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Pollster · 19 of 1769

SurveyUSA

GRADE CWEIGHT TIER T4NEUTRAL LEAN★ AAPOR TI MEMBER</> Embed
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Polls scored
102
Mean error
5.2 pt
Signed bias
D+1.42
Aggregation weight
0.95

Pollster vs prediction market

From 897 race-polls · 17 matched markets
Pre-poll P(D) (avg)
70.9%
Market price the day before each poll dropped
Post-poll market shift
-3.3 pt
Average move within 24h of release (D+ = market moved toward D)
Market alignment
+10.1 pt
Net direction markets moved toward SurveyUSA's read
Composite quality score
0–100 · weighted of 5 measured components
54
of 100 · tier · moderate

Moderate quality. Worth checking individual signals before relying on this pollster's headline.

Aggregator weight47
Verification rate17
Sample size median70
Citation rate47
Outlier rate (inv.)not yet measured
Rater alignment97
Pollster vs editorial consensus
aligned

Across 83 graded races, SurveyUSA's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of -0.5pp. That's well-aligned with the consensus — useful as a sanity check, less useful as a contrarian signal.

Mean delta
-0.5pp
Median delta
-1.0pp
Std-dev
6.6pp
N graded
83
Sample races (links to detail):
us-governor-2024-mtus-governor-2024-ncus-governor-2024-nc
Recent activity
Total all time
897
Last 30d
3
Last 90d
16
Last 180d
36

Last poll 6/16/2026 (20d ago)· status active

Per-cycle debrief appearances
CycleRankPollsMAESigned bias
2022#13 / 3693.56 ptD+0.22 pp
2018#24 / 2547.83 ptD+3.38 pp
2016#2 / 1962.39 ptR+0.31 pp
2014#19 / 2197.49 ptD+6.74 pp
2012#2 / 1292.85 ptR+2.74 pp
2010#10 / 21104.24 ptR+3.75 pp
2008#3 / 544.64 ptR+2.81 pp
2004#4 / 10283.50 ptR+0.98 pp
2002#2 / 3114.12 ptD+1.93 pp
Recent polls