Races · Governor · 2026 · NE

Governor · open seat

Lynne Walz vs Jim Pillen

← MN Governor NH Governor →

Likely R R +5.0 · 176 days to election · 1 polls · 4 markets Last poll 33d ago Markets 4d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 1 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely R · model 98% R · market gap 12pp

likely-r · low-tipping · uncertainty-high · market-disagreement-medium

Forecast · poliagg-v8

Predicted final margin

R +29.4

80% CI: R +46.9 → R +11.9 · win prob 2%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	1
Days to election	181
Residual σ	13.66pt
Generated	5/6/2026

▼ Compare with other models3 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

R +21.4

80% CI R +23.4 → R +11.1

CV MAE 7.21

bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman

R +9.5

80% CI R +13.7 → R +5.3

CV MAE 3.30

poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)

R +29.4

80% CI R +46.9 → R +11.9

CV MAE 13.66

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Show poll dots95% CI bandOverlay all methods|Toggle:

All polls · 1 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:1 of 1 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
4/7/2026	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	670	±3.8	RV	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligneduncorrelated with editorial consensus+3 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Jim Pillen 38.0 · Lynne Walz 33.0 · Rick Beard 12.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 1 total

Jim Pillen (R)

1 endorsement · source

Elected officials (1)

Donald Trump — president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present) [ 9 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Safe R	Sep 11	-5.0	-18.0	+13.0
Inside Elections	Safe R	Aug 28	-5.0	-18.0	+13.0
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe R	Sep 4	-5.0	-18.0	+13.0

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 5 weeks ago (4/7/2026) last market quote 4 days ago rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/3/2026 Likely R R+5.0 via polls