Races · Senate · 2024 · FL

Senate · class II · open seat

Debbie Mucarsel- Powell vs Rick Scott

← DE Senate HI Senate →

Tilt R — · 47 polls · 0 markets Last poll 553d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 47 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Tilt R

tilt-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Show poll dots95% CI bandOverlay all methods|Toggle:

All polls · 47 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:47 of 47 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/3/2024	Research Co.	1.01	—(D+1.5)	450	—	LV	553d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 553d old Poll was fielded 553 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias D+1.5pt Across 49 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.5pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 53 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 50.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 43.0	poll arch
11/2/2024	Victory Insights	0.55	L(D+4.0)	400	—	LV	554d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+2 554d old Poll was fielded 554 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 7 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Rick Scott 51.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 47.0	poll arch
11/1/2024	Stetson University	1.00	—	452	—	LV	no scored polls555d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 555d old Poll was fielded 555 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Rick Scott 53.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 45.0	poll arch
11/1/2024	Morning Consult	1.00	—(D+5.0)	2022	—	LV	historical bias D+5.0pt555d old+4 historical bias D+5.0pt Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. 555d old Poll was fielded 555 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. n=2,022 Sample size of 2,022 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 48.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 45.0	poll arch
10/28/2024	Cygnal	1.04	R(D+1.8)	600	—	LV	559d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 559d old Poll was fielded 559 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 72 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 49.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 45.0	poll arch
10/27/2024	Mainstreet Research/FAU	0.85	—(D+4.7)	897	—	LV	4 scored polls560d old+3 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 560d old Poll was fielded 560 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 50.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 46.0	poll arch
10/27/2024	ActiVote	1.01	L(D+3.9)	400	—	LV	historical bias D+3.9pt560d old+3 historical bias D+3.9pt Across 26 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.9pt — a measurable house effect. 560d old Poll was fielded 560 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 47 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 55.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 45.0	poll arch
10/25/2024	St. Pete Polls	1.44	L(D+2.2)	1227	—	LV	bias D+2.2pt562d old+3 bias D+2.2pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.2pt. 562d old Poll was fielded 562 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 49.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 46.0	poll arch
10/20/2024	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	860	—	LV	567d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 567d old Poll was fielded 567 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Rick Scott 53.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 47.0	poll arch
10/20/2024	Cherry Communications	0.63	—(D+3.8)	614	—	LV	3 scored polls567d old+3 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 567d old Poll was fielded 567 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 7 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Rick Scott 51.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 45.0	poll arch
10/20/2024	ActiVote	1.01	L(D+3.9)	400	—	LV	historical bias D+3.9pt567d old+3 historical bias D+3.9pt Across 26 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.9pt — a measurable house effect. 567d old Poll was fielded 567 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 47 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 52.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 48.0	poll arch
10/18/2024	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	1.00	—(D+5.3)	1275	—	LV	569d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 569d old Poll was fielded 569 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 45.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 42.0	poll arch
10/18/2024	University of North Florida	0.81	L(D+5.0)	977	—	LV	569d oldD+8.6pt vs editors+2 569d old Poll was fielded 569 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+8.6pt vs editors Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 8.6pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Rick Scott 49.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 46.0	poll arch
10/17/2024	RMG Research	0.60	L(D+6.6)	788	—	LV	570d old✓ verified 5d ago+1 570d old Poll was fielded 570 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Rick Scott 51.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 43.0	poll arch
10/17/2024	YouGov	1.00	—(D+3.7)	1094	—	RV	historical bias D+3.7pt570d old+2 historical bias D+3.7pt Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. 570d old Poll was fielded 570 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Rick Scott 49.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 45.0	poll arch
10/14/2024	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	1.00	—(D+5.3)	1009	—	LV	573d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 573d old Poll was fielded 573 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 45.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 42.0	poll arch
10/7/2024	Marist College	1.00	—(D+2.4)	1257	—	LV	bias D+2.4pt580d old+3 bias D+2.4pt Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt. 580d old Poll was fielded 580 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 50.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 48.0	poll arch
10/6/2024	New York Times/Siena College	0.98	L(D+4.1)	622	—	LV	581d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 581d old Poll was fielded 581 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. newspaper-sponsored: The New York Times Commissioned by The New York Times, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. tracks editorial consensus Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 49.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 40.0	poll arch
10/4/2024	Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy	1.00	—	625	—	RV	no scored polls583d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 583d old Poll was fielded 583 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. TV-network-sponsored: NBC 6 South Florida Commissioned by NBC 6 South Florida, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Rick Scott 48.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 41.0	poll arch
10/2/2024	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	1.00	—(D+5.3)	2946	—	LV	585d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 585d old Poll was fielded 585 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. n=2,946 Sample size of 2,946 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.8pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 44.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 41.0	poll arch
9/27/2024	RMG Research	0.60	L(D+6.6)	774	—	LV	590d old✓ verified 5d ago+1 590d old Poll was fielded 590 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Rick Scott 48.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 43.0	poll arch
9/26/2024	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	808	—	RV	591d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+3 591d old Poll was fielded 591 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Scott 47.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 44.0	poll arch
9/25/2024	McLaughlin & Associates	1.00	—	1200	—	LV	no scored polls592d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 592d old Poll was fielded 592 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 11 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Rick Scott 51.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 44.0	poll arch
9/25/2024	Victory Insights	0.55	L(D+4.0)	600	—	LV	592d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+2 592d old Poll was fielded 592 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 7 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Rick Scott 45.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 44.0	poll arch
9/23/2024	The Bullfinch Group	0.63	—(D+6.3)	600	—	RV	3 scored polls594d old+3 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 594d old Poll was fielded 594 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+6.6pt vs editors Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 6.6pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Rick Scott 46.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 44.0	poll arch
9/22/2024	ActiVote	1.01	L(D+3.9)	400	—	LV	historical bias D+3.9pt595d old+3 historical bias D+3.9pt Across 26 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.9pt — a measurable house effect. 595d old Poll was fielded 595 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 47 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 54.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 46.0	poll arch
9/19/2024	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	1.00	—(D+5.3)	1602	—	LV	598d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 598d old Poll was fielded 598 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. n=1,602 Sample size of 1,602 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 45.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 41.0	poll arch
9/18/2024	Morning Consult	1.00	—(D+5.0)	2948	—	LV	historical bias D+5.0pt599d old+4 historical bias D+5.0pt Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. 599d old Poll was fielded 599 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. n=2,948 Sample size of 2,948 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.8pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 46.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 42.0	poll arch
9/8/2024	Morning Consult	1.00	—(D+5.0)	3182	—	LV	historical bias D+5.0pt609d old+4 historical bias D+5.0pt Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. 609d old Poll was fielded 609 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. n=3,182 Sample size of 3,182 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.7pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 47.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 42.0	poll arch
9/5/2024	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	815	—	LV	612d old✓ verified 5d ago+4 612d old Poll was fielded 612 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. university-sponsored: New Emerson College Polling Commissioned by New Emerson College Polling, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Rick Scott 46.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 45.0	poll arch
8/28/2024	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	1.00	—(D+5.3)	850	—	LV	620d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 620d old Poll was fielded 620 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 43.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 40.0	poll arch
8/26/2024	Cherry Communications	0.63	—(D+3.8)	600	—	LV	3 scored polls622d old+3 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 622d old Poll was fielded 622 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 7 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Rick Scott 51.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 44.0	poll arch
8/22/2024	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	837	—	RV	626d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+3 626d old Poll was fielded 626 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Scott 48.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 45.0	poll arch
8/11/2024	Mainstreet Research/FAU	0.85	—(D+4.7)	1055	—	RV	4 scored polls637d old+3 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 637d old Poll was fielded 637 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 47.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 43.0	poll arch
8/8/2024	McLaughlin & Associates	1.00	—	800	—	LV	no scored polls640d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 640d old Poll was fielded 640 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 11 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Rick Scott 52.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 42.0	poll arch
7/27/2024	University of North Florida	0.81	L(D+5.0)	774	—	LV	652d oldD+8.6pt vs editors+2 652d old Poll was fielded 652 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+8.6pt vs editors Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 8.6pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Rick Scott 47.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 43.0	poll arch
7/24/2024	Targoz Market Research	0.77	—(R+1.0)	1200	—	RV	655d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3 655d old Poll was fielded 655 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 26 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. bias R+1.0pt Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+1.0pt.	Rick Scott 47.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 41.0	poll arch
6/9/2024	Mainstreet Research/FAU	0.85	—(D+4.7)	883	—	A	4 scored pollsadult sample+3 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. adult sample Adult-population sample (no voter screen) — useful for general public opinion but not directly comparable to LV polls for predicting elections. 700d old Poll was fielded 700 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. tracks editorial consensus Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 44.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 40.0	poll arch
6/9/2024	The Tyson Group	1.00	R	1050	—	LV	no scored polls700d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 700d old Poll was fielded 700 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Rick Scott 46.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 33.0	poll arch
5/16/2024	CBS News/YouGov	0.92	L(D+3.4)	1209	—	RV	historical bias D+3.4pt724d old+4 historical bias D+3.4pt Across 16 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 724d old Poll was fielded 724 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. TV-network-sponsored: CBS News Commissioned by CBS News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. tracks editorial consensus Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 45.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 37.0	poll arch
5/7/2024	Cherry Communications	0.63	—(D+3.8)	609	—	RV	3 scored polls733d old+3 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 733d old Poll was fielded 733 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 7 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Rick Scott 54.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 39.0	poll arch
4/17/2024	Mainstreet Research/FAU	0.85	—(D+4.7)	865	—	RV	4 scored polls753d old+3 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 753d old Poll was fielded 753 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 52.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 35.0	poll arch
4/7/2024	USA Today/Ipsos	1.00	—	1014	—	A	flagged on verificationno scored polls+2 flagged on verification Automated verification flagged this poll: results sum to 62.0% (expected ~100; n=2 cands, floor=70). Either the scrape misread the source table or the source itself looks unusual. Cross-check the citation URL before relying on this row. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. adult sample Adult-population sample (no voter screen) — useful for general public opinion but not directly comparable to LV polls for predicting elections. 763d old Poll was fielded 763 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Scott 36.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 26.0	poll arch
4/7/2024	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	608	—	LV	763d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 763d old Poll was fielded 763 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Rick Scott 45.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 38.0	poll arch
3/1/2024	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	790	—	unknown	800d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2 800d old Poll was fielded 800 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Scott 44.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 41.0	poll arch
7/10/2023	Global Strategy Group	1.00	—	1000	—	LV	no scored polls1035d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1035d old Poll was fielded 1035 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 31 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Rick Scott 43.0 · Debbie Mucarsel- Powell 44.0	poll arch
6/29/2023	Change Research	0.61	L(D+3.7)	1298	—	LV	historical bias D+3.7pt1046d old+3 historical bias D+3.7pt Across 18 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. 1046d old Poll was fielded 1046 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 30 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Rick Scott 45.0 · Phil Ehr 41.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 28 total

Rick Scott (R)

28 endorsements · source

Elected officials (9)

Ashley Moody — Florida attorney general (2019–2025) [ 19 ]
Donald Trump — 45th president of the United States (2017–2021) [ 15 ]
Keren Riquelme — member of the Senate of Puerto Rico [ 18 ]
Luis Fortuño — former governor of Puerto Rico (2009–2013) [ 18 ]
Marco Rubio — U.S. senator from Florida (2011–2025) [ 17 ]
Mike Pompeo — U.S. Secretary of State (2018–2021), Director of the CIA (2017–2018), and U.S. representative for Kansas's 4th congressional district (2011–2017) [ 14 ]
Norm Coleman — former U.S. senator from Minnesota (2003–2009) [ 16 ]
Pam Bondi — former Florida attorney general (2011–2019) [ 19 ]
Senate Conservatives Fund — [ 32 ]

Organizations / unions (8)

60 Plus Association — [ 24 ]
American Israel Public Affairs Committee — (AIPAC) [ 25 ]
Florida Association of Realtors — [ 28 ]
Florida Police Chiefs Association — [ 29 ]
National Association of Home Builders — [ 30 ]
National Federation of Independent Business — [ 31 ]
Republican Jewish Coalition — [ 16 ]
Republican Liberty Caucus — [ 12 ]

Other (11)

70 — 80%
80 — 90%
Associated Builders and Contractors — of Florida [ 26 ]
Club for Growth — [ 27 ]
John Bolton — United States National Security Advisor (2018–2019), United States Ambassador to the United Nations (2005–2006) [ 13 ]
Wilton Simpson — Florida Commissioner of Agriculture (2023–present) [ 20 ]
[ 17 ] — ublican U.S. representatives from Florida [ 17 ]
[ 19 ] — te attorneys [ 19 ]
[ 21 ] — te legislators [ 21 ] [ 18 ]
[ 22 ] — nty sheriffs [ 22 ]
[ 23 ] — unty commissioners [ 23 ]

Money in this race

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-31

Total IE spending

$37.0M

For candidates

$4.5M

Against candidates

$32.6M

Latest filing: 12/31/2024
Source: FEC Schedule E

Debbie Mucarsel- Powell (D)

$1.3M for · $27.0M against

Cash on hand

$-25277

Total raised (cycle)

$36.6M

Total spent

$36.6M

Debts

$57K

Source: FEC

$26.8M against PROJECT RESCUE AMERICA Super PAC
$450K for NUESTRO PAC Super PAC
$349K for FLORIDA FREEDOM PAC Super PAC
$224K against RED SENATE Super PAC
$187K for ENGAGE MIAMI PAC

Rick Scott (R)

$3.2M for · $5.5M against

Cash on hand

$798K

Total raised (cycle)

$36.7M

Total spent

$39.9M

Debts

$24.1M

Source: FEC

$5.5M against WINSENATE Super PAC
$1.9M for NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE PAC
$695K for SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND PAC
$266K for ASSOCIATED BUILDERS AND CONTRACTORS, INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (ABC PAC) PAC
$156K for SENATE CONSERVATIVES ACTION Super PAC

Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

9 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
CNalysis	Likely R	Sep 26	—	-9.0	—
The Cook Political Report	Likely R	Nov 9	—	-9.0	—
Decision Desk HQ / The Hill	Lean R	Aug 26	—	-3.5	—
Elections Daily	Likely R	May 4	—	-9.0	—
538	Likely R	Oct 23	—	-9.0	—
Inside Elections	Likely R	Sep 26	—	-9.0	—
RealClearPolitics	Lean R	Oct 15	—	-3.5	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Likely R	Nov 9	—	-9.0	—
Split Ticket	Lean R	Oct 23	—	-3.5	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 18 months ago (11/3/2024) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (3 changes)

5/3/2026 Tilt R via pvi held 574d
10/6/2024 Lean R R+4.5 via polls held 90d
7/8/2024 Likely R R+9.6 via polls