Races · house · 2026 · Michigan
house · open seat · provisional matchup
Democrat vs Tom Barrett
Likely matchup — the Democratic nominee isn't settled. Shown as a provisional party matchup, not confirmed nominees.
Info · primary pending
The Democratic nominee hasn't been chosen yet
2 Democratic candidates remain. See the democratic primary →
Primary August 4, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 0d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedTilt D · model 55% D · market gap 25pp
Polling average rates this race Tilt D (D+1.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+1.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+14.5 (10th pctile) to D+17.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 55% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 94/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
⚠ Model and market disagree sharply. Model says D wins at 55%, market says 80% — 25pp gap. Either side could be wrong — worth a closer look.
CITATIONS · tilt-d · low-tipping · uncertainty-high · market-disagreement-large
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
94
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement46
9.3pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution46 / 100
Measured9.3pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +1.6
80% CI: R +14.5 → D +17.7 · win prob 55%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 4 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +7.7
80% CI R +15.1 → R +3.7
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +1.5
80% CI R +1.0 → D +4.0
CV MAE 1.97
consensusMarket-implied
D +6.6
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 77¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 31 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 77% · polls 45%.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
2 polls · through Oct 28, 2025 · latest Public Policy Polling
Bridget Brink
VoteHub45.0%
VoteHub
Polling average45.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
Matt Maasdam
VoteHub43.0%
VoteHub
Polling average43.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
Tom Barrett
VoteHub40.0%
VoteHub
Polling average40.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg45.0%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average45.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 5.0 pt below our average
VoteHub's independent average across 2 polls (through Oct 28, 2025): Bridget Brink 45.0%, Matt Maasdam 43.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 4 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 26 | Public Policy Polling+2For · Internal D-aligned | 519 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +0.9104 tracked | +2.4noisy | 46 · 45 |
| Apr 25, 26 | Public Policy Polling+2For · Internal D-aligned | 519 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +0.9104 tracked | +2.4noisy | 45 · 44 |
| Oct 27, 25 | Public Policy Polling+2For · Internal D-aligned | 557 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +0.9104 tracked | +2.4noisy | 45 · 41 |
| Oct 27, 25 | Public Policy Polling+2For · Internal D-aligned | 557 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +0.9104 tracked | +2.4noisy | 43 · 39 |
Endorsements · 47 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet47
Endorsements tracked
Democrat0 · 0%
Tom Barrett47 · 100%
Total47
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RTom Barrett47 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Other32
Other · 32
- Emily Dievendorf · HD-77 (2023–present)
- Jennifer Conlin · HD-48 (2023–present)
- Joey Andrews · HD-38 (2023–present)
- Kara Hope · HD-74 (2019–present)
- Lois Frankel · FL-22 (2013–present)
- Noah Arbit · HD-20 (2023–present)
- Rashida Tlaib · MI-12 (2019–present)
- Ro Khanna · CA-17 (2017–present)
- Sam Singh · SD-28 (2023–present)
- Bridget Brink · former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine (2022–2025) and Slovakia (2019–2022)
- David Bonior · former House Whip (1991–2002) from MI-10 (1977–2003)
- EMILYs List
- Elect Democratic Women
- End Citizens United
- Francis Spaniola · former HD-87 (1975–1990)
- Indivisible · Michigan 7th
- Ingham County · Ingham County commissioner from the 4th district (2007–present)
- Jill Underly · Wisconsin Superintendent of Public Instruction (2021–present)
- Joan Bauer · former HD-68 (2007–2012)
- Lynn Jondahl · former HD-70 (1973–1994)
- Mark Schauer · former MI-7 (2009–2011)
- Max Rose · former NY-11 (2019–2021)
- Michigan State University · Michigan State University
- National Nurses United
- Showing Up for Racial Justice
- Sunrise Movement · (co-founded by candidate)
- Track AIPAC
- U.S. Special Operations Command · tive for the U.S. Special Operations Command at the National Counterterrorism Center
- UNITE HERE · Local 24
- Vote Mama
- VoteVets
- William Lawrence · co-founder of Sunrise Movement
Organizations11
Organizations · 11
- AIPAC
- Americans for Prosperity
- International Association of Bridge, Structural, Ornamental and Reinforcing Iron Workers · Local 25
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers · Local 665
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters · Local 243
- Michigan Democratic Party · Progressive Caucus
- Michigan Education Association
- Michigan Machinists Council
- Republican Jewish Coalition
- United Association · sociation
- Working Families Party
Elected officials4
Federal 2State 2Local 0
Elected officials · 4
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Joe Tate · former speaker of the Michigan House of Representatives (2023–2025) from HD-09 (2019–present)
- Mike Johnson · speaker of the House (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present)
- Mark Meadows · former HD-69 (2006–2012) and former mayor of East Lansing (1997–2005, 2015–2019)
DDemocrat0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-07-02Bridget BrinkH6MI07256 ↗
Receipts
$2.3M
Disburse
$962.1K
Cash on hand
$1.3M
Debts
$20.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Matt MaasdamH6MI07272 ↗
Receipts
$1.7M
Disburse
$789.2K
Cash on hand
$936.6K
Debts
$15.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Tom BarrettH2MI07123 ↗
Receipts
$5.0M
Disburse
$2.2M
Cash on hand
$2.8M
Debts
$2.8K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$902.6K
D side
$6.8K · 1%
R side
$895.7K · 99%
Top spender
Michigan Values PAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan Values PAC other · boosts R
| R | $844.8K | 94% | against Bridget Brink |
| VoteVets other · boosts D
| D | $514.4K | 57% | for Matt Maasdam |
| SPECIAL OPERATIONS FOR AMERICA super pac · boosts R
| R | $51.0K | 6% | for Tom Barrett |
| Youth Save Democracy PAC pac · boosts D
| D | $5.0K | 1% | against Tom Barrett |
| FIELD TEAM 6, INC. super pac · boosts D
| D | $1.9K | 0% | against Tom Barrett |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Lean D2
Lean D · 2 raters
- The Economist · May 21
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Tossup3
Tossup · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Cook Political Report
TossupThe Economist
Lean DInside Elections
TossupSabato's Crystal Ball
TossupSplit Ticket
Lean DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
48 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles48
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.15
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.06 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.15
Week-over-weekshift −0.06 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 15%
Neutral 85%
15% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets15%
Neutral85%
R-leaning outlets0%
15% of outlets classified by editorial lean
B
Pete Buttigieg endorses Benson for Michigan governor, hints at White House run
S
Exclusive / Progressives see polling, candidate momentum in Michigan
I
Democratic rising star Mallory McMorrow unexpectedly drops out of key Michigan Senate race
O
Meet the Democrats running in Michigan’s 95th House primary
D
Meet the Matthew Stafford running for the Michigan House
A
AAPAC endorses Alabas Farhat, Gary Schlack in Michigan House races
T
AOC endorses progressive Democrat in closely watched Michigan race for US Senate seat | US midterm elections 2026
F
Freep's pick in Michigan's 11th U.S. House district | Endorsement
M
Meet the candidates for Michigan House and Senate in Genesee County 2026 primary election
F
Freep nod for Michigan's 7th U.S. House District | Endorsement
Page 1 of 4
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified4 / 4deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-07-02
Endorsements113 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks