Races · Senate · 2024 · Florida
Senate · class I · open seat
Debbie Mucarsel- Powell vs Rick Scott
Where this race stands
VerifiedTilt R · model 92% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+3) suggests Tilt R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+8.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+20.4 (10th pctile) to D+3.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 92% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · tilt-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +8.4
80% CI: R +20.4 → D +3.6 · win prob 8%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
| Polls used | 46 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+12.8 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 46 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 24 | Research Co.+1For · Research Co. | 450 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +1.450 tracked | -0.7aligned | 43 · 50 |
| Nov 1, 24 | Victory Insights | 400 · LV | D-LEAN | D +4.05 tracked | +1.0noisy | 47 · 51 |
| Oct 31, 24 | Stetson University+1For · Stetson Today | 452 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +15.9decoupled | 45 · 53 |
| Oct 31, 24 | Morning Consult+2For · Morning Consult | 2,022 · LV | D-LEAN | D +5.230 tracked | +1.8aligned | 45 · 48 |
| Oct 27, 24 | Cygnal | 600 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +1.954 tracked | +1.2aligned | 45 · 49 |
| Oct 26, 24 | Mainstreet Research/FAU+1 | 897 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +4.74 tracked | +0.6aligned | 46 · 50 |
| Oct 26, 24 | ActiVote+1For · ActiVote | 400 · LV | D-LEAN | D +3.926 tracked | +1.0aligned | 45 · 55 |
| Oct 24, 24 | St. Pete Polls+1For · Florida Politics - Campaigns & Elections. Lobbying & Government | 1,227 · LV | D-LEAN | D +2.212 tracked | 0.0aligned | 46 · 49 |
| Oct 19, 24 | Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling | 860 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.7118 tracked | +0.8aligned | 47 · 53 |
| Oct 19, 24 | Cherry Communications+1For · Florida Chamber of Commerce | 614 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +3.83 tracked | +9.7decoupled | 45 · 51 |
Endorsements · 21 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet21
Endorsements tracked
Debbie Mucarsel- Powell0 · 0%
Rick Scott21 · 100%
Total21
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RRick Scott21 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)
Elected officials9
Federal 3State 4Local 0
Elected officials · 9
- Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)
- Luis Fortuño · former governor of Puerto Rico (2009–2013)
- Marco Rubio · U.S. senator from Florida (2011–2025)
- Norm Coleman · former U.S. senator from Minnesota (2003–2009)
- Ashley Moody · Florida attorney general (2019–2025)
- Pam Bondi · former Florida attorney general (2011–2019)
- Mike Pompeo · U.S. Secretary of State (2018–2021), Director of the CIA (2017–2018), and U.S. representative for Kansas's 4th congressional district (2011–2017)
- Keren Riquelme · member of the Senate of Puerto Rico
- Senate Conservatives Fund
Organizations8
Organizations · 8
- 60 Plus Association
- American Israel Public Affairs Committee · (AIPAC)
- Florida Association of Realtors
- Florida Police Chiefs Association
- National Association of Home Builders
- National Federation of Independent Business
- Republican Jewish Coalition
- Republican Liberty Caucus
Other4
Other · 4
- Associated Builders and Contractors · of Florida
- Club for Growth
- John Bolton · United States National Security Advisor (2018–2019), United States Ambassador to the United Nations (2005–2006)
- Wilton Simpson · Florida Commissioner of Agriculture (2023–present)
DDebbie Mucarsel- Powell0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-31Debbie Mucarsel- PowellS4FL00611 ↗
Receipts
$36.6M
Disburse
$36.6M
Cash on hand
$-25,277.31
Debts
$56.8K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Rick ScottS8FL00273 ↗
Receipts
$36.7M
Disburse
$39.9M
Cash on hand
$798.4K
Debts
$24.1M
Top industries
Securities & investment$37.8K
Securities & investment · $37.8K
- Apollo Global Management · $37.8K
Individuals $37.8K · PACs $0
Top contributors
INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS$125.7K
THE VILLAGES$62.0K
HERZOG$42.9K
T & D CONCRETE$39.6K
APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT$37.8K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$37.0M
D side
$6.8M · 18%
R side
$30.2M · 82%
Top spender
PROJECT RESCUE AMERICA
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PROJECT RESCUE AMERICA super pac · boosts R
| R | $26.8M | 72% | against Debbie Mucarsel- Powell |
| WINSENATE super pac · boosts D
| D | $5.5M | 15% | against Rick Scott |
| NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE pac · boosts R
| R | $1.9M | 5% | for Rick Scott |
| SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $695.4K | 2% | for Rick Scott |
| NUESTRO PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $450.0K | 1% | for Debbie Mucarsel- Powell |
| FLORIDA FREEDOM PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $349.3K | 1% | for Debbie Mucarsel- Powell |
| ASSOCIATED BUILDERS AND CONTRACTORS, INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (ABC PAC) pac · boosts R
| R | $265.5K | 1% | for Rick Scott |
| RED SENATE super pac · boosts R
| R | $223.7K | 1% | against Debbie Mucarsel- Powell |
| ENGAGE MIAMI pac · boosts D
| D | $187.4K | 1% | for Debbie Mucarsel- Powell |
| SENATE CONSERVATIVES ACTION super pac · boosts R
| R | $156.5K | 0% | for Rick Scott |
Editorial ratings · 9 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Lean R3
Lean R · 3 raters
- Decision Desk HQ / The Hill · Aug 25
- RealClearPolitics · Oct 14
- Split Ticket · Oct 22
Likely R6
Likely R · 6 raters
- CNalysis · Sep 25
- The Cook Political Report · Nov 8
- Elections Daily · May 3
- 538 · Oct 22
- Inside Elections · Sep 25
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Nov 8
CNalysis
Likely RThe Cook Political Report
Likely RDecision Desk HQ / The Hill
Lean RElections Daily
Likely R538
Likely RInside Elections
Likely RRealClearPolitics
Lean RSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely RSplit Ticket
Lean RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified45 / 46deterministic
Polls flagged1needs review
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-12-31
Endorsements21 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks