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Races · house · 2026 · California
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Jim Costa vs Kyle Kirkland

← California houseCalifornia house →
Likely DD +11.2 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 4 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
81% Costa (D)
19% Kirkland (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin D +11.2 · 80% CI R+4.9 → D+27.3 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.8%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 88¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe D · model 81% D

With limited polling, prediction markets imply Safe D (D win prob 88%, market-derived).

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+11.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+4.9 (10th pctile) to D+27.3 (90th pctile), giving D a 81% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +11.2
80% CI: R +4.9 → D +27.3 · win prob 81%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +8.9
80% CI D +5.5 → D +20.3
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +10.5
80% CI D +8.9 → D +12.1
CV MAE 1.24
consensusMarket-implied
D +11.2
no interval
market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 88¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
60¢70¢80¢90¢370 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWJul 2Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Democratic Party win the CA-21 House seat?”
89¢12¢+0¢—+0
Kalshi
“CA-21 House winner?”
88¢15¢+1¢$0K-0

Endorsements · 8 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
8Costa · 100%
DJim Costa8 endorsers
Most notable · Eleni Kounalakis · lieutenant governor of California (2019-present)
Elected officials5
Federal 2State 3Local 0
Organizations3
RKyle Kirkland0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
ILance Kruse0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-03-19
Jim CostaH4CA20082 ↗
Receipts
$1.2M
Disburse
$552.2K
Cash on hand
$818.1K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Kyle KirklandH6CA13199 ↗
Receipts
$311.7K
Disburse
$258.7K
Cash on hand
$53.0K
Debts
$12.2K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Lance KruseOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$1.9K
Disburse
$1.7K
Cash on hand
$160
Debts
$1.9K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$4.8K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$4.8K · 100%
Top spender
THE CONSERVATIVE CA…
For / against split
Against Costa $4.6K
For Kirkland $200
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
THE CONSERVATIVE CAUCUS DBA AMERICANS FOR CONSTITUTIONAL LIBERTYR$4.6K96%against Jim Costa
REFORM LEADERS PACR$2004%for Kyle Kirkland

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D2
Likely D3
Cook Political Report
Likely D
Jun 17
The Economist
Safe D
May 5
Inside Elections
Likely D
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely D
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Safe D
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 5, 2026Likely Dmodel
May 3, 2026Lean Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-03-19
Endorsements8 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks