Democratic primary · June 2, 2026
California house Democratic primary
Field of 4 Democratic candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Democratic primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
81
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (18.3pp).
Forecast CI width61
18.3pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution61 / 100
Measured18.3pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Democratic primary
primary-struct-v1 · high confidence · 8 polls + fundamentals1Scott WienerScott Wiener is an American politician who has served as a member of the California State Senate from the 11th district since 2016. A member…
2Nancy Pelosi
3Saikat ChakrabartiSaikat Chakrabarti is an American political advisor, climate policy advocate, and software engineer. A progressive Democrat, Chakrabarti co-…
4Connie ChanConnie Chan is an American politician serving as a member of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors for District 1 since January 8, 2021, af…
5Christine Pelosi
6Marie HurabiellMarie Hurabiell ( Democratic Party ) ran for election to the U.S. House to represent California's 11th Congressional District . She lost in …
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 4 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Wiener | Chakrabarti | Chan | Hurabiell | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 6 | EMC Research | 542 · LV | 38 | 21 | 22 | — | +16 |
| May 2 | Sextant Strategies & Research | 819 · LV | 40 | 18 | 17 | 5 | +22 |
| Apr 13 | GQR | 500 · LV | 44 | 26 | 11 | 2 | +18 |
| Mar 11 | Data for Progress | 797 · LV | 32 | 20 | 17 | — | +12 |
Endorsements · Democratic primary · 102 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yetConnie Chan · 41Scott Wiener · 35Saikat Chakrabarti · 24Marie Hurabiell · 2
DConnie Chan41 endorsers
Most notable · Nancy Pelosi · former speaker of the House (2007–2011, 2019–2023) from CA-11 (1987–present)
Organizations19
Organizations · 19
- ASPIRE PAC
- American Federation of Teachers · 2121
- Building and Construction Trades Council · Trades Council
- California Faculty Association
- California Federation of Labor Unions
- California Federation of Teachers
- California Teachers Association
- California Working Families Party
- Council on American–Islamic Relations · Action
- Elect Democratic Women
- Harvey Milk LGBTQ Democratic Club
- IAFF · Local 798
- National Nurses United
- Progressive Democrats of America
- SEIU · California
- SEIU United Healthcare Workers West
- San Francisco Labor Council
- San Francisco League of Pissed Off Voters
- UNITE HERE
Elected officials18
Federal 11State 1Local 2
Elected officials · 18
- Nancy Pelosi · former speaker of the House (2007–2011, 2019–2023) from CA-11 (1987–present)
- Grace Meng · NY-06 (2013–present)
- Jill Tokuda · HI-02 (2023–present)
- Judy Chu · CA-28 (2009–present)
- Julia Brownley · CA-26 (2013–present)
- Lois Frankel · FL-22 (2013–present)
- Marilyn Strickland · WA-10 (2021–present)
- Norma Torres · CA-35 (2015–present)
- Zoe Lofgren · CA-18 (1995–present)
- Aaron Peskin · former San Francisco supervisor from the 3rd district (2001–2009; 2015–2025)
- Adam Schiff · California (2024–present)
- Art Agnos · former mayor of San Francisco (1988–1992)
- Chyanne Chen · San Francisco supervisor from the 11th district (2025–present)
- Dean Preston · former San Francisco supervisor from the 5th district (2019–2025)
- Jackie Fielder · San Francisco supervisor from the 9th district (2025–present)
- Mike Honda · former CA-07 (2001–2017)
- Tom Ammiano · former state assemblymember (2008–2014)
- Willie Brown · former mayor of San Francisco (1996–2004)
Celebrity2
Celebrity · 2
- Cleve Jones · LGBT rights activist
- Saikat Chakrabarti · former chief of staff to U.S. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and former candidate for this seat
Newspapers2
Newspapers · 2
- San Francisco Bay Guardian
- Sun-Reporter
DScott Wiener35 endorsers
Most notable · Robert Rivas · speaker of the California State Assembly (2023–present) from the 29th district (2018–present)
Organizations17
Organizations · 17
- Alice B. Toklas LGBTQ Democratic Club
- California Democratic Party
- California Legislative LGBTQ Caucus
- California School Employees Association
- Democrats for Education Reform
- Equality California
- Equality PAC
- GrowSF
- Human Rights Campaign
- International Union of Operating Engineers · Local 3
- J Street PAC
- LGBTQ Victory Fund
- National Union of Healthcare Workers
- SEIU · California
- SEIU United Healthcare Workers West
- Sheet Metal Workers · Local 104
- United Food and Commercial Workers · Western States Council
Elected officials13
Federal 6State 3Local 3
Elected officials · 13
- Robert Rivas · speaker of the California State Assembly (2023–present) from the 29th district (2018–present)
- Rob Bonta · attorney general of California (2021–present)
- Jake Auchincloss · MA-04 (2021–present)
- Josh Harder · CA-09 (2019–present)
- Julie Johnson · TX-32 (2025–present)
- Laura Friedman · CA-30 (2025–present)
- Sam Liccardo · CA-16 (2025–present)
- Scott Peters · CA-50 (2013–present)
- David Chiu · city attorney of San Francisco (2021–present)
- Evan Low · former state assemblymember from the 26th district (2014–2024)
- London Breed · former mayor of San Francisco (2017–2018, 2018–2025)
- Matt Mahan · mayor of San Jose (2023–present)
- Ricardo Lara · state insurance commissioner (2019–present)
Newspapers3
Newspapers · 3
- Bay Area Reporter
- San Francisco Chronicle
- San Francisco Examiner
Celebrity2
Celebrity · 2
- Chris Larsen · business executive
- Garry Tan · venture capitalist
DSaikat Chakrabarti24 endorsers
Most notable · Honey Mahogany · former chair of the San Francisco Democratic Party (2021–2024)
Organizations11
Organizations · 11
- Center for Biological Diversity · Action Fund
- College Democrats · e Democrats
- Council on American–Islamic Relations · Action
- Justice Democrats
- PAL PAC
- Peace Action
- Progressive Victory
- Sunrise Movement
- Track AIPAC
- Track Oil PACs
- US Campaign for Palestinian Rights · Action
Celebrity6
Celebrity · 6
- Howie Klein · former president of Reprise Records (1989–2001) and adjunct professor at McGill University (deceased)
- Cameron Kasky · gun violence advocate
- Chi Ossé · New York City Councilmember
- Hasan Piker · political commentator
- Heather Digby Parton · political blogger
- Peaches Christ · drag performer
Elected officials6
Federal 3State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 6
- Honey Mahogany · former chair of the San Francisco Democratic Party (2021–2024)
- Ilhan Omar · MN-5 (2019–present)
- Rashida Tlaib · MI-12 (2019–present)
- Chris Rabb · Pennsylvania state representative from the 200th district (2017–present)
- Jamaal Bowman · former NY-16 (2021–2025)
- Matt Gonzalez · former San Francisco supervisor from the 5th district (2001−2005)
Other1
Other · 1
- Sunrise Bay Area
DMarie Hurabiell2 endorsers
Most notable · Quentin L. Kopp · former state senator from the 8th district (1986–1998)
Elected officials2
Federal 0State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 2
- Quentin L. Kopp · former state senator from the 8th district (1986–1998)
- Michela Alioto-Pier · former San Francisco supervisor from the 2nd district (2004–2011)
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-06-17Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 4deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-17
Endorsements102 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks