/2024North Carolina · Governor · 2024Josh Stein 54.0 · Mark Robinson 32.0