Races · house · 2026 · California
house · open seat
Saikat Chakrabarti vs David Ganezer
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 99% D
Polling average rates this race Safe D (D+16.5, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+44.4 with an 80% CI ranging from D+28.3 (10th pctile) to D+60.5 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 100/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
100
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement98
19.7pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution98 / 100
Measured19.7pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +44.4
80% CI: D +28.3 → D +60.5 · win prob 99%
R+100R+50TIEDD+50D+100
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 2 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +61.7
80% CI D +17.7 → D +65.5
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +42.0
80% CI D +37.0 → D +47.0
CV MAE 3.89
consensusMarket-implied
D +15.9
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 95¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 75 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 95% · polls 19%.
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the CA-11 House seat?” | 95¢ | 2¢ | -4¢ | — | +0 |
All polls · 2 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2 | Lake Research Partners+2For · Internal D-aligned | 500 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +17.7noisy | 17 · 5 |
| Apr 7 | Data for Progress+2For · Progress (D) | 537 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +1.151 tracked | +0.8aligned | 28 · 7 |
Endorsements · 102 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet41
Endorsements tracked
Connie Chan41 · 100%
David Ganezer0 · 0%
Total41
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DConnie Chan41 endorsers
Most notable · Nancy Pelosi · former speaker of the House (2007–2011, 2019–2023) from CA-11 (1987–present)
Organizations19
Organizations · 19
- ASPIRE PAC
- American Federation of Teachers · 2121
- Building and Construction Trades Council · Trades Council
- California Faculty Association
- California Federation of Labor Unions
- California Federation of Teachers
- California Teachers Association
- California Working Families Party
- Council on American–Islamic Relations · Action
- Elect Democratic Women
- Harvey Milk LGBTQ Democratic Club
- IAFF · Local 798
- National Nurses United
- Progressive Democrats of America
- SEIU · California
- SEIU United Healthcare Workers West
- San Francisco Labor Council
- San Francisco League of Pissed Off Voters
- UNITE HERE
Elected officials18
Federal 11State 1Local 2
Elected officials · 18
- Nancy Pelosi · former speaker of the House (2007–2011, 2019–2023) from CA-11 (1987–present)
- Grace Meng · NY-06 (2013–present)
- Jill Tokuda · HI-02 (2023–present)
- Judy Chu · CA-28 (2009–present)
- Julia Brownley · CA-26 (2013–present)
- Lois Frankel · FL-22 (2013–present)
- Marilyn Strickland · WA-10 (2021–present)
- Norma Torres · CA-35 (2015–present)
- Zoe Lofgren · CA-18 (1995–present)
- Aaron Peskin · former San Francisco supervisor from the 3rd district (2001–2009; 2015–2025)
- Adam Schiff · California (2024–present)
- Art Agnos · former mayor of San Francisco (1988–1992)
- Chyanne Chen · San Francisco supervisor from the 11th district (2025–present)
- Dean Preston · former San Francisco supervisor from the 5th district (2019–2025)
- Jackie Fielder · San Francisco supervisor from the 9th district (2025–present)
- Mike Honda · former CA-07 (2001–2017)
- Tom Ammiano · former state assemblymember (2008–2014)
- Willie Brown · former mayor of San Francisco (1996–2004)
Celebrity2
Celebrity · 2
- Cleve Jones · LGBT rights activist
- Saikat Chakrabarti · former chief of staff to U.S. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and former candidate for this seat
Newspapers2
Newspapers · 2
- San Francisco Bay Guardian
- Sun-Reporter
DScott Wiener35 endorsers
Most notable · Robert Rivas · speaker of the California State Assembly (2023–present) from the 29th district (2018–present)
Organizations17
Organizations · 17
- Alice B. Toklas LGBTQ Democratic Club
- California Democratic Party
- California Legislative LGBTQ Caucus
- California School Employees Association
- Democrats for Education Reform
- Equality California
- Equality PAC
- GrowSF
- Human Rights Campaign
- International Union of Operating Engineers · Local 3
- J Street PAC
- LGBTQ Victory Fund
- National Union of Healthcare Workers
- SEIU · California
- SEIU United Healthcare Workers West
- Sheet Metal Workers · Local 104
- United Food and Commercial Workers · Western States Council
Elected officials13
Federal 6State 3Local 3
Elected officials · 13
- Robert Rivas · speaker of the California State Assembly (2023–present) from the 29th district (2018–present)
- Rob Bonta · attorney general of California (2021–present)
- Jake Auchincloss · MA-04 (2021–present)
- Josh Harder · CA-09 (2019–present)
- Julie Johnson · TX-32 (2025–present)
- Laura Friedman · CA-30 (2025–present)
- Sam Liccardo · CA-16 (2025–present)
- Scott Peters · CA-50 (2013–present)
- David Chiu · city attorney of San Francisco (2021–present)
- Evan Low · former state assemblymember from the 26th district (2014–2024)
- London Breed · former mayor of San Francisco (2017–2018, 2018–2025)
- Matt Mahan · mayor of San Jose (2023–present)
- Ricardo Lara · state insurance commissioner (2019–present)
Newspapers3
Newspapers · 3
- Bay Area Reporter
- San Francisco Chronicle
- San Francisco Examiner
Celebrity2
Celebrity · 2
- Chris Larsen · business executive
- Garry Tan · venture capitalist
DSaikat Chakrabarti24 endorsers
Most notable · Honey Mahogany · former chair of the San Francisco Democratic Party (2021–2024)
Organizations11
Organizations · 11
- Center for Biological Diversity · Action Fund
- College Democrats · e Democrats
- Council on American–Islamic Relations · Action
- Justice Democrats
- PAL PAC
- Peace Action
- Progressive Victory
- Sunrise Movement
- Track AIPAC
- Track Oil PACs
- US Campaign for Palestinian Rights · Action
Celebrity6
Celebrity · 6
- Howie Klein · former president of Reprise Records (1989–2001) and adjunct professor at McGill University (deceased)
- Cameron Kasky · gun violence advocate
- Chi Ossé · New York City Councilmember
- Hasan Piker · political commentator
- Heather Digby Parton · political blogger
- Peaches Christ · drag performer
Elected officials6
Federal 3State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 6
- Honey Mahogany · former chair of the San Francisco Democratic Party (2021–2024)
- Ilhan Omar · MN-5 (2019–present)
- Rashida Tlaib · MI-12 (2019–present)
- Chris Rabb · Pennsylvania state representative from the 200th district (2017–present)
- Jamaal Bowman · former NY-16 (2021–2025)
- Matt Gonzalez · former San Francisco supervisor from the 5th district (2001−2005)
Other1
Other · 1
- Sunrise Bay Area
DMarie Hurabiell2 endorsers
Most notable · Quentin L. Kopp · former state senator from the 8th district (1986–1998)
Elected officials2
Federal 0State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 2
- Quentin L. Kopp · former state senator from the 8th district (1986–1998)
- Michela Alioto-Pier · former San Francisco supervisor from the 2nd district (2004–2011)
RDavid Ganezer0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-17Connie ChanH6CA11268 ↗
Receipts
$649.3K
Disburse
$577.3K
Cash on hand
$72.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Scott WienerH8CA11116 ↗
Receipts
$4.0M
Disburse
$2.7M
Cash on hand
$1.3M
Debts
$76.3K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Saikat ChakrabartiH6CA11219 ↗
Receipts
$5.2M
Disburse
$5.0M
Cash on hand
$208.7K
Debts
$4.8M
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Marie HurabiellH6CA11318 ↗
Receipts
$631.9K
Disburse
$492.8K
Cash on hand
$139.2K
Debts
$456.2K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$1.4M
D side
$1.4M · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
Equality PAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equality PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $1.1M | 75% | for Scott Wiener |
| Abundant Future super pac · boosts R
| R | $887.5K | 63% | against Saikat Chakrabarti |
| PRO-CHOICE MAJORITY ACTION other · boosts D
| D | $475.0K | 34% | for Connie Chan |
| SF SOLIDARITY PAC other · boosts D
| D | $425.0K | 30% | for Connie Chan |
| WORKING FAMILIES FOR SAN FRANCISCO PAC other · boosts D
| D | $310.6K | 22% | for Connie Chan |
| RISING TIDE COLLECTIVE other · boosts D
| D | $194.9K | 14% | for Connie Chan |
| EQUALITY CALIFORNIA VOTES other · boosts D
| D | $125.0K | 9% | for Scott Wiener |
| J Street Action Fund other · boosts D
| D | $60.0K | 4% | for Scott Wiener |
| Common Sense SF pac · boosts D
| D | $51.0K | 4% | for Marie Hurabiell |
| A FIGHT WORTH HAVING other · boosts D
| D | $10.9K | 1% | for Saikat Chakrabarti |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D5
Safe D · 5 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- The Economist · May 5
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DThe Economist
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified2 / 2deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-17
Endorsements102 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks