Democratic primary · June 2, 2026
California house Democratic primary
Field of 2 Democratic candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 13d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Democratic primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
82
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (19.4pp).
Forecast CI width65
19.4pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution65 / 100
Measured19.4pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Democratic primary
primary-struct-v1 · medium confidence · 2 polls + fundamentals1Jasmeet BainsJasmeet Kaur Bains is an American physician and politician serving as a member of the California State Assembly for the 35th district since …
2Randy VillegasThe 2026 United States House of Representatives elections in California will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the 52 U.S. representativ…
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 0 results
Democratic primary pollsNo polls have been published for this primary yet. When pollsters start covering the race, individual polls will be listed here with sample size, lean, and trust signals.
Endorsements · Democratic primary · 89 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yetRandy Villegas · 50Jasmeet Bains · 39
DRandy Villegas50 endorsers
Most notable · David Hogg · former vice chair of the Democratic National Committee (2025)
Organizations24
Organizations · 24
- American Priorities
- California Environmental Voters
- California Teachers Association
- Center for Biological Diversity · Action Fund
- Congressional Hispanic Caucus · BOLD PAC
- Congressional Progressive Caucus · PAC
- Courage California
- Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
- End Citizens United
- Giffords
- Latino Victory Fund
- Leaders We Deserve
- National Education Association
- National Nurses United
- Our Revolution
- Patriotic Millionaires
- Peace Action
- People for the American Way
- Progressive Change Campaign Committee
- Progressive Democrats of America
- Showing Up for Racial Justice
- Track AIPAC
- United Auto Workers
- Working Families Party · ilies Party
Elected officials23
Federal 22State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 23
- David Hogg · former vice chair of the Democratic National Committee (2025)
- Nancy Pelosi · former speaker of the House (2007–2011, 2019–2023) from CA-11 (1987–present)
- Adelita Grijalva · AZ-07 (2025–present)
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez · NY-14 (2019–present)
- Chris Deluzio · PA-17 (2023–present)
- Delia Ramirez · IL-03 (2023–present)
- Emily Randall · WA-06 (2025–present)
- Greg Casar · TX-35 (2025–present)
- Lateefah Simon · CA-12 (2025–present)
- Linda Sánchez · CA-38 (2003–present)
- Lloyd Doggett · TX-37 (1995–present)
- Maxwell Frost · FL-10 (2023–present)
- Nanette Barragan · CA-44 (2017–present)
- Pete Aguilar · CA-33 (2015–present)
- Pramila Jayapal · WA-07 (2017–present)
- Ro Khanna · CA-17 (2017–present)
- Rob Menendez · NJ-08 (2023–present)
- Robert Garcia · CA-42 (2023–present)
- Zoe Lofgren · CA-18 (1995–present)
- Adam Schiff · California (2024–present)
- Alex Padilla · California (2021–present)
- Bernie Sanders · Vermont (2007–present) (Independent)
- Tony Cardenas · former CA-29 (2013–2025)
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Dolores Huerta · labor leader
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- McClatchy Media · California
Other1
Other · 1
- Citizens Against AIPAC Corruption
DJasmeet Bains39 endorsers
Most notable · Robert Rivas · speaker of the California State Assembly (2023–present) from the AD-29 (2018–present)
Organizations20
Organizations · 20
- 314 Action · Fund
- ASPIRE PAC
- Asian American Action Fund
- Blue Dog PAC
- California Faculty Association
- California Federation of Labor Unions
- Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- EMILYs List
- Elect Democratic Women
- IBEW · Local 428
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters · Joint Council 7
- National Union of Healthcare Workers
- New Democrat Coalition Action Fund
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- SEIU · California
- SEIU United Healthcare Workers West
- United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America
- United Nurses Association of California
- WelcomePAC
Elected officials17
Federal 14State 3Local 0
Elected officials · 17
- Robert Rivas · speaker of the California State Assembly (2023–present) from the AD-29 (2018–present)
- Eleni Kounalakis · lieutenant governor of California (2019–present) and former U.S. ambassador to Hungary (2011–2013)
- Melissa Hurtado · state senator from SD-16 (2018–present)
- Adam Gray · CA-13 (2025–present)
- Ami Bera · CA-06 (2013–present)
- Dave Min · CA-47 (2025–present)
- Grace Meng · NY-06 (2013–present)
- Greg Stanton · AZ-04 (2019–present)
- Judy Chu · CA-28 (2009–present)
- Julia Brownley · CA-26 (2013–present)
- Laura Friedman · CA-30 (2025–present)
- Luz Rivas · CA-29 (2025–present)
- Marilyn Strickland · WA-10 (2021–present)
- Mike Thompson · CA-04 (1999–present)
- Norma Torres · CA-35 (2015–present)
- Suzan DelBene · WA-01 (2012–present)
- Zoe Lofgren · CA-18 (1995–present)
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- The Bakersfield Californian
Other1
Other · 1
- DCCC · Red to Blue
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-06-16Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-16
Endorsements95 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks