Races · Senate · 2026 · SD

Senate · class II · open seat

Julian Beaudion vs Mike Rounds

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Safe R R +22.0 · 176 days to election · 3 polls · 4 markets Last poll 177d ago Markets 4d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 3 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe R · model 100% R

safe-r · low-tipping

Forecast · poliagg-v8

Predicted final margin

R +36.5

80% CI: R +54.0 → R +19.0 · win prob 0%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	3
Days to election	181
Residual σ	13.66pt
Generated	5/6/2026

▼ Compare with other models3 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

R +25.4

80% CI R +34.3 → R +20.8

CV MAE 7.21

bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman

R +26.5

80% CI R +30.6 → R +22.3

CV MAE 3.24

poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)

R +36.5

80% CI R +54.0 → R +19.0

CV MAE 13.66

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Show poll dots95% CI bandOverlay all methods|Toggle:

All polls · 3 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:3 of 3 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/14/2025	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	814	±3.3	RV	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned177d old+4 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. 177d old Poll was fielded 177 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Mike Rounds 52.0 · Julian Beaudion 30.0	poll arch
11/14/2025	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	814	±3.3	RV	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned177d old+4 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. 177d old Poll was fielded 177 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Mike Rounds 44.0 · Brian Bengs 31.0	poll arch
7/31/2025	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	524	±4.1	LV	flagged on verificationcommissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned+4 flagged on verification Automated verification flagged this poll: results sum to 69.0% (expected ~100; n=2 cands, floor=70). Either the scrape misread the source table or the source itself looks unusual. Cross-check the citation URL before relying on this row. commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. 283d old Poll was fielded 283 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Mike Rounds 41.0 · Brian Bengs 28.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 2 total

Mike Rounds (R)

2 endorsements · source

Elected officials (1)

Donald Trump — president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present) [ 4 ]

Other (1)

AIPAC — [ 5 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Safe R	Oct 14	-22.0	-18.0	-4.0
Inside Elections	Safe R	Aug 12	-22.0	-18.0	-4.0
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe R	Aug 12	-22.0	-18.0	-4.0

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 6 months ago (11/14/2025) last market quote 4 days ago rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/3/2026 Safe R R+22.0 via polls