Pollster · 3 of 1769

Data for Progress

GRADE CWEIGHT TIER T3NEUTRAL LEAN★ AAPOR TI MEMBER</> Embed

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Polls scored

Mean error

5.0 pt

Signed bias

D+1.52

Aggregation weight

1.00

Pollster vs prediction market

From 220 race-polls · 6 matched markets

Pre-poll P(D) (avg)

23.1%

Market price the day before each poll dropped

Post-poll market shift

+0.0 pt

Average move within 24h of release (D+ = market moved toward D)

Market alignment

+6.5 pt

Net direction markets moved toward Data for Progress's read

Composite quality score

0–100 · weighted of 5 measured components

of 100 · tier · strong

Strong on the components we measure; one or two areas pull the composite below the elite threshold.

Aggregator weight50

Verification rate61

Sample size median97

Citation rate68

Outlier rate (inv.)not yet measured

Rater alignment94

Pollster vs editorial consensus

aligned

Across 75 graded races, Data for Progress's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of +0.8pp. That's well-aligned with the consensus — useful as a sanity check, less useful as a contrarian signal.

Mean delta

+0.8pp

Median delta

+1.0pp

Std-dev

5.4pp

N graded

Sample races (links to detail):

us-senate-2024-az us-senate-2024-nv us-senate-2024-pa

Recent activity

Total all time

220

Last 30d

Last 90d

Last 180d

Last poll 6/8/2026 (28d ago)· status active

Per-cycle debrief appearances

Cycle	Rank	Polls	MAE	Signed bias
2024	#14 / 26	3	4.05 pt	D+4.05 pp
2022	#20 / 36	33	3.99 pt	R+1.46 pp
2020	#14 / 20	15	6.30 pt	D+6.26 pp

Recent polls