Races · Senate · 2026 · South Carolina
Senate · class II · open seat
Annie Andrews vs Lindsey Graham
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 1 poll has landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedRepublican incumbent Lindsey Graham faces Democratic challenger Annie Andrews in South Carolina's U.S. Senate race on November 3, 2026. The contest is rated **likely-R** with a polling-derived margin of 5 points in Graham's favor. The most recent poll, conducted by Impact Research through March 1, 2026 (n=700 LV), shows Graham leading Andrews 47%–42% [1]. Prediction markets price Graham's chances between 82.5% and 87%, with Kalshi at 87% [4] and Polymarket at 82.5% [5].
CITATIONS · lean-r · high-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
95
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width68
20.5pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution68 / 100
Measured20.5pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement54
10.7pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution54 / 100
Measured10.7pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity88
1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution88 / 100
Measured1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +13.5
80% CI: R +23.7 → R +3.2 · win prob 5%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 4 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.01pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +15.6
80% CI R +21.0 → R +13.2
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +4.9
80% CI R +7.4 → R +2.3
CV MAE 1.98
consensusMarket-implied
R +11.1
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 12¢3 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 33 points less bullish on D than polling. Markets 12% · polls 45%.
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 202…” | 14¢ | 86¢ | -4¢ | — | +2 |
| Predictit “Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in South Ca…” | 7¢ | 93¢ | -10¢ | — | -5 |
| Kalshi “South Carolina Senate winner?” | 15¢ | 86¢ | +1¢ | $6K | +3 |
Predictit sits 5¢ below consensus.
All polls · 4 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 21, 26 | Impact Research+1For · Internal D-aligned | 700 · LV | D-LEAN | — | +10.7d lean | 45 · 48 |
| Feb 28, 26 | Impact Research+2For · Internal D-aligned | 700 · LV | D-LEAN | — | +10.7d lean | 42 · 47 |
| Nov 21, 25 | Public Policy Polling+1For · Internal D-aligned | 704 · unknown | NEUTRAL | D +0.9104 tracked | +2.4noisy | 36 · 42 |
| Nov 21, 25 | Public Policy Polling+1For · Internal D-aligned | 704 · unknown | NEUTRAL | D +0.9104 tracked | +2.4noisy | 41 |
Endorsements · 19 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet7
12
Endorsements tracked
Annie Andrews7 · 37%
Lindsey Graham12 · 63%
Total19
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RLindsey Graham12 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations6
Organizations · 6
- AIPAC
- ClearPath Foundation
- National Right to Life Committee
- Paul Dans · former Office of Personnel Management chief of staff (2020) and Project 2025 architect
- Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America
- Tea Party Express
Elected officials4
Federal 2State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 4
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Henry McMaster · governor of South Carolina (2017–present)
- Ben Carson · former secretary of housing and urban development (2017–2021)
- Tim Scott · South Carolina (2013–present)
Other2
Other · 2
- Mike Flynn · 24th United States National Security Advisor
- Tucker Carlson · conservative political commentator
DAnnie Andrews7 endorsers
Most notable · Jaime Harrison · former chair of the Democratic National Committee (2021–2025)
Organizations4
Organizations · 4
- 314 Action · Fund
- EMILYs List
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- Vote Mama
Elected officials2
Federal 0State 2Local 0
Elected officials · 2
- JA Moore · state representative from the 15th district (2018–present)
- Michael Rivers · state representative from the 121st district (2016–present)
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Jaime Harrison · former chair of the Democratic National Committee (2021–2025)
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-30Lindsey GrahamP60007697 ↗
Receipts
$6.2M
Disburse
$17.6M
Cash on hand
$4.2M
Debts
$0
Cumulative receipts · 6 filings
Top industries
Securities & investment$29.5K
Securities & investment · $29.5K
- Blackstone · $29.5K
Individuals $29.5K · PACs $0
Electric utilities$26.1K
Electric utilities · $26.1K
- Duke Energy · $26.1K
Individuals $26.1K · PACs $0
Top contributors
INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS$48.7K
BLACKSTONE$29.5K
BLOOM ENERGY$26.3K
DUKE ENERGY$26.1K
VERIZON$22.0K
Annie AndrewsS6SC04239 ↗
Receipts
$8.1M
Disburse
$5.2M
Cash on hand
$2.9M
Debts
$0
Cumulative receipts · 5 filings
Top industries
Health professionals$38.5K
Health professionals · $38.5K
- Lurie Children's Hospital of Chicago · $11.1K
- Cincinnati Childrens Hospital · $9.6K
- Vanderbilt University Medical Center · $9.1K
- Medical University of South Carolina · $8.7K
Individuals $38.5K · PACs $0
Education$13.6K
Education · $13.6K
- Stanford University · $13.6K
Individuals $13.6K · PACs $0
Top contributors
MUSC$51.9K
STANFORD UNIVERSITY$13.6K
LURIE CHILDREN'S HOSPITAL OF CHICAGO$11.1K
PRISMA HEALTH$10.1K
THE RICHMAN GROUP$10.0K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$5.7M
D side
$730.0K · 13%
R side
$5.0M · 87%
Top spender
Security Is Strengt…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Security Is Strength PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $4.0M | 70% | for Lindsey Graham |
| COURAGEOUS CONSERVATIVES PAC other · boosts D
| D | $713.1K | 12% | against Lindsey Graham |
| FELLOWSHIP PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $550.0K | 10% | for Lindsey Graham |
| AMERICAN MISSION super pac · boosts R
| R | $374.3K | 7% | for Lindsey Graham |
| PALMETTO ACTION super pac · boosts R
| R | $78.3K | 1% | for Lindsey Graham |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Lean R1
Lean R · 1 rater
- The Economist · May 21
Likely R2
Likely R · 2 raters
- Inside Elections · Apr 22
- RealClearPolitics · May 18
Safe R2
Safe R · 2 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Apr 12
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Mar 3
The Cook Political Report
Safe RThe Economist
Lean RInside Elections
Likely RRealClearPolitics
Likely RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
101 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles101
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.18
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.19 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.18
Week-over-weekshift +0.19 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 18%
Neutral 82%
18% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets18%
Neutral82%
R-leaning outlets0%
18% of outlets classified by editorial lean
M
New candidate has the best shot yet at booting ‘swamp creature’ Lindsey Graham
M
11 rumors about Lindsey Graham, examined
P
Lindsey Graham expects housing package to become law despite Trump's election bill demands
N
A South Carolina race tests the strength of a Trump endorsement.
A
South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham: Trump Will Seize Strait Of Hormuz If Iran Talks Fail
J
Lindsey Graham Was Viciously Booed at a Trump Rally in His Home State
A
War hawk Lindsey Graham under pressure as shock poll tightens South Carolina senate race
A
War hawk Lindsey Graham under pressure as shock poll tightens South Carolina senate race
S
Does image show Lindsey Graham posing with shirtless UFC fighters?
W
2026 South Carolina primary election results
Page 1 of 4
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified4 / 4deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested3 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-30
Endorsements25 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks