Races · house · 2026 · California
house · open seat
Jasmeet Bains vs David Valadao
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 13d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 54% D · market gap 24pp
Polling average rates this race Safe R (R+23.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+1.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+14.9 (10th pctile) to D+17.3 (90th pctile), giving D a 54% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 100/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
⚠ Model and market disagree sharply. Model says D wins at 54%, market says 78% — 24pp gap. Either side could be wrong — worth a closer look.
CITATIONS · safe-r · low-tipping · uncertainty-high · market-disagreement-large
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
100
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement61
12.2pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution61 / 100
Measured12.2pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +1.2
80% CI: R +14.9 → D +17.3 · win prob 54%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 3 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +9.1
80% CI R +22.2 → R +7.3
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +11.0
80% CI R +14.4 → R +7.5
CV MAE 2.66
consensusMarket-implied
D +7.0
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 78¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 58 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 78% · polls 20%.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
1 polls · through Aug 8, 2025 · latest Public Policy Polling
David Valadao
VoteHub42.0%
VoteHub
Polling average42.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg44.6%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average44.6%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 2.6 pt below our average
Jasmeet Bains
VoteHub42.0%
VoteHub
Polling average42.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg20.4%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average20.4%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 21.6 pt above our average
VoteHub's independent average across 1 polls (through Aug 8, 2025): David Valadao 42.0%, Jasmeet Bains 42.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 3 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 5, 26 | Data for Progress+2For · Progress (D) | 517 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +1.151 tracked | +0.8aligned | 21 · 44 |
| Aug 7, 25 | Public Policy Polling+1For · Internal D-aligned | 547 · unknown | NEUTRAL | D +0.9104 tracked | +2.4noisy | 42 · 42 |
| Aug 7, 25 | Public Policy Polling+1For · Internal D-aligned | 547 · unknown | NEUTRAL | D +0.9104 tracked | +2.4noisy | 37 |
Endorsements · 95 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet50
6
Endorsements tracked
Randy Villegas50 · 89%
David Valadao6 · 11%
Total56
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DRandy Villegas50 endorsers
Most notable · David Hogg · former vice chair of the Democratic National Committee (2025)
Organizations24
Organizations · 24
- American Priorities
- California Environmental Voters
- California Teachers Association
- Center for Biological Diversity · Action Fund
- Congressional Hispanic Caucus · BOLD PAC
- Congressional Progressive Caucus · PAC
- Courage California
- Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
- End Citizens United
- Giffords
- Latino Victory Fund
- Leaders We Deserve
- National Education Association
- National Nurses United
- Our Revolution
- Patriotic Millionaires
- Peace Action
- People for the American Way
- Progressive Change Campaign Committee
- Progressive Democrats of America
- Showing Up for Racial Justice
- Track AIPAC
- United Auto Workers
- Working Families Party · ilies Party
Elected officials23
Federal 22State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 23
- David Hogg · former vice chair of the Democratic National Committee (2025)
- Nancy Pelosi · former speaker of the House (2007–2011, 2019–2023) from CA-11 (1987–present)
- Adelita Grijalva · AZ-07 (2025–present)
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez · NY-14 (2019–present)
- Chris Deluzio · PA-17 (2023–present)
- Delia Ramirez · IL-03 (2023–present)
- Emily Randall · WA-06 (2025–present)
- Greg Casar · TX-35 (2025–present)
- Lateefah Simon · CA-12 (2025–present)
- Linda Sánchez · CA-38 (2003–present)
- Lloyd Doggett · TX-37 (1995–present)
- Maxwell Frost · FL-10 (2023–present)
- Nanette Barragan · CA-44 (2017–present)
- Pete Aguilar · CA-33 (2015–present)
- Pramila Jayapal · WA-07 (2017–present)
- Ro Khanna · CA-17 (2017–present)
- Rob Menendez · NJ-08 (2023–present)
- Robert Garcia · CA-42 (2023–present)
- Zoe Lofgren · CA-18 (1995–present)
- Adam Schiff · California (2024–present)
- Alex Padilla · California (2021–present)
- Bernie Sanders · Vermont (2007–present) (Independent)
- Tony Cardenas · former CA-29 (2013–2025)
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Dolores Huerta · labor leader
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- McClatchy Media · California
Other1
Other · 1
- Citizens Against AIPAC Corruption
DJasmeet Bains39 endorsers
Most notable · Robert Rivas · speaker of the California State Assembly (2023–present) from the AD-29 (2018–present)
Organizations20
Organizations · 20
- 314 Action · Fund
- ASPIRE PAC
- Asian American Action Fund
- Blue Dog PAC
- California Faculty Association
- California Federation of Labor Unions
- Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- EMILYs List
- Elect Democratic Women
- IBEW · Local 428
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters · Joint Council 7
- National Union of Healthcare Workers
- New Democrat Coalition Action Fund
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- SEIU · California
- SEIU United Healthcare Workers West
- United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America
- United Nurses Association of California
- WelcomePAC
Elected officials17
Federal 14State 3Local 0
Elected officials · 17
- Robert Rivas · speaker of the California State Assembly (2023–present) from the AD-29 (2018–present)
- Eleni Kounalakis · lieutenant governor of California (2019–present) and former U.S. ambassador to Hungary (2011–2013)
- Melissa Hurtado · state senator from SD-16 (2018–present)
- Adam Gray · CA-13 (2025–present)
- Ami Bera · CA-06 (2013–present)
- Dave Min · CA-47 (2025–present)
- Grace Meng · NY-06 (2013–present)
- Greg Stanton · AZ-04 (2019–present)
- Judy Chu · CA-28 (2009–present)
- Julia Brownley · CA-26 (2013–present)
- Laura Friedman · CA-30 (2025–present)
- Luz Rivas · CA-29 (2025–present)
- Marilyn Strickland · WA-10 (2021–present)
- Mike Thompson · CA-04 (1999–present)
- Norma Torres · CA-35 (2015–present)
- Suzan DelBene · WA-01 (2012–present)
- Zoe Lofgren · CA-18 (1995–present)
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- The Bakersfield Californian
Other1
Other · 1
- DCCC · Red to Blue
RDavid Valadao6 endorsers
Most notable · Mike Johnson · speaker of the House (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present)
Organizations4
Organizations · 4
- California Republican Party
- ClearPath Foundation
- Log Cabin Republicans
- Republican Jewish Coalition
Elected officials2
Federal 1State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 2
- Mike Johnson · speaker of the House (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present)
- Carl DeMaio · state assemblymember from the 75th district (2024–present)
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-16Jasmeet BainsH6CA22208 ↗
Receipts
$1.3M
Disburse
$943.0K
Cash on hand
$359.8K
Debts
$23.4K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Randy VillegasH6CA22190 ↗
Receipts
$1.7M
Disburse
$1.4M
Cash on hand
$337.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
David ValadaoH2CA20094 ↗
Receipts
$4.2M
Disburse
$1.4M
Cash on hand
$2.9M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$4.5M
D side
$3.3M · 72%
R side
$1.3M · 28%
Top spender
314 Action Fund
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 314 Action Fund super pac · boosts D
| D | $1.2M | 26% | for Jasmeet Bains |
| Project 218 other · boosts D
| D | $999.4K | 22% | for Jasmeet Bains |
| New Democrat Majority other · boosts R
| R | $750.9K | 17% | against Randy Villegas |
| BDA PAC other · boosts R
| R | $600.0K | 13% | against Randy Villegas |
| DMFI PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $500.0K | 11% | against Randy Villegas |
| Leaders We Deserve super pac · boosts D
| D | $450.2K | 10% | for Randy Villegas |
| Working Families Party PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $441.0K | 10% | for Randy Villegas |
| PROGRESSIVE PROMISE super pac · boosts R
| R | $375.0K | 8% | against Jasmeet Bains |
| AMERICAN PRIORITIES (AP) other · boosts R
| R | $330.0K | 7% | against Jasmeet Bains |
| Health Care Saves Lives other · boosts D
| D | $307.4K | 7% | against David Valadao |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Lean D2
Lean D · 2 raters
- The Economist · May 5
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Tossup2
Tossup · 2 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Tilt R1
Tilt R · 1 rater
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
TossupThe Economist
Lean DInside Elections
Tilt RSabato's Crystal Ball
TossupSplit Ticket
Lean DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified3 / 3deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-16
Endorsements95 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks