Democratic primary · August 4, 2026
Michigan house Democratic primary
Field of 2 Democratic candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 0d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Democratic primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
73
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (13.5pp).
Forecast CI width45
13.5pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution45 / 100
Measured13.5pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Democratic primary
primary-struct-v1 · high confidence · 4 polls + fundamentals1Bridget BrinkBridget Ann Brink is an American diplomat who served as the United States ambassador to Ukraine from 2022 to 2025. A member of the United St…
2William Lawrence
3Matt MaasdamThe 2026 United States House of Representatives elections in Michigan will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the 13 U.S. representatives…
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 4 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Brink | Maasdam | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 27 | Data for Progress | 533 · LV | 14 | 10 | +4 |
| Mar 26 | GQR | 500 · LV | 31 | 7 | +24 |
| Mar 17 | Strategic National | 300 · LV | 5 | 4 | +1 |
| Mar 8 | Impact Research | 500 · LV | 15 | 8 | +7 |
Endorsements · Democratic primary · 35 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yetBridget Brink · 23Matt Maasdam · 12
DBridget Brink23 endorsers
Most notable · Joe Tate · former speaker of the Michigan House of Representatives (2023–2025) from HD-09 (2019–present)
Elected officials13
Federal 3State 9Local 1
Elected officials · 13
- Joe Tate · former speaker of the Michigan House of Representatives (2023–2025) from HD-09 (2019–present)
- Adam Smith · WA-9 (1997–present)
- Jennifer Conlin · HD-48 (2023–present)
- Joey Andrews · HD-38 (2023–present)
- Lois Frankel · FL-22 (2013–present)
- Noah Arbit · HD-20 (2023–present)
- Sam Singh · SD-28 (2023–present)
- Andy Schor · mayor of Lansing (2018–present) and former state representative from the 68th district (2013–2018)
- David Bonior · former House whip (1991–2002) from MI-10 (1977–2003)
- Francis Spaniola · former HD-87 (1975–1990)
- Ingham County · Ingham County commissioner from the 4th district (2007–present)
- Joan Bauer · former HD-68 (2007–2012)
- Mark Meadows · former HD-69 (2006–2012) and former mayor of East Lansing (1997–2005, 2015–2019)
Organizations9
Organizations · 9
- EMILYs List
- Elect Democratic Women
- International Association of Bridge, Structural, Ornamental and Reinforcing Iron Workers · Local 25
- LiUNA · District Council
- Michigan Democratic Party · Veterans Caucus
- Michigan Education Association
- Michigan Machinists Council
- UNITE HERE · Local 24
- Vote Mama
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- Detroit Free Press
DMatt Maasdam12 endorsers
Most notable · Pat Ryan · NY-18 (2022–present)
Organizations8
Organizations · 8
- Bricklayers and Allied Craftworkers · Local 2
- End Citizens United
- International Association of Sheet Metal, Air, Rail and Transportation Workers
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers · Michigan State Conference and Local 665
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters · Local 243
- International Union of Painters and Allied Trades · Council 1M
- United Association · sociation
- VoteVets
Elected officials3
Federal 3State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 3
- Pat Ryan · NY-18 (2022–present)
- Mark Schauer · former MI-07 (2009–2011)
- Max Rose · former NY-11 (2019–2021)
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- The Detroit News
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-07-02In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
48 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles48
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.15
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.06 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.15
Week-over-weekshift −0.06 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 15%
Neutral 85%
15% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets15%
Neutral85%
R-leaning outlets0%
15% of outlets classified by editorial lean
B
Pete Buttigieg endorses Benson for Michigan governor, hints at White House run
S
Exclusive / Progressives see polling, candidate momentum in Michigan
I
Democratic rising star Mallory McMorrow unexpectedly drops out of key Michigan Senate race
O
Meet the Democrats running in Michigan’s 95th House primary
D
Meet the Matthew Stafford running for the Michigan House
A
AAPAC endorses Alabas Farhat, Gary Schlack in Michigan House races
T
AOC endorses progressive Democrat in closely watched Michigan race for US Senate seat | US midterm elections 2026
F
Freep's pick in Michigan's 11th U.S. House district | Endorsement
M
Meet the candidates for Michigan House and Senate in Genesee County 2026 primary election
F
Freep nod for Michigan's 7th U.S. House District | Endorsement
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Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 4deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-07-02
Endorsements113 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks