Races · Governor · 2026 · Nebraska
Governor · open seat
Lynne Walz vs Jim Pillen
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean R · model 99% R
Polling average rates this race Lean R (R+4.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+22.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+33.5 (10th pctile) to R+11.5 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
This race was decisive in 28.9% of chamber-control simulations — one of the most consequential seats this cycle.
Uncertainty score: 100/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (22.0pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · lean-r · high-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
100
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width73
22.0pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution73 / 100
Measured22.0pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement83
16.6pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution83 / 100
Measured16.6pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +22.5
80% CI: R +33.5 → R +11.5 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 5 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.57pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +21.5
80% CI R +27.0 → R +15.2
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +5.9
80% CI R +8.0 → R +3.8
CV MAE 1.60
consensusMarket-implied
R +9.2
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 16¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 27 points less bullish on D than polling. Markets 16% · polls 43%.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
1 polls · through Apr 7, 2026 · latest Public Policy Polling
Jim Pillen
VoteHub38.0%
VoteHub
Polling average38.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg45.3%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average45.3%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 7.3 pt below our average
Lynne Walz
VoteHub33.0%
VoteHub
Polling average33.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg42.5%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average42.5%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 9.5 pt below our average
VoteHub's independent average across 1 polls (through Apr 7, 2026): Jim Pillen 38.0%, Lynne Walz 33.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 5 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 26 | Lake Research Partners+2For · Internal D-aligned | 900 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +17.7noisy | 45 · 47 |
| Apr 6, 26 | Public Policy Polling+2For · Internal D-aligned | 670 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +0.9104 tracked | +2.4noisy | 33 · 38 |
| Apr 6, 26 | Public Policy Polling+2For · Internal D-aligned | 670 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +0.9104 tracked | +2.4noisy | 33 · 38 |
| Dec 16, 25 | Lake Research Partners+1For · Internal D-aligned | 900 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +17.7noisy | 43 · 48 |
| Jul 28, 25 | Lake Research Partners+1For · Internal D-aligned | 900 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +17.7noisy | 39 · 51 |
Endorsements · 2 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet1
1
Endorsements tracked
Lynne Walz1 · 50%
Jim Pillen1 · 50%
Total2
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RJim Pillen1 endorser
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
DLynne Walz1 endorser
Most notable · Ben Nelson · former U.S. senator (2001–2013) and former governor of Nebraska (1991–1999)
Elected officials1
Federal 0State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Ben Nelson · former U.S. senator (2001–2013) and former governor of Nebraska (1991–1999)
IRick Beard0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · May 20
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- RealClearPolitics · Jun 4
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 1
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RRealClearPolitics
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
8 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
8 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles8
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.62
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.33 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.62
Week-over-weekshift +0.33 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 62%
Neutral 38%
62% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets62%
Neutral38%
R-leaning outlets0%
62% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
Nebraska Governor Election 2026: Latest Polls
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Nebraska First Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
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Nebraska Second Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
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Nebraska U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
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Nebraska’s gubernatorial candidates raking in fundraising ahead of general election
Y
Nebraska: Walz Campaign Says New Poll Shows Pillen’s Vulnerability
N
Nebraska Primary Election Results
N
Nebraska officials certify results for May 12 primary election that ran ‘very smoothly’
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified3 / 5deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements2 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage8 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks