The 2008 Debrief · post-mortem · permanent archive
How did the polling industry do this cycle?
The 2008 industry MAE landed at 4.3pt — graded across 95 historical races with a known outcome — and 44 polls were analyzed across 11 pollsters. Signed bias +0.86pt: pollsters again systematically over-predicted Republicans.
INDUSTRY MAE
4.3pt
vs midterm avg
SIGNED BIAS
+0.86pt
R-leaning
POLLS · POLLSTERS
44
11 firms
RACES SCORED
95
w/ known outcome
Industry mean absolute error · 2002–2008
Per-pollster scorecard · 2008 · sorted by MAE
Signed bias · ±7.2pt
MAE · 0–7.2pt
Biggest-miss races · 2008
| Race | Expected | Actual | Miss | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| us-senate-2008-me | R+13.50 | R+22.75 | -9.3pt | R-margin underestimate |
| us-senate-2008-ak | D+8.00 | D+1.25 | -6.8pt | D-margin overestimate |
| us-senate-2008-va | D+26.00 | D+31.30 | 5.3pt | D-margin underestimate |
| us-governor-2008-wa | D+2.00 | D+6.48 | 4.5pt | D-margin underestimate |
| us-senate-2008-ia | D+21.00 | D+25.40 | 4.4pt | D-margin underestimate |
| us-senate-2008-or | D+5.50 | D+3.35 | -2.1pt | D-margin overestimate |
| us-senate-2008-nc | D+6.50 | D+8.47 | 2.0pt | D-margin underestimate |
| us-governor-2008-wv | D+46.00 | D+44.08 | -1.9pt | D-margin overestimate |