Primary · June 2, 2026
California house primary
Field of 8 candidates running on a single ballot (jungle / nonpartisan format). Top finishers advance to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
100
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (34.0pp).
Forecast CI width100
34.0pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured34.0pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · primary
primary-struct-v1 · medium confidence · 2 polls + fundamentals1Doris MatsuiDoris Okada Matsui is an American politician, who has served as a member of the United States House of Representatives from California's 7th…
2Mai VangMai Yang Vang is an American politician who has served on the Sacramento City Council since 2020. A member of the Democratic Party, she repr…
↑ top 2 advance to November · ↓ eliminated
3George YangChallenger
4Zachariah WoodenZachariah Wooden ( Republican Party ) ran for election to the U.S. House to represent California's 7th Congressional District . Wooden lost …
5Kathryn MingKathryn Ann Bigelow ( / ˈ b ɪ ɡ ə ˌ l oʊ / ; born November 27, 1951) is an American filmmaker. Her accolades include two Academy Awards , tw…
6Ralph NwobiRalph Nwobi ( Republican Party ) ran for election to the U.S. House to represent California's 7th Congressional District . Nwobi lost in the…
7Robert MorinRobert Morin is a Canadian film director, screenwriter, and cinematographer. In 2009, he received the Governor General's Award in Visual and…
8Enayat NazhatEnayat Nazhat ( Democratic Party ) ran for election to the U.S. House to represent California's 7th Congressional District . Nazhat lost in …
Same-party general possibleThe two front-runners are both Democrats. If that holds, November is a D-vs-D general — which the general view colors by candidate, not party.
All polls · 2 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Matsui | Morin | Nazhat | Vang | Nwobi | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 4 | Data for Progress | 572 · LV | 24 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 6 | +2 |
| Mar 22 | Upswing Research | 400 · LV | 28 | 2 | 1 | 17 | — | +11 |
Endorsements · primary · 51 total
Source · Wikipedia · 6 candidates with no endorsements yetDoris Matsui · 27Mai Vang · 24
DDoris Matsui27 endorsers
Most notable · Nancy Pelosi · former speaker of the House (2007–2011, 2019–2023) from CA-11 (1987–present)
Elected officials22
Federal 14State 2Local 4
Elected officials · 22
- Nancy Pelosi · former speaker of the House (2007–2011, 2019–2023) from CA-11 (1987–present)
- Eleni Kounalakis · lieutenant governor of California (2019–present)
- Gavin Newsom · governor of California (2019–present)
- Dave Min · CA-47 (2025–present)
- John Garamendi · CA-08 (2009–present)
- Josh Harder · CA-09 (2019–present)
- Lateefah Simon · CA-12 (2025–present)
- Linda Sanchez · CA-38 (2003–present)
- Mike Thompson · CA-04 (1999–present)
- Pete Aguilar · CA-33 (2015–present)
- Robert Garcia · CA-42 (2023–present)
- Sara Jacobs · CA-51 (2021–present)
- Zoe Lofgren · CA-18 (1994–present)
- Adam Schiff · California (2024–present)
- Alex Padilla · California (2021–present)
- Elk Grove · ngh-Allen, mayor of Elk Grove (2020–present)
- Eric Swalwell · former CA-14 (2013–2026)
- Kevin McCarty · mayor of Sacramento (2024–present)
- Rick Jennings · Sacramento city councilor from the 7th district (2014–present)
- Roger Dickinson · Sacramento city councilor from the 2nd district (2024–present)
- Sacramento city councilor · ity councilor from the 1st district (2022–present)
- Wilton Rancheria
Organizations5
Organizations · 5
- California Democratic Party
- California Federation of Labor Unions
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- Natural Resources Defense Council
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
DMai Vang24 endorsers
Most notable · Angelique Ashby · majority leader of the California Senate (2025-present) from SD-08 (2022-present)
Organizations17
Organizations · 17
- California Federation of Labor Unions
- California Working Families Party
- Center for Biological Diversity · Action Fund
- Council on American–Islamic Relations · Action
- Courage California
- Democratic Socialists of America · of America
- Justice Democrats
- Leaders We Deserve
- National Nurses United
- National Union of Healthcare Workers
- Our Revolution
- Peace Action
- Progressive Democrats of America
- Progressive Victory
- Sunrise Movement
- Track AIPAC
- United Auto Workers · Region 6
Elected officials5
Federal 0State 2Local 1
Elected officials · 5
- Angelique Ashby · majority leader of the California Senate (2025-present) from SD-08 (2022-present)
- David Hogg · former vice chair of the Democratic National Committee (2025)
- Chris Rabb · Pennsylvania state representative from the 200th district (2017–present)
- Jane Kim · former San Francisco supervisor from the 6th district (2011–2019)
- Sacramento city councilmember · councilmember from the 5th district (2022–present)
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- John McCrea · musician
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- The Sacramento Bee
DRobert Morin0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DEnayat Nazhat0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RRalph Nwobi0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RZachariah Wooden0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RKathryn Ming0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RGeorge Yang0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-05-30Robert Morin
Raised
$30K
Cash on hand
$25K
Top industries
No industry data.
Kathryn Ming
Raised
$25
Cash on hand
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 2deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-05-30
Endorsements51 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks