Pollster · 30 of 1769

Public Policy Polling

GRADE CWEIGHT TIER T4NEUTRAL LEAN★ AAPOR TI MEMBER</> Embed

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Polls scored

157

Mean error

5.8 pt

Signed bias

D+1.37

Aggregation weight

0.86

Pollster vs prediction market

From 2257 race-polls · 35 matched markets

Pre-poll P(D) (avg)

41.9%

Market price the day before each poll dropped

Post-poll market shift

-0.1 pt

Average move within 24h of release (D+ = market moved toward D)

Market alignment

+3.5 pt

Net direction markets moved toward Public Policy Polling's read

Composite quality score

0–100 · weighted of 5 measured components

of 100 · tier · moderate

Moderate quality. Worth checking individual signals before relying on this pollster's headline.

Aggregator weight43

Verification rate11

Sample size median85

Citation rate86

Outlier rate (inv.)not yet measured

Rater alignment80

Pollster vs editorial consensus

noisy

Across 183 graded races, Public Policy Polling's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of +2.4pp. Noisy — high variance vs the consensus, hard to characterize.

Mean delta

+2.4pp

Median delta

+2.0pp

Std-dev

8.8pp

N graded

183

Sample races (links to detail):

us-governor-2026-ne us-senate-2026-ak us-senate-special-2026-fl

Recent activity

Total all time

2257

Last 30d

Last 90d

Last 180d

Last poll 6/25/2026 (11d ago)· status active

Per-cycle debrief appearances

Cycle	Rank	Polls	MAE	Signed bias
2020	#16 / 20	7	8.15 pt	D+8.15 pp
2016	#10 / 19	12	4.59 pt	D+4.59 pp
2014	#9 / 21	21	4.00 pt	D+2.93 pp
2012	#6 / 12	29	3.66 pt	R+2.76 pp
2010	#15 / 21	24	5.95 pt	D+1.21 pp
2008	#1 / 5	8	3.04 pt	R+1.72 pp

Recent polls