Races · house · 2026 · New York
house · open seat
New York house
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+32) suggests Safe D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+43.6 with an 80% CI ranging from D+27.5 (10th pctile) to D+59.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 100/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
100
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement100
61.3pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution100 / 100
Measured61.3pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +43.6
80% CI: D +27.5 → D +59.7 · win prob 99%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +57.2
80% CI D +49.3 → D +69.8
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +4.1
80% CI R +8.7 → D +0.5
CV MAE 3.58
consensusMarket-implied
D +15.4
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the NY-13 House seat?” | 94¢ | 3¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 29 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet29
Endorsements tracked
Darializa Avila Chevalier29 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total29
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DDarializa Avila Chevalier29 endorsers
Most notable · Jabari Brisport · state senator from the 25th district (2021–present)
Organizations18
Organizations · 18
- American Priorities
- College Democrats of America
- Council of School Supervisors & Administrators
- Council on American–Islamic Relations · Action New York
- Indivisible
- Jewish Voice for Peace · Action
- Justice Democrats
- New York City Democratic Socialists of America
- Our Revolution
- PAL PAC
- Progressive Change Campaign Committee
- Progressive Democrats of America
- Progressive Victory
- Sunrise Movement
- Third Act Movement
- Track AIPAC
- US Campaign for Palestinian Rights · Action
- United Auto Workers · Region 9
Elected officials7
Federal 1State 4Local 2
Elected officials · 7
- Jabari Brisport · state senator from the 25th district (2021–present)
- Robert Jackson · state senator from the 31st district (2019–present)
- Chi Ossé · New York City councilmember from the 36th district (2022–present)
- Chris Rabb · Pennsylvania state representative from the 200th district (2017–present)
- Claire Valdez · state assemblymember from the 37th district (2025–present)
- Jamaal Bowman · former NY-16 (2021–2025)
- Zohran Mamdani · mayor of New York City (2026–present)
Celebrity3
Celebrity · 3
- Cameron Kasky · co-founder of Never Again MSD and March for Our Lives organizer
- Hasan Piker · political commentator
- Kat Abughazaleh · journalist and social media influencer
Other1
Other · 1
- Adam Hamawy · surgeon
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-24Darializa Avila ChevalierH6NY13279 ↗
Receipts
$929.7K
Disburse
$699.9K
Cash on hand
$229.8K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$1.9M
D side
$1.9M · 100%
R side
$6.5K · 0%
Top spender
Justice Democrats PAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justice Democrats PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $1.0M | 53% | for Darializa Avila Chevalier |
| AMERICAN PRIORITIES (AP) other · boosts D
| D | $844.3K | 45% | for Darializa Avila Chevalier |
| Indivisible Action other · boosts D
| D | $29.9K | 2% | for Darializa Avila Chevalier |
| CITIZENS AGAINST AIPAC CORRUPTION other · boosts D
| D | $5.0K | 0% | for Darializa Avila Chevalier |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-24
Endorsements71 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks