Republican primary · June 2, 2026
California house Republican primary
Field of 4 Republican candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Republican primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
90
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (24.1pp).
Forecast CI width80
24.1pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution80 / 100
Measured24.1pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Republican primary
primary-struct-v1 · medium confidence · 2 polls + fundamentals1Kathryn MingKathryn Ann Bigelow ( / ˈ b ɪ ɡ ə ˌ l oʊ / ; born November 27, 1951) is an American filmmaker. Her accolades include two Academy Awards , tw…
2George YangChallenger
3Zachariah WoodenZachariah Wooden ( Republican Party ) ran for election to the U.S. House to represent California's 7th Congressional District . Wooden lost …
4Ralph NwobiRalph Nwobi ( Republican Party ) ran for election to the U.S. House to represent California's 7th Congressional District . Nwobi lost in the…
All polls · 0 results
Republican primary pollsNo polls have been published for this primary yet. When pollsters start covering the race, individual polls will be listed here with sample size, lean, and trust signals.
Endorsements · Republican primary · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 4 candidates with no endorsements yetRRalph Nwobi0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RZachariah Wooden0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RKathryn Ming0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RGeorge Yang0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-05-30Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-05-30
Endorsements51 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks