Primary · June 2, 2026
California house primary
Field of 7 candidates running on a single ballot (jungle / nonpartisan format). Top finishers advance to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
100
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (36.6pp).
Forecast CI width100
36.6pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured36.6pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · primary
primary-struct-v1 · medium confidence · 2 polls + fundamentals1Kevin KileyKevin Patrick Kiley (born January 30, 1985) is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for California's 3rd congressional …
2Richard PanRichard Juien-Dah Pan is an American Democratic politician and physician who served in the California State Senate from 2014 to 2022, repres…
↑ top 2 advance to November · ↓ eliminated
3Lauren Babb TomlinsonLauren Babb Tomlinson ( Democratic Party ) ran for election to the U.S. House to represent California's 6th Congressional District . She los…
4Christine Bish
5Ray Riehle
6Thien HoThis House Is Not for Sale is the fourteenth studio album by American rock band Bon Jovi. It was released on November 4, 2016, by Island Rec…
7Martha GuerreroMartha Guerrero ( Democratic Party ) ran for election to the U.S. House to represent California's 6th Congressional District . She lost in t…
8Michael StansfieldMichael Mansfield KC (born 12 October 1941) is an English barrister and head of chambers at Nexus Chambers. He has been described as "The ki…
9Tyler VandenbergTyler Vandenberg ( Democratic Party ) ran for election to the U.S. House to represent California's 6th Congressional District . He lost in t…
Polling average
Latest poll · 7 candidatesThis race has 7 polled candidates — too many for a readable time-series chart. Showing the latest aggregated polling average per candidate instead. The All polls table below has full per-poll detail.
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Kiley | Pan | Ho | Tomlinson | Guerrero | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18 | Normington, Petts & Associates | 400 · LV | — | 14 | 8 | 10 | 9 | +4 |
Endorsements · primary · 51 total
Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yetLauren Babb Tomlinson · 25Richard Pan · 17Thien Ho · 6Martha Guerrero · 3
DLauren Babb Tomlinson25 endorsers
Most notable · David Hogg · former vice chair of the Democratic National Committee (2025)
Organizations13
Organizations · 13
- California Environmental Voters
- Congressional Black Caucus PAC
- Congressional Progressive Caucus · PAC
- Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC
- Courage California
- EMILYs List
- Elect Democratic Women
- End Citizens United
- J Street
- Leaders We Deserve
- National Union of Healthcare Workers
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Vote Mama
Elected officials12
Federal 11State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 12
- David Hogg · former vice chair of the Democratic National Committee (2025)
- Greg Casar · TX-35 (2023–present)
- Gregory Meeks · NY-05 (1998–present)
- Janelle Bynum · OR-05 (2025–present)
- Jasmine Crockett · TX-30 (2023–present)
- LaMonica McIver · NJ-10 (2024–present)
- Lateefah Simon · CA-12 (2025–present)
- Lois Frankel · FL-22 (2013–present)
- Maxwell Frost · FL-10 (2023–present)
- Pramila Jayapal · WA-07 (2017–present)
- Sydney Kamlager-Dove · CA-37 (2023–present)
- Barbara Lee · former CA-12 (1998–2025)
DRichard Pan17 endorsers
Most notable · Dave Min · CA-47 (2025–present)
Organizations10
Organizations · 10
- 314 Action
- AFSCME · California
- ASPIRE PAC
- California Faculty Association
- California Federation of Labor Unions
- J Street
- National Union of Healthcare Workers
- SEIU · California
- SEIU United Healthcare Workers West
- United Nurses Association of California
Elected officials6
Federal 6State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 6
- Dave Min · CA-47 (2025–present)
- Judy Chu · CA-28 (2009–present)
- Kevin Mullin · CA-15 (2023–present)
- Luz Rivas · CA-29 (2025–present)
- Norma Torres · CA-35 (2015–present)
- Ro Khanna · CA-17 (2017–present)
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- The Sacramento Bee
DThien Ho6 endorsers
Most notable · Adam Gray · CA-13 (2025–present)
Elected officials5
Federal 2State 2Local 1
Elected officials · 5
- Adam Gray · CA-13 (2025–present)
- Derek Tran · CA-45 (2025–present)
- Jim Cooper · sheriff of Sacramento County (2022–present) and former state assemblymember from the 9th district (2014–2022)
- Kevin McCarty · mayor of Sacramento (2024–present)
- Stephanie Nguyen · state assemblymember from the 10th district (2022–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Blue Dog PAC
DMartha Guerrero3 endorsers
Most notable · Richard Polanco · former majority leader of the California State Senate (1998–2002) from the 22nd district (1994–2002)
Elected officials2
Federal 0State 1Local 1
Elected officials · 2
- Richard Polanco · former majority leader of the California State Senate (1998–2002) from the 22nd district (1994–2002)
- Gil Cedillo · former Los Angeles City Councilor from the 1st district (2013–2022)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Center for Biological Diversity · Action Fund
IKevin Kiley0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RMichael Stansfield0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DTyler Vandenberg0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-06-02Thien Ho
No FEC committee filing yet.
Top industries
No industry data.
Martha Guerrero
Raised
$186K
Cash on hand
$45K
Top industries
No industry data.
Michael Stansfield
Raised
$17K
Cash on hand
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
In the news
10 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
10 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles10
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.40
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.17 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.40
Week-over-weekshift +0.17 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 40%
Neutral 60%
40% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets40%
Neutral60%
R-leaning outlets0%
40% of outlets classified by editorial lean
A
Election results 2026: Live updates for the California Primary Election
N
California Sixth Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
N
California Sixth Congressional District Primary Election Results
A
California Primary Results 2026: House and Governor
T
California governor race: results and polls for 2026 election
N
California 22nd Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
N
California 11th Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
P
How Election Reform Played Out in California’s June Primary
N
Progressive Randy Villegas’ Chances of Winning California House Race
K
California 2026 Primary Full Election Results: Governor, US House and other statewide, local races
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-02
Endorsements51 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage10 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks