Races · house · 2026 · California
house · open seat
Doris Matsui vs Ralph Nwobi
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 99% D
Polling average rates this race Safe D (D+18.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+28.9 with an 80% CI ranging from D+12.8 (10th pctile) to D+45.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 100/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
100
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement100
21.9pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution100 / 100
Measured21.9pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +28.9
80% CI: D +12.8 → D +45.0 · win prob 99%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +21.6
80% CI D +21.2 → D +32.2
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +7.1
80% CI D +3.6 → D +10.5
CV MAE 2.68
consensusMarket-implied
D +15.9
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 95¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the CA-07 House seat?” | 95¢ | 2¢ | -2¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 27 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet27
Endorsements tracked
Doris Matsui27 · 100%
Ralph Nwobi0 · 0%
Total27
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DDoris Matsui27 endorsers
Most notable · Nancy Pelosi · former speaker of the House (2007–2011, 2019–2023) from CA-11 (1987–present)
Elected officials22
Federal 14State 2Local 4
Elected officials · 22
- Nancy Pelosi · former speaker of the House (2007–2011, 2019–2023) from CA-11 (1987–present)
- Eleni Kounalakis · lieutenant governor of California (2019–present)
- Gavin Newsom · governor of California (2019–present)
- Dave Min · CA-47 (2025–present)
- John Garamendi · CA-08 (2009–present)
- Josh Harder · CA-09 (2019–present)
- Lateefah Simon · CA-12 (2025–present)
- Linda Sanchez · CA-38 (2003–present)
- Mike Thompson · CA-04 (1999–present)
- Pete Aguilar · CA-33 (2015–present)
- Robert Garcia · CA-42 (2023–present)
- Sara Jacobs · CA-51 (2021–present)
- Zoe Lofgren · CA-18 (1994–present)
- Adam Schiff · California (2024–present)
- Alex Padilla · California (2021–present)
- Elk Grove · ngh-Allen, mayor of Elk Grove (2020–present)
- Eric Swalwell · former CA-14 (2013–2026)
- Kevin McCarty · mayor of Sacramento (2024–present)
- Rick Jennings · Sacramento city councilor from the 7th district (2014–present)
- Roger Dickinson · Sacramento city councilor from the 2nd district (2024–present)
- Sacramento city councilor · ity councilor from the 1st district (2022–present)
- Wilton Rancheria
Organizations5
Organizations · 5
- California Democratic Party
- California Federation of Labor Unions
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- Natural Resources Defense Council
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
RRalph Nwobi0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-05-30Doris MatsuiH6CA05195 ↗
Receipts
$3.0M
Disburse
$1.9M
Cash on hand
$1.4M
Debts
$1.4M
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$319.0K
D side
$200.0K · 63%
R side
$119.0K · 37%
Top spender
—
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D5
Safe D · 5 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- The Economist · May 5
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DThe Economist
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-05-30
Endorsements51 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks